NFL Futures: Best Bets for 2020 NFL MVP

As the 2020 NFL Combine begins, the 2020 NFL MVP futures have been posted. We’ve still got a long way to go through the offseason with free agency, the NFL Draft, and then training camps, but it’s never too early to examine the futures.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is the current favorite, but is he the best bet? DraftKings Sportsbook has odds on a wide array of players, so let’s take a look and see where there’s value.

Check out our consensus and the odds at each sportsbook for 2020 NFL MVP >>

Betting Favorites

Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City Chiefs
NFL MVP Odds: +400
Mahomes enters the 2020 campaign as the favorite to win the MVP, and it’s not a big surprise to see that. He led the Chiefs to a Super Bowl, played like an MVP in the playoffs, and was the league’s MVP in 2018. What’s interesting to note, though, is his 2019 regular season numbers were way off the mark as he had 50 touchdown passes in 2018. Although he was injured for a couple of games in 2019, he was only at 26.

Even so, with so much consistency on offense, coordinator Eric Bienemy coming back and many of the same parts, it’s hard to see Mahomes not being in the MVP conversation. He’s a safe bet.

Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens
NFL MVP Odds: +600
Jackson, who won the MVP award this year, comes in third in terms of the odds. He’s fresh off a campaign where he totaled 43 touchdowns and set a new NFL record for rushing yards in a season by a quarterback with 1,206. The question with Jackson will be if the league has got a book out on him. Many people thought that would be the case last year, but he took another step forward and improved significantly as a passer. He completed 66.1 percent of his passes with a healthy 7.8 yards per attempt. What’s more is that his cast around him isn’t as good as it could be. While the offensive line and running game are excellent, he didn’t really have a steady No. 1 receiver to work with. Tight end Mark Andrews emerged as a Pro Bowl player, but maybe Jackson improves further if this team signs someone like Amari Cooper or A.J. Green.

Jackson, like Mahomes, is arguably the safest bet this early in the season.

Value Play

Tom Brady: New England Patriots
NFL MVP Odds: +3300
This early in the offseason, I’m often looking to take a flier. Guys like Mahomes and Jackson will have short odds through to the regular season, so if you want to bet on them, there’s no need to rush. Right now, I’m looking for someone who might be overlooked or someone who could offer some value.

Brady is in an interesting spot because I see two possible destinations for him. On the one hand, he might sign with the Las Vegas Raiders. In my mind, that only happens if they can get two things done: one, offer him a boatload of money (which they’ve done) and two, bring some star power to help on offense. The Raiders already have a strong offensive line, a good running game, and a Pro Bowl tight end, but if they come to Brady and say, “we’ll sign both you and A.J. Green,” that makes Las Vegas quite attractive.

On the other hand, I’m actually expecting Brady to come back. I don’t think he’s going anywhere, and this is mostly being done for leverage. In that case, he’ll push the Patriots to acquire some help for him. They need receivers, so if they get Green and maybe Hunter Henry and draft a wideout or two, that will make him happy.

At any rate, Brady should be in a good spot to step into a much better offense next season. In New England, they’ll probably again push for 12 wins because they did so last year with a bad offense. With better weapons, maybe Brady has better numbers and gets in the MVP conversation. In Las Vegas, it might only take a 10-win season for Brady to get into the MVP conversation as he’d be viewed as the main catalyst for change. They’re not that far off from that.

33/1 are good odds on Brady because I don’t think he’s finished yet, and I also think he’ll be in an offense with far more weapons next season.

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.