NFL Futures: Best Bets for AP Defensive Player of the Year (2020)

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As the end of spring comes into sight on the NFL calendar with the draft and free agency (mostly) behind us, all eyes toward turn, hopefully, OTAs and training camps. While both are just as uncertain as to the start of the actual season, bookmakers have made odds available as if there are zero reasons to think we won’t have a regularly scheduled 2020 NFL season.

In addition to statistics-related and team-related prop bets, our friends over at FanDuel are also offering props related to the Associated Press awards given out at the end of each season. On the defensive side of the ball, Stephen Gilmore (+1600), will look to win the award for the second consecutive season.

Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (+750) will likely have something to say about that as he looks to become the second player to win the title three times in four seasons.  The only player to accomplish that feat, JJ Watt (+1800), will be looking to rebound strongly from an injury-ridden 2019 season.

While all three of these players are in the top five of odds posted at FanDuel, I have my eye on a fourth who I see as currently offering the most value on the board.

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Prior to last season, you have to go all the way back to 2009 (Charles Woodson) to find the last time a cornerback won this award, showing clear bias by this committee to award it to players who disrupt the backfield. Last season’s runner ups, Chandler Jones and TJ Watt, were both edge rushers who got to the quarterback (and running backs) early and often.

Taking a closer look at this year’s most likely candidates, TJ Watt once again finds himself near the top at +1500, while Jones is more of a long shot at +2900 with the Cardinals doing little this offseason to boost his chances.

Looking back to last season, arguably no player improved more as the season went on than Chargers edge rusher Joey Bosa. After starting the season uncharacteristically slow, Bosa finished fourth in the league in tackles for loss (20) and number one among defensive ends.

Additionally his, 11.5 sacks ranked him tied-9th in the league, which given the Chargers constant playing from behind, can be skewed higher as they were more prone to run-first defensive sets.

Adding to a strong end to the 2019 season for the Charger’s defense as a whole, they added one of the best linebackers in April’s draft in Kenneth Murray out of Oklahoma. Arguably the most pro-ready prospect in the class, I expect Murray to make an impact in year one, only opening up the chances for Bosa to get into the backfield to cause mayhem.

The Chargers also brought in a new defensive coordinator to lead the unit this offseason in Gus Bradley. Most recently the head coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Bradley was the architect of the Seahawks defense from 2009-2012 where he helped turn around defensive end Chris Clemon’s career in a secondary-heavy defense.

With a new regime at the helm on defense and the added boost in the linebacker core, I like Bosa to reach his full potential in 2020, which should be a scary proposition for AFC West quarterbacks.

Pick: Joey Bosa +1300