NFL Futures: Best Bet to Win the AFC (2020)
The Pittsburgh Steelers 2019 season seemed doomed during the second quarter of their Week 2 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. That was the moment Ben Roethlisberger suffered a right elbow injury that sidelined him for the rest of the year.
However, Pittsburgh was 8-5 and in playoff position before collapsing down the stretch to finish 8-8. While the market might have that meltdown stuck in its head, I’m using it as an opportunity to pounce on some value.
By making the Steelers my best bet to win the AFC at 12/1 odds, I’m throwing out everything I saw offensively after that point and expecting what went wrong for Pittsburgh in 2019 to get right in 2020.
I’m banking on a rejuvenated Big Ben staying healthy and throwing for at least 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. I’m taking a chance on Juju Smith-Schuster and James Conner regaining their 2018 forms after missing 10 games combined due to injuries. And I’m expecting an outstanding defense lined with stars at every level to remain elite.
Here’s a deeper dive into why I’m buying Pittsburgh as my best bet to win the AFC.
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Offense
Forget about Mason Rudolph. Pretend Devlin “Duck,†Hodges didn’t exist. If not for their struggles, the Steelers could have snuck into the playoffs.
Think about this: the Steelers had fewer than 200 passing yards in 12 of their 14 contests without Roethlisberger under center. That’s embarrassing in today’s NFL. But enough dwelling on last season’s quarterback debacle. Big Ben is back, he’s slimmed down a bit, and he’s feeling young again.
Roethlisberger’s presence alone will lighten up defensive fronts for Conner. The fourth-year back was a disappointment last season, rushing for just 464 yards and four scores. Durability was a concern, as he missed six games and was constantly hampered by knee and shoulder injuries.
Conner is a power back with a bit more speed than a traditional plodder. But the offensive line that paved the way to his 974 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2018 is mostly intact, aside from new starters Stefen Wisniewski and Matt Feiler. If he can stay healthy, there’s a chance he can recapture some of his magic from 2018. If not, look for rookie Anthony McFarland as an option to fill the void.
Perhaps the greatest wild-card on Pittsburgh’s offense is Smith-Schuster. The 23-year-old also followed up his breakout 2018 campaign with a complete dud in 2019. He missed four games while dealing with a concussion, a toe injury, and a knee injury. The quarterback play certainly didn’t help.
The jury’s out on whether Smith-Schuster is the 1,400-yard player we saw in 2018 or the 552-yard player we watched last year. I estimate he’s somewhere firmly in between and believes he has the talent to put up multiple 1,000-yard seasons as a pro.
Pittsburgh’s ancillary weapons are also exciting. Diontae Johnson is a sexy breakout pick after he caught 59 passes for 680 yards and five touchdowns as the de facto No. 1 wideout in Juju’s absence. There’s more potential on the depth chart in James Washington and Chase Claypool. And while Eric Ebron isn’t the flashiest offseason signing, he could be the red-zone target this offense desperately needs.
Defense
Pittsburgh’s defense was solely responsible for keeping the team in playoff contention last season. The Steelers finished top 5 in points allowed, yards per play allowed, passing defense, takeaways, and sacks. While San Francisco’s defense got much of the glory, I’d argue Pittsburgh has the most talented defense in the NFL.
The unit is loaded with impact players at all three levels. The front seven is led by T.J. Watt, who finished third in NFL Defensive Player of the Year voting with 14.5 sacks. Bud Dupree put together his first double-digit sack campaign. And Cameron Heyward wreaked havoc on the interior with nine sacks and 83 total tackles. Linebacker Devin Bush is also a rising star after leading the team in tackles as a rookie.
The secondary is equally as impressive and headlined by Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was acquired in a trade last season. The third-year star made an impact immediately, picking off five passes in 14 games. Veteran cornerbacks Joe Haden and Steven Nelson make up a respectable starting duo at cornerback. Strong safety Terrell Edmunds might go unnoticed, but he racked up 103 tackles in his second season.
With so many young stars, it’s fair to wonder whether Pittsburgh’s defense could improve in 2020.
Schedule Analysis
Pittsburgh has the second-easiest schedule in the NFL with a combined opponents’ win percentage of .457. But that might be a bit misleading. The AFC North is never easy, especially with Baltimore being a popular favorite to win Super Bowl LV. The Browns and Bengals could be improved too.
Pittsburgh’s most challenging non-divisional games are vs. Houston, at Tennessee, vs. Philadelphia, at Dallas, at Buffalo, and vs. Indianapolis. While it’s not a gauntlet, it isn’t as easy as the schedule rankings might assume.
Final Analysis
In my mind, Pittsburgh is the third-best team in a top-heavy AFC with a healthy Roethlisberger. Yet, the Steelers have the sixth-best odds to win the conference. They have the same odds as Buffalo and worse odds than a Tom Brady-less New England and Indianapolis.
The Steelers have a challenging path toward winning the division and might have to go through both Baltimore and Kansas City in the playoffs, depending on their seeding. But Pittsburgh should be a safe bet to make the playoffs, especially when factoring in the extra wild-card spot. Come playoff time, I’ll happily roll the dice on Big Ben and an elite defense to make it to Tampa.
At 12/1, you won’t find a better value on a team as talented as Pittsburgh.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.