NFL Futures: Best Bet to Win Super Bowl LV (2020)

With the 2020 NFL season just a few weeks away, now is a great time to lock in Super Bowl futures before the public gets involved and starts moving lines.

When evaluating the Super Bowl futures market, I’m looking for the best combination of talent and value. Sure, it’s easy to say the Kansas City Chiefs are the most talented team in the NFL right now. But at 6/1 odds, I know I can find teams who aren’t far off from Kansas City that come at a better price.

So without further ado, here’s my best bet for Super Bowl 55, as well as a couple of other longer shots I’d throw a flier on.

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Super Bowl LV Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks at 20/1

The Seahawks are being completely overlooked in the NFC after losing in the Divisional Round to the Green Bay Packers last season. They currently have the sixth-best odds among NFC teams to win it all behind San Francisco, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Philadelphia. However, I’d argue that Seattle is a top 3 team in the conference.

Offensive Analysis

There aren’t many quarterback-coach combinations I’d rather lay my money on than Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson, especially in an uncertain year like this where continuity matters. And while it’s fair to worry about Seattle’s defense, there might be a new Legion of Boom forming offensively.

Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf could evolve into the league’s most explosive pass-catching duo. Lockett is coming off of his first 1,000-yard campaign and Metcalf’s combination of size and raw speed is simply unfair. If he develops a more nuanced route tree, he has the potential to torment opposing defenses in his second season.

Many people give Carroll flak for being too conservative offensively. But no modern NFL team is really “run-heavy” anymore. Seattle ranked 23rd in the NFL in pass attempts, but still averaged 32 attempts per game. And with Wilson, Metcalf, and Lockett leading the way, the Seahawks might not need a ton of pass attempts to be one of the league’s best passing units.

And while some may grumble about Seattle’s reliance on the run, I love that they can grind out games on the ground. The Seahawks ranked eighth in the league with an average of 4.6 rushing yards per attempt and gained a first down on 121 rushes, the third-most in the league. And while a healthy Chris Carson is nothing overly exciting, he’s good enough to move the chains and wear defenses down late in games.

There’s plenty to love about Seattle’s offense entering 2020, and there might not be a quarterback I’d rather have with the ball late in the game than Wilson.

Defensive Analysis

For a franchise that has prided itself on elite defenses over the last decade, Seattle’s defense really fell off last season. Here’s where the Seahawks ranked in major defensive categories in 2019:

• Tied for second-to-last in yards allowed per pay (6.0)
• 27th in first downs allowed (346)
• 27th in passing yards allowed (4,223)
• 22nd in rushing yards allowed (1,883)
• 22nd in points allowed (398)
• 29th in sacks (28)

The only good thing the Seahawks did defensively was taking the ball away, finishing third in the league with 32 takeaways.

While last season’s performance is certainly discouraging, the Seahawks made some significant additions to the defense during the offseason. The most notable was the recent acquisition of Jamal Adams, who will serve as the disruptive box safety the team has been desperately lacking ever since losing Kam Chancellor. Very few players who aren’t pass rushers or cornerbacks can impact games quite like Adams.

Seattle also bolstered its secondary by trading for cornerback Quinton Dunbar, who picked off four passes last season for Washington. Free-agent signees Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa should give the Seahawks’ pass rush a bit more bite after the Jadeveon Clowney experiment failed miserably. Neither are every-down starters, but they should be productive as situational pass rushers.

Schedule and Division Analysis

The NFC West is a challenging division. The defending NFC champions obviously reside in San Francisco. The Los Angeles Rams could improve with better offensive line play. And the Arizona Cardinals are a sexy pick to be the league’s next breakout offense. While San Francisco was the class of the division last year, I anticipate some regression on both sides of the ball. The gap between Seattle and San Fran isn’t that large.

The Seahawks face a decent schedule that ranks as tied for the 13th toughest (.509 opponents’ winning percentage). Seattle’s toughest non-divisional opponents, Dallas and Minnesota, both come to CenturyLink Field. And the team’s toughest non-divisional road games are at Buffalo and at Philadelphia, which becomes much more manageable contests if crowds aren’t allowed.

The Seahawks are being taken too lightly right now. The combination of Carroll and Wilson is almost a lock to make the playoffs, assuming health. And I’m confident the additions made on the defensive side of the ball will be enough to propel Seattle to the promised land.

Honorable Mention: Pittsburgh Steelers at 25/1

One AFC team I’d take a flier on is Pittsburgh. The Steelers have an elite defense that finished top 5 in points allowed, yards per play allowed, passing defense, takeaways and sacks. Offensively, we should probably throw away what happened last season with the disastrous quarterback play. Assuming Ben Roethlisberger is fully healthy and still himself, then I see Pittsburgh’s offense bouncing back in a big way. I’d take a normal Big Ben and this defense any day in the postseason.

Throw a Dart On It: Houston Texans at 50/1

Public sentiment is really low on the Texans after Bill O’Brien shipped DeAndre Hopkins away for David Johnson. But the division is still pretty wide open. I’m not a believer in the Titans following up on what they did last year. And Deshaun Watson is still damn good. The defense is a problem but could improve under new coordinator Anthony Weaver. It’s worth a few pennies.

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.