NFL Futures: Best Bet to Win the AFC (2020)
When recommending an NFL team futures Best Bet, I whittle down my choice using three main factors:
- Balance: Does this team have offensive and defensive balance?
- Improvement: Were there off-season personnel/coaching moves that can justify greater success this season?
- Odds: In the range of outcomes, is the likelihood of success better than the odds offered?
Following that process, here is my Best Bet to Win the AFC in 2020.
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Best Bet to Win AFC
Using the consensus odds from BettingPros, I identified seven teams with an AFC Championship within their range of outcomes.
- Kansas City +300
- Baltimore +325
- New England +825
- Indianapolis +1200
- Pittsburgh +1200
- Buffalo +1350
- Tennessee +1650
Balance
On offense, the only team on this list that ranked in the bottom third in offensive efficiency per FootballOutsiders was Pittsburgh (32nd). That easily gets improved with the return of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger from offseason elbow surgery. In 2018, he led the NFL in attempts (675), completions (475), and passing yards (5129). The Steelers finished sixth overall that season in offensive efficiency, illustrating how critical Roethlisberger is to Pittsburgh’s success.
The Steelers offense was a disaster in 2019, ranking 32nd in passing offensive efficiency and 31st in rushing efficiency. There are also concerns at running back with James Conner having a 62.5% (1st overall) injury probability per PlayerProfiler.
The Pittsburgh defense is loaded with multiple stars in linebackers TJ Watt and Devin Bush, as well as safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Their defense ranked third overall, trailing just New England and San Francisco in DVOA. However, they happen to reside in a division where their archrival Baltimore annually features a top defense as well. The fragility of their offensive stars and difficult divisional competition persuaded me to eliminate the Steelers.
Eliminated: Pittsburgh
Offseason Improvement
The rich get richer with last year’s Super Bowl Champion selecting versatile LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round of the NFL Draft. Indianapolis improved their quarterback position with veteran Philip Rivers joining the Colts on a one-year $25 million contract. The 38-year old veteran hopes for one last shot at an elusive trip to the Super Bowl. Buffalo added explosive wide receiver Stefon Diggs, along with defensive end A.J. Epenesa and running back Zack Moss through the draft.
Several of these teams suffered huge offseason losses. The Patriots lost quarterback Tom Brady to Tampa Bay. The Ravens lost long-time guard Marshal Yanda (retirement) and defensive tackle Michael Pierce (free agent). Tennessee lost a critical part of the offensive line when tackle Jack Conklin signed with Cleveland.
While the Patriots recently signed quarterback Cam Newton, the loss of Brady combined with one of their most difficult schedules in recent memory makes it hard to justify backing New England at the third-lowest odds of any AFC team. Tennessee made an impressive run to the AFC Championship Game last season, but the loss of Conklin will greatly impact a running attack that must operate on high efficiency to avoid more pressure on journeyman signal-caller Ryan Tannehill. The Titans have finished 9-7 in three consecutive seasons, failing to even win their own division during that time.
The “magic carpet ride†of the Titans is unlikely to be repeated and the odds are not high enough to back a revamped New England team.
Eliminated: New England, Tennessee
Odds
Kansas City and Baltimore are the favorites but I look for better odds for a team Best Bet. With just a 16-game NFL season and the high weekly injury risks, I want more of a return to select one of the favorites. The Chiefs’ struggles to stop the run (29th in rushing defense DVOA) were exposed by both Tennessee and San Francisco during the playoffs.
The explosiveness of reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson combined with superior coaching make the Ravens a tempting choice. However, their strong division competition against Pittsburgh and Cleveland provides too much resistance at +325.
This leaves two possible choices: Indianapolis at +1200 and Buffalo at +1400.
The Colts have one of the league’s best offensive lines and are projected by SharpFootballAnalysis to have the easiest schedule of any NFL team. They added a mega-college producer with running back Jonathan Taylor, and now have a motivated veteran quarterback in Rivers. My concern is an Indianapolis defense that has ranked 20th and 19th against the pass in each of the past two seasons. While Rivers is certainly an upgrade over Jacoby Brissett as a signal-caller, he will be 39-years old when the Colts will likely need to win a potential AFC Title road game.
Buffalo has ranked as a Top 5 pass defense in each of the past two seasons under head coach Sean McDermott. The Bills have made the playoffs in two of his three seasons, which followed a 17-year playoff drought. Very few teams possess the home-field advantage Buffalo has late in the season. With New England likely to take a step backward, the Bills have the easiest slate of divisional opponents of any team on this list. Their defensive strength of schedule rated five stars per FantasyPros. A robust 12-4 season could earn Buffalo a home playoff game, with a battle with Kansas City looming as their only obstacle to cash their high odds.
If the 2020 season was played 13 times, I certainly see Buffalo representing the AFC at least once in the Super Bowl. They ranked second in the league in fewest points allowed, ahead of both Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The addition of Diggs should complement quarterback Josh Allen’s strong arm, and open up opportunities for a pair of young running backs in Moss and Devin Singletary.
Josh Allen showed improvement last season, finishing as a Top 10 quarterback in fantasy points per game. His rushing upside makes Buffalo’s offense unpredictable. Allen finished with 510 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. The acquisition of Diggs complements a strong receiving core with fellow deep threat John Brown and slot man Cole Beasley.
The superior coaching, defense, personnel improvements, and weak AFC East competition make Buffalo at +1300 my best bet to win the AFC title in 2020.
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills win the AFC (+1600) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Mike Randle is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @randlerant.