NFL Futures: Best 2021 NFL Draft Odds & Bets
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With the 2020 NFL Draft behind us, mock drafters have already started to work on their 2021 editions. On Monday morning, Mel Kiper was on ESPN’s SportsCenter to talk about the top five players on his 2021 big board. DraftKings Sportsbook has also followed suit by posting the lines for next year’s draft, so let’s take a closer look and check out some of the early props.
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Top Pick In The Draft
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence (-305) is the favorite to be the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, but it’s worth noting that a lot can change between now and then. Tua Tagovailoa is a great example because he was expected to be the sure-fire No. 1 pick in 2020 at the start of the college football season. By draft day, however, Joe Burrow was the unquestioned top pick while Tagovailoa fell to fifth.
Lawrence has an easy path to first overall because he plays in the ACC, and the Tigers probably won’t lose a regular-season game again this year. However, his play fell off in 2019 compared to 2018, and another year like that might make some people question him for the top slot.
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields (+300) might offer some value if you think he can duplicate his success in 2019 and outperform Lawrence. Oregon offensive lineman Penei Sewell (+400) is the only other player inside of 15/1. We’re looking at guys like D’Eriq King (+1600), Micah Parsons (+2500), Jamie Newman (+3300), Alex Leatherwood (+3300) and Gregory Rousseau (+3300) as the next players in line.
First Quarterback Drafted
The story here is pretty much the same as in the previous section, so we won’t go over this too much. Remember that King is now the quarterback of the Miami Hurricanes, which is why he’s this high on the board. Newman is now the lead man at Georgia. The challenge is that while some of these guys might put up good seasons, it looks like it will be hard to beat Lawrence in terms of measurables and accomplishments.
First Offensive Lineman Drafted
Sewell (-400) is head-and-shoulders above the crowd in this realm, and he’s a heavy favorite to be taken first among linemen. Leatherwood (+400), Walker Little (+700), Sam Cosmi (+1200), and Jaylen Mayfield (+1400) are the only other players on the board. I’d love to see a Field option, as that would be my bet here. I view this is as more of a crapshoot than you might think. Little was expected to be one of the top offensive linemen when he declared, but he suffered a dislocated knee last season. I don’t have a good option for you here, but I definitely wouldn’t lay -400 on Sewell this early.
First Wide Receiver Drafted
If you saw Mel Kiper’s Big Board, you noticed that Ja’Marr Chase starts the year as the No. 5 receiver overall. He’s at +100 to be the first receiver taken while DeVonta Smith (+400), Jaylen Waddle (+400), Rashod Bateman (+700) and Tylan Wallace (+700) are next in line.
Production is going to matter here, and I’d be a bit worried about the LSU and Alabama guys as they won’t have Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa hurling them the ball this year. I wouldn’t mind taking a shot with Tylan Wallace as he’s a special player. With Spencer Sanders and Chuba Hubbard back, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are going to have one of the most explosive offenses in the country. That should help Wallace’s case.
First Running Back Drafted
There are just four names on the board for this prop, and they are Travis Etienne (-125), Najee Harris (+150), Chuba Hubbard (+300) and Kylin Hill (+450). Similar to the offensive lineman prop, I’d love a Field option here. As we saw with Clyde Edwards-Helaire — and the entire running back class in 2020 — scouts have really different opinions on these guys.
If I had to throw a dart here, I’d put a small bet on Harris. Alabama has a stable of running backs, so be wary, but I just don’t think they’re going to be airing it out as much this year with Mac Jones under center. If they lean on the run more, Harris could have a good opportunity to shine and make his way up the draft boards.
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.