NFL Futures: Best Bet for AFC Champion (2020)
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With the 2020 NFL Draft now behind us and free agency close behind, team identities are starting to take shape for the upcoming season. When that season might begin or how it might look is still anyone’s guess, but as fans (and bettors), we have no choice but to look forward.
The likely suspects to win the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs (+280) and Baltimore Ravens (+330), are the clear favorites behind two of the best quarterbacks in the conference. The next tier of candidates also features some familiar names in the New England Patriots (+1000), Pittsburgh Steelers (+1000), Buffalo Bills (+1200), and Indianapolis Colts (+1200).
Looking a little further down the list, however, is where I currently see the most value with a team that may have came just a half away from playing in the Super Bowl. Let’s look at the best value picks to win the AFC, via odds posted by our friends over at BetMGM.
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Despite constant criticism and talk of being on the hot seat, Texans head coach Bill O’Brien has quietly won the AFC South in four of his six seasons at the helm. Internally, his success has not gone unnoticed. He is now the general manager as well, taking on a Bill Belichick-type role of full control.
With O’Brien seemingly secured, his first large order of business will be protecting franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson. After Houston selected him with the 12th overall pick in 2017, Watson popped in 2018, earning Pro Bowl honors with 4,165 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and a 103.1 QB rating in his first full season as the starter.
While Watson’s statistics might have fallen slightly last season, his leadership ability definitely gained some ground. After a 10-6 season that saw much of his team riddled with injuries, Watson led the Texans to his first-ever playoff victory against a Bills team that had them dead to rights. Trailing 16-0 late in the third quarter, Watson ran for a touchdown and threw another, and the Texans stormed back to win, 22-19, in overtime.
The AFC Championship Game in Houston looked all but in reach a week later, as the Texans went up 24-0 on the Chiefs just before halftime in the Divisional Round. That’s when the defensive wheels fell off. The Chiefs proceeded to score 51 points before time expired, sending the Texans into a long, tortuous offseason.
Much has been made of O’Brien’s first offseason as GM, most notably his trade of fan-favorite, All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals. While he’s no doubt an incredible talent, I strongly believe that receivers don’t win games. I don’t see this significantly impacting the 2020 team that takes the field. In fact, adding Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks more than makes up for Hopkins’ departure.
Additionally, O’Brien secured Watson’s main protector by signing OT Laremy Tunsil to a three-year extension and shored up the secondary with Michael Thomas.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Texans undoubtedly need five-time All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt to remain healthy this season. However, they also got a big boost in 2019 from Zach Cunningham, who recorded a team-high 142 tackles.
Although they certainly need to keep making strides from where they left off last season, the Texans are the best remaining value to make a splash in the AFC at 20-1 odds. If they can get back to the Divisional Round, the odds are long enough to then hedge against should you doubt them taking the next step.
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.