NFL Futures: AFC East Win Totals and Record Predictions for Bills, Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots
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The NFL schedule was released and one way to make a decent coin is betting on your favorite team’s projected win totals entering the season.
You can find some good value on NFL win total props following the draft and before any more trades happen or any season-altering injuries. In this article, I focus on an AFC East division that has one of the toughest schedules in the league this season.
Each team will have a breakdown of the 2020 season and what to expect with their schedule, returners, newcomers, my over/under win total pick and record prediction. Let’s kick it off with the defending East-champs, the New England Patriots.
New England Patriots
- 2019 Record: 12-4
- 2020 Strength of Schedule: 137-118-1 (.537%) – Toughest (32nd)
- 2020 Win Total (FanDuel and DraftKings): Over 9 (-110) / Under 9 (+100)
The year was 2008 the last time the New England Patriots had not won the AFC East, marking 11 consecutive division titles under Tom Brady. New England has won the East 17 of the last 20 years with Miami sneaking in two (2000, 2008) and New York one (2002). Now that the undisputed legendary quarterback has moved on from the just as legendary coach and organization; how do the Patriots fare in their first season after losing the greatest quarterback of all-time?
The playoff production was unmatched during the Brady-era; Six Super Bowl wins, 41 playoff games, 30 playoff wins, 11,179 yards, and 73 touchdowns — all NFL records by the way. While it doesn’t appear they’ll recreate the same type of success with Jarrett Stidham, please do not write the Patriots off just yet.
The defense did take some hit this offseason losing Jamie Collins (DET), Danny Shelton (DET), and Kyle Van Noy (MIA) in free agency. They resigned Devin McCourty to keep the same secondary that forced 17 interceptions, 55 passes defended, four forced fumbles, and two touchdowns among a core unit of six from a year ago; Patrick Chung, Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, plus twins Devin and Jason McCourty.
You guessed it, that secondary ranked first in Pro Football Focus’ defensive back rankings after 2019. The defense as a whole hauled in 25 interceptions and forced the lowest passer rating in the NFL (67.3). New England was also the only team to record more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed (13) last season.
In the NFL Draft, the Patriots went defense their first three draft picks and didn’t select another defender until the sixth round stacking up with offensive lineman, tight ends, and a kicker in the mid-rounds only in Bill Belichick fashion. New England selected Kyle Dugger in the second round, who is now the highest-ever Division II drafted player, to succeed the 32-year-old-Chung, and drafted LB Josh Uche and DL Anfernee Jennings to compete for starting positions when camp begins.
The defense will carry the load this season, more than ever, with the NFL’s toughest schedule. Let’s take a look at the Patriots 2020 schedule and predictions for each game.
| Week 1 | Vs Dolphins | Patriots Win | Week 10 | Vs Ravens, SNF | Ravens Win |
| Week 2 | At Seahawks, SNF | Seahawks Win | Week 11 | At Texans | Patriots Win |
| Week 3 | Vs Raiders | Patriots Win | Week 12 | Vs Cardinals | Cardinals Win |
| Week 4 | At Chiefs | Chiefs Win | Week 13 | At L.A. Chargers | Patriots Win |
| Week 5 | Vs Broncos | Patriots Win | Week 14 | At L.A. Rams | Rams Win |
| Week 7 | Vs 49ers | 49ers Win | Week 15 | At Dolphins | Patriots Win |
| Week 8 | At Bills | Bills Win | Week 16 | Vs Bills | Patriots Win |
| Week 9 | At NY Jets, MNF | Patriots Win | Week 17 | Vs NY Jets | Patriots Win |
2020 Record Prediction: 9-7
The schedule is no joke for New England, but the last seven games of the season are very winnable to make the playoffs. The Broncos, Cardinals, and Raiders all reloaded teams they’ll face while at home, and we already know what the 49ers and Ravens bring to the table. On the road, the Chiefs and Seahawks will be a cut above the rest while the Chargers, Rams, and Texans are capable of sneaking away victories against the Brady-less Pats.
The offense scored more on the road last season (27.2) compared to at home (23.9) and that’s going to be a growing pain in 2020, attempting to improve on that oddly low 23.9 points per game (12th) at home from 2019. Offensively, Sony Michel, N’Keal Harry, James White, and Mohamed Sanu will be the focus of the near future in addition to tight end draft selections Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene.
That’s a solid starting supporting cast for Stidham, and New England ran the ball 27.2 times per game last season (10th), and 31.2 in 2018 (3rd). We may see a lot more runs in 2020, similar to 2018, which will work for a unit that averaged 6.8 first downs per game rushing last season (8th). New England called a run on 40.64% (14th) of plays in 2019, and that number will be closer to the 2018 total of 45.09% (7th).
Julian Edelman could be on the block after being left out of the ex-Pats party going on in Tampa, and once the season starts, he’ll be 34-years-old, and I’m sure in his mind that means less time for another Super Bowl. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mid-round draft pick be the outcome of an Edelman to Green Bay, Minnesota, and Seattle to name a few NFC options with cap, and Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Tennessee as teams in the AFC that have space and a need for a short-term veteran receiver.
In my worst-case scenario, I gave New England a 9-7 record because I do believe the defense will repeat as one of the better units in the league despite the tough schedule. That secondary is elite and barring any injuries, they’ll post another repeat top 10 season statistically. Belichick has a model and coaching alone will earn the Pats some close wins in 2020, and the Pats are farther along than the Jets and Dolphins are despite losing their franchise centerpiece for absolutely nothing.
The Pick: Over 9 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills
- 2019 Record: 10-6
- 2020 Strength of Schedule: 134-121-1 (0.525%) – T-5th Toughest (T-28th)
- 2020 Win Total (FanDuel): Over 8.5 (-160) / Under 8.5 (+135)
- 2020 Win Total (DraftKings): Over 9 (+103) / Under 9 (-125)
The iron is hot in the AFC East and the Buffalo Bills are striking. The addition of Stefon Diggs stretches the field for one of the biggest arms in all of football and gives the Bills a legitimate chance of winning the division for the first time since 1995.
Quarterback Josh Allen had a deep ball completion percentage of 25% (33rd) and completed 17.1% of his passes under pressure (34th) last season per PlayerProfiler.com. Those numbers left a lot to be desired, but one area Allen was one of the best in the league was in the red zone. He attempted 50 passes completing 24 of them (48%) for 12 touchdowns to no interceptions. He also carried the ball 22 times in the red zone and was one of the most-feared dual-threat quarterbacks in the league with 109 carries (2nd), 22 in the red zone (2nd), 510 rushing yards (3rd), and 9 rushing touchdowns (1st) — trailing only Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray.
Allen left a lot of first downs, yards, and points on the field in 2019 with errant and overthrown passes, but Diggs and an offensive line getting another season under its belt can solve part of that problem. In a clean pocket, Allen completed 67% of his passes which was underwhelmingly ranked 34th. Only two wide receivers saw over 50 receptions for the Bills last season and in 2019, Diggs’ recorded the second-lowest receptions (63) and targets (94) of his five-year career but posted a career-high in receiving yards (1,130).
Now a trio of Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley provide some speed and better opportunities to improve on Allen’s 18 of 72 completions on passes beyond 20 yards. His supporting cast efficiency was an abysmal -3.38 (23rd) last year so Diggs and more touches for Devin Singletary and newly-drafted running back Zack Moss will increase that number.
The Bills didn’t change much on the offensive line but added some minor free agency talent, but on the defensive side of the ball, they’ll try to regain that dominance despite losing some key pieces. Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander retired to they signed A.J. Klein as a replacement, added Josh Norman for cornerback depth at No. 2 or the Nickel, and Mario Addison and Vernon Butler in free agency plus drafted A.J. Epenesa in the draft to battle the loss of Shaq Lawson to Miami.
If anything, they may have improved all-around as a team, but with their schedule being as rough as it is, let’s where Buffalo can get wins in 2020.
| Week 1 | Vs NY Jets | Bills Win | Week 9 | Vs Seahawks | Seahawks Win |
| Week 2 | At Dolphins | Bills Win | Week 10 | At Cardinals | Bills Win |
| Week 3 | Vs L.A. Rams | Rams Win | Week 12 | L.A. Chargers | Bills Win |
| Week 4 | At Raiders | Bills Win | Week 13 | At 49ers, MNF | 49ers Win |
| Week 5 | At Titans | Titans Win | Week 14 | Vs Steelers, SNF | Bills Win |
| Week 6 | Vs Chiefs, TNF | Chiefs Win | Week 15 | At Broncos | Bills Win |
| Week 7 | At NY Jets | Bills Win | Week 16 | At Patriots, MNF | Patriots Win |
| Week 8 | Vs Patriots | Bills Win | Week 17 | Vs Dolphins | Bills Win |
2020 Record Prediction: 10-6
In my worst-case scenario, this Buffalo Bills team should finish 9-7 or better. Giving them a 5-1 AFC East record with the only loss coming to the Patriots, it’s very likely the Bills can claim their first division crown since 1995 when Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas ran the show. The Bills are also +160 on DraftKings to win the AFC East after being +325 on some books before Brady left New England — some serious movement.
The last eight games for Buffalo are a tough road to the playoffs and over the first half of the season, they have a very good opportunity at starting 6-2 for the second-straight season. Buffalo lost the last three of four games in 2019 to finish 10-6, and that will be their task this season, finishing a season rather than starting one on fire.
Even with the tough schedule, Buffalo has the defensive capabilities to keep a lot of their opponents within striking range. The trade to acquire Stefon Diggs speaks to volume to their let’s win-now approach with the Patriots as vulnerable as they’ve ever been. Expect Buffalo to strike while the iron is hot and you should too even if the odds aren’t great. The 8.5 is a lock (-160) and the over 9 is good money as Buffalo is most likely to win the division.
The Pick: Over 9 (+103) at DraftKings Sportsbook
New York Jets
- 2019 Record: 7-9
- 2020 Strength of Schedule: 136-119-1 (0.533%) – 2nd toughest – (31st)
- 2020 Win Total (FanDuel and DraftKings): Over 6.5 (-110) / Under 6.5 (-110)
When quarterback Sam Darnold went down with a ligament tear in his non-throwing thumb, everybody knew Le’Veon Bell was getting the ball and the Jets season went downhill from that point on. Now, granted the Jets did win six of their final eight games of the season, they came against one playoff team that rested its starters in Week 17 (Buffalo) and four out of the first five that picked in the 2020 Draft. The Jets offensive woes held them back in 2019, and 2020 is looking much of the same.
Bell was one of the most underwhelming players in all of football last season, and again he’ll enter 2020 as the primary weapon without much help. Robby Anderson left town, so the Jets drafted Denzel Mims to replace him. Giving management it’s credit for that superb draft pick, it’s still nowhere enough to support for their franchise quarterback. Even with Breshad Perriman and Josh Doctson as added free agents, they lack the talent to alter the offense.
Last season, the offense averaged 17.2 points per game (31st), allowed the fourth-most sacks (52), and tied-fifth for most quarterback hits allowed (106). Not to throw salt onto injury, but Darnold had the third-most time to throw (2.92 seconds) of all quarterbacks according to NFL’s NextGenStats leaving you to question how much was Darnold, his offensive line, or receiving corps to blame.
The rumor you might have heard that Bell faced the most eight-man fronts in the box than any other back contributing to his sharp decline is a myth. He finished 13th last season among running backs that had 200 carries or more, facing eight-men fronts 17.14% of the time according to NFL’s NextGenStats. Compare that to David Montgomery (19.83%), Aaron Jones (20.76%), Josh Jacobs (20.25%), and Mark Ingram (22.28%); all backs who saw more eight-man fronts on fewer carries while finishing with more yards than Bell.
Bell’s second season in New York doesn’t seem any different this time around and with three offensive linemen questionable for the start of training camp and a rookie Left Tackle (Mekhi Becton) taken 11th overall in the draft. Darnold won’t have the support he’ll need this year offensively and the front-sevens they are going to face are almost surreal.
The Jets did sign five offensive linemen in free agency and the addition of cornerback Bryce Hall in the fifth round of the NFL Draft was a nice late-round snag. New York will rely on their defense yet again — and they exercised captain and safety Jamal Adams fifth-year option keeping him with the Gang Green until 2021.
The rest of the defense is centered around the three young stars, Quinnen Williams, C.J. Mosley, and Adams. The rest of the defense leaves you wondering if the Jets will be able to improve on their mediocre 22.4 points per game allowed (16th), 17th-ranked passing defense (236.2 ypg), and 21 takeaways (T-16th). The Jets signed three free-agent corners and 2020 should be a wake-up call for Adam Gase and Joe Douglas if this team performs as it looks on paper.
In 2020, the Jets opponents with what I would categorize as an above-average defensive front seven are the Bills, Broncos, Browns, Chargers, Colts, 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks. Some monster talent on those teams not to mention some pretty darn good ones in Arizona, Kansas City, and New England too. Banking on the Jets to win seven games? Well, where are they coming from?
| Week 1 | At Bills | Bills Win | Week 9 | Vs Patriots, MNF | Patriots Win |
| Week 2 | Vs 49ers | 49ers Win | Week 10 | At Dolphins | Jets Win |
| Week 3 | At Colts | Colts Win | Week 12 | Vs Dolphins | Dolphins Win |
| Week 4 | Vs Broncos, TNF | Broncos Win | Week 13 | Vs Raiders | Jets Win |
| Week 5 | Vs Cardinals | Jets Win | Week 14 | At Seahawks | Seahawks Win |
| Week 6 | At L.A. Chargers | Chargers Win | Week 15 | At L.A. Rams | Rams Win |
| Week 7 | Vs Bills | Bills Win | Week 16 | Vs Browns | Jets Win |
| Week 8 | At Chiefs | Chiefs Win | Week 17 | At Patriots | Patriots Win |
2020 Record Prediction: 4-12
I might be on the unfavorable side when it comes to the Jets this season, but I don’t see a successful season in 2020 for them at all. The first nine games are ridiculous and they would be likely to win three of nine games, and the final four games for a playoff push are just as difficult. The only significant winning streak the Jets may have is when they play Miami back to back and Las Vegas from Weeks 10-13 with a bye week in there.
The Jets haven’t won more than two road games in a season since 2016, and only four times in the past decade have New York won three road games or more. This is the toughest road schedule in the league, and I’d be surprised if New York came away with two road wins this year.
I’m taking the Jets under 6.5 wins this season as their road woes will continue in 2020 with three West-Coast trips, two Mid-West trips, and three AFC East battles that they’ve gone 5-13 in since 2017. The talent isn’t there to win 7-8 games in 2020, and the Jets’ late-run of six wins in eight weeks to close the season in 2019, was expected against four of the first five teams selecting in the draft.
The Pick: Under 6.5 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Miami Dolphins
- 2019 Record: 5-11
- 2020 Strength of Schedule: 135-120-1 (.529%) – 3rd Toughest (30th)
- 2020 Win Total (FanDuel and DraftKings): Over 6 (-120) / Under 6 (+100)
Tank for Tua campaign in Miami is finally complete. The NFL Draft took ages to arrive for Miami, but they put together a stellar draft class in hopes of improving on their 5-11 season last year. The Dolphins started 2019, 0-7 before winning thee of the next four home games, and closing out the season 5-4.
It’s unknown if Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua Tagovailoa will be the starting quarterback, but the Dolphins have had a different leading passer in the past three seasons (Fitzpatrick, Cutler, Tannehill). There have been seven quarterbacks to start a game since 2017 for the Dolphins and that revolving door at QB may have been finally closed off with Tagovailoa.
On the defensive side of the ball, Miami has the best cornerback duo and most expensive duo in the league with Byron Jones ($82.5M) and Xavien Howard ($75.25M), investing $32M combined per season on the two corners. They also stole LB Kyle Van Noy, LB Elandon Roberts, and C Ted Karras from New England, and added DE Shaq Lawson, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, and OT Ereck Flowers as game-changers on the offensive and defensive lines. Miami signed former Eagles running back Jordan Howard and traded for Matt Breida to alleviate the demand for the passing attack from Fitzpatrick or Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins schedule provided them with another opportunity to a top-five or top-10 draft selection, and with the rebuild started and going smoothly, that might not be a bad idea. Miami has played New York and New England well over the past few seasons and will have some winnable games versus the Bengals, Cardinals, Chargers, Jaguars, and Raiders in 2020.
| Week 1 | At Patriots | Patriots Win | Week 9 | At Cardinals | Cardinals Win |
| Week 2 | Vs Bills | Bills Win | Week 10 | Vs NY Jets | Jets Win |
| Week 3 | At Jaguars, TNF | Dolphins Win | Week 12 | At NY Jets | Dolphins Win |
| Week 4 | Vs Seahawks | Seahawks Win | Week 13 | Vs Bengals | Bengals Win |
| Week 5 | At 49ers | 49ers Win | Week 14 | Vs Chiefs | Chiefs Win |
| Week 6 | At Broncos | Broncos Win | Week 15 | Vs Patriots | Patriots Win |
| Week 7 | Vs L.A. Chargers | Dolphins Win | Week 16 | At Raiders | Raiders Win |
| Week 8 | Vs L.A. Rams | Dolphins Win | Week 17 | At Bills | Bills Win |
2020 Record Prediction: 4-12
The Dolphins have gone 13-17 (43.3%) in the AFC East and 9-27 overall (25%) on the road since 2015. Their struggles away from Miami continued in 2019, except versus New England, who’ve they’ve beat three consecutive seasons in Florida. Giving Miami a split with New England and New York, a home win versus the traveling Chargers and road victory over Jacksonville gives them four wins. Traveling across the country for 50/50 games versus Arizona, Denver, and Las Vegas will be the toughest tasks on the schedule.
Miami won’t be a winning football team in 2020, but the days of the Dolphins being laughable are near-gone. After selecting Tua (1st), OT Austin Jackson (1st), CB Noah Igbinoghene (1st), G Robert Hunt (2nd), and DT Raekwon Davis (2nd) in the first two rounds, Miami put together one of the best draft classes built around Tua as the franchise quarterback.
I don’t see Miami winning seven games this season with the toughness of the schedule, but in 2021, watch out for the Dolphins, especially if Tua is under center.
The Pick: Under 6 (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @VaughnDalzell.