NFL Futures: Best Bet for Most Passing Touchdowns (2019)

It’s always interesting to speculate on which quarterback will lead the NFL in passing touchdowns the following season. In 2018, passing touchdowns saw a significant increase from the previous three years. So much excitement is swirling around numerous quarterbacks and the potential heights they could reach with 2019 just two months away. Below are several who just may end up leading their peers in passing touchdowns.

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Patrick Mahomes (KC): +360
What better way to start off this segment than with last season’s leader in touchdown passes? Mahomes set the league on fire last year, tallying 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns in his first season as Kansas City’s starter. Despite losing a great pass-catcher out of the backfield in Kareem Hunt while Tyreek Hill’s future is still murky, Mahomes continues to possess the best odds to defend his touchdown title in 2019.

In 2018, Mahomes had the most red-zone passing attempts by any quarterback with 6.5 per game. Even though losing Hunt — and possibly Hill for some time — is a huge blow, Mahomes has other solid options like Travis Kelce, Damien Williams, and Sammy Watkins. If Hill serves a suspension, his return would significantly raise Mahomes’ chances even more. The 23-year-old will look to lead the league in passing touchdowns in back-to-back seasons for the first time since Drew Brees did it in 2011 and 2012.

Andrew Luck (IND): +420
The 2018 Comeback Player of the Year was the runner-up in terms of passing touchdowns. Luck’s 39 scoring tosses were still 11 shy of Mahomes. Much like Mahomes, Luck also had a high red-zone pass attempt rate at 6.2 per game, which was the third-best average last year. The Colts are more of a pass-first team. Luck threw the rock roughly 41.4 plays per game, the fourth-most in the NFL last season. Indianapolis also has a lot of sufficient weapons for Luck to use at his disposal in T.Y. Hilton, Devin Funchess, and Marlon Mack or Nyheim Hines in the backfield.

Since 2014, Luck has not thrown fewer than 30 touchdown passes in a full season. The only two exceptions were in 2015 and 2017. In 2015, he only played seven games due to an injury. Before that season was cut short, he tossed 15 touchdowns. He missed all of 2017 after undergoing shoulder surgery. With those injuries behind him, Luck looks poised to challenge Mahomes for the top spot in passing touchdowns this season.

Matt Ryan (ATL): +420
Ryan’s big arm usually puts him in this conversation every year. It also helps to have arguably the best wideout in football (Julio Jones) along with a collection of solid receivers. The Atlanta Falcons even decided to bring back former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who ran the offense from 2012 and 2014. During that span, Ryan and the Falcons owned a top-10 passing attack

Atlanta is looking to rebound from a disappointing 2018 campaign in which it missed the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Furthermore, when the Falcons entered their opponent’s red zone, Ryan completed 45 out of 73 passing attempts (61.6%) in 2018. Ryan also connected with his receivers on an incredible 23 touchdowns against only one interception while down inside the opposition’s 20. If he can keep up that kind of production in 2019, there’s no telling what he can do.

It all starts with the Falcons getting their offense on the right track this year, which has been their primary strength since Ryan joined the team in 2008. If all goes well, Matty Ice and the gang can make some seriously loud noise in 2019.

Drew Brees (NO): +1100
Let’s continue our discussion by remaining in the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints, much to the chagrin of Falcons fans, also have a highly explosive passing attack of their own. Brees has been a dominant force within his division since coming to New Orleans in 2006. Alongside Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, he is one of three quarterbacks since 2001 to lead the league in passing touchdowns four times.

The Saints have an extremely potent offense with plenty of options for him to go to, especially in the red zone. Of the 32 active signal-callers in the NFL last year, Brees had the second-best support cast efficiency (+14.06). Only Russell Wilson had a better supporting cast last season with +19.24. It is definitely a great comfort knowing he has Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara to come up with big catches in the red zone. Even though he is older than the rest of these quarterbacks listed, Brees is capable of leading the NFL in passing touchdowns again before his career comes to a close.

Baker Mayfield (CLE): +1600
With the additions of Hunt and Odell Beckham Jr. this offseason, Baker Mayfield’s chances of compiling the most touchdown passes have increased exponentially. He already had plenty of weapons in Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson, David Njoku, and Antonio Callaway. Adding Beckham and Hunt just makes Mayfield and the entire Cleveland offense entirely more dangerous.

Furthermore, Mayfield delivered his most impressive numbers from Weeks 14-17 in 2018. During that span, he tossed nine touchdowns, tied for the second-most with Mahomes and Tom Brady. Only Ryan had more touchdown passes in that time frame. The AFC North may have a new sheriff in town if all goes according to plan this year. That is if Ben Roethlisberger is ready to give up the title so easily. It could be the renewal of an age-old rivalry that has gone dormant for quite some time between Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

Jameis Winston (TB): +2300
Another member of the NFC South has some serious potential to compete for the touchdown crown. Tampa Bay has made a lot of major adjustments to its coaching staff to help Jameis Winston become a better player. New head coach Bruce Arians will look to make good use of his new quarterback, just like he did with Carson Palmer in Arizona.

Winston definitely has the tools and talent to be an elite NFL passer, but can he actually live up to the expectations? A lot of critics have wondered about this since Winston entered the league four years ago. Arians successfully molded the veteran Palmer into a solid starter. In three full seasons with Arizona (2013, 2015 and 2016), Palmer threw 85 touchdown passes against only 47 interceptions. The combination of Winston’s talented playmaking ability and Arians’ past success with other signal-callers makes for a good case that the Buccaneers quarterback can turn some heads in 2019.

Kyler Murray (ARI): +3200
This may come as a bit of a shock since he is a rookie. But if all goes well in Arizona, there is an outside chance that Kyler Murray leads the league in touchdown passes by December. While he has not taken an NFL snap yet, Murray and new Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury have a strong rapport with one another. Their bond goes all the way back to Murray’s sophomore year at Allen High School, when Kingsbury recruited the quarterback as the offensive coordinator for Texas A&M.

Even though Murray did not follow Kingsbury to Texas Tech during his college days, the two have remained extremely close. When given the Cardinals’ head coaching job earlier this year, Kingsbury immediately began recruiting Murray leading up to the 2019 NFL Draft. The Cardinals, despite taking Josh Rosen in the first round last year, selected Murray with the number one overall pick.

Now that the two have united, there is a lot of buzz circling around Arizona. Kingsbury’s college-style, uptempo offense will most likely involve a lot of passing, especially when in the red zone. Arizona has some interesting weapons for Murray to go to such as David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and a few other new faces that could potentially be rising stars. The 2019 Heisman Trophy winner threw 42 touchdowns during his final season with Oklahoma. If the chemistry is what it is all cracked up to be, Murray could very well take the league by storm this year.

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Matthew Catalano is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @MatthewCatala16.