NFL Futures: Best Bets for AP Offensive Player of the Year (2020)

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As uncertainty dominates the 2020 NFL calendar, sportsbooks across the world are still offering odds on everything under the sun as if nothing has changed. One such group of prop bets, futures on the Associated Press’ annual awards, has garnered a fair amount of attention in recent weeks with free agency beginning to close out and teams finishing up their rosters before the fall.

Though there is no exact science to the criteria, each season, the AP hands out the Offensive Player of the Year award to the player with the most outstanding record on that side of the ball. Prior to last season’s winner, Michael Thomas, you have to go all the way back to the 1993 season (Jerry Rice) to find the last time a wide receiver won the award.

That said, to the surprise of few, three of the top four favorites this season are quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes (+650), Lamar Jackson (+950), and Russell Wilson (+1600). Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey (+1300) and Thomas (+1800) round out the top five 2020-2021 favorites, according to FanDuel.

With an almost surely shortened offseason, I give running backs a more built-in advantage than usual, as it’s less about team meetings and more about staying in shape and healthy. I have my eye on one such long-shot back who has some value in 2020.

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Derrick Henry (+2100)

Prior to 2018, Tennesee Titan’s running back Derrick Henry was largely seen as a bust in the league since going to the Titans in the second round of the 2016 draft. That narrative has decidedly changed.

The 2018 season saw a definitive increase in production for Henry, as he eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. He also rushed for double-digit (12) touchdowns for the first time, putting him third in the league in that category. His 4.9 yards per rush was also a career-high at the time.

If not for Thomas’s stellar 2019 campaign and Lamar Jackson’s explosion onto the scene, all of the 2019 offensive accolades would’ve gone to Henry. In 15 games of regular-season play, Henry rushed for a league-high 1,540 yards while tying for a league-high in touchdowns with 16. His nine rushes of 20+ yards also put him in the top three in that category, showing his scary big-play ability despite his monster 6’3″ 247-pound frame.

With another year under the belt for Titan’s quarterback Ryan Tannehill, I expect the Titans offense to be even more efficient than last season. The emergence of A.J. Brown as a clear WR1 should continue to open up the run game for a team that looks poised to go on another postseason run in 2020.

Whether it be for Tannehill, Henry, or a mixture of both, the Titans brass added some much-needed protection for their most valuable assets. With the 29th pick of April’s draft, the team picked up Isaiah Wilson, a 6’7″ 340-pound stud offensive lineman out of the University of Georgia. The type of player who can contribute day one, I expect Henry to benefit greatly from this addition to an already sound offensive line.

Best Bets for AP Offensive Player of the Year: Derrick Henry (+2100)