NFL Futures: Best Bets to Lead NFL in Passing TDs (2019)
In what was his sophomore season in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes officially arrived on the scene in 2018 putting up a league-high 50 TDs. Etching his name in the history books next to the likes of Brady and Manning, Mahomes took his Chiefs team all the way to the AFC Championship game before losing to the former of those two legends.
Coming in second in the passing TD race was NFL Comeback Player Of The Year Andrew Luck who tossed 39 TDS while averaging 4o passes per game. With these two now deservedly slated as No. 1 and No. 2 in the 2019 odds, let’s take a look at the rest of the field to try and find an edge for this season.
| Player | BettingPros Consensus Odds |
| PATRICK MAHOMES | +350 |
| ANDREW LUCK | +450 |
| MATT RYAN | +500 |
| AARON RODGERS | +750 |
| DREW BREES | +1300 |
| RUSSELL WILSON | +1300 |
| BAKER MAYFIELD | +1500 |
| PHILIP RIVERS | +1500 |
| BEN ROETHLISBERGER | +1500 |
| CARSON WENTZ | +1500 |
| TOM BRADY | +2000 |
| DESHAUN WATSON | +2300 |
Check out all the odds to lead the NFL in passing TDs
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Best Bet?
The last two seasons have been odd ones for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, missing the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since 2005 and 2006. Rodgers, who is the NFL record-holder in both single-season (122.5) and career (103.8) passer rating, in addition to an improved NFC North, battled injuries and a bizarre relationship with his then-head coach Mike McCarthy. He comes into 2019 finally fully healthy with all indications pointing towards a renewed focus heading into what has the potential to be a monster season.
The Packers also bring in new head coach Matt LaFleur who has spent time working for some of the best young offensive minds in the game in recent years in Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. In 2016, LaFleur guided Matt Ryan on his way to the NFL MVP and Super Bowl LI appearance against the New England Patriots. Unlike last season for LaFleur, when he struggled to produce with a young and inexperienced offense in Tennesee, he now inherits an All-Pro in Rodgers looking to make a statement in the post-McCarthy era.
Over his last eight seasons, Rodgers has thrown for more than 35 touchdowns in four of them and has had no more than eight INTs in any year. Outside of Mahomes’ video-game-like numbers last season, that put Rodgers firmly at or near the top of each of the four season’s TD passing titles. The Packers’ schedule also bodes well for quarterback numbers this season with only three games beyond November 1st potentially played in cold weather.
His two most notable targets in Davante Adams and TE Jimmy Graham are complemented by two youngsters with a ton of upside in Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Allison started off 2018 strong, recording 289 yards and two TDs over the first four games before a season-ending injury, catching only one more pass for the rest of the season. If Allison can stay healthy and fill in the slot as he’s done so far this preseason, he’s just another critical weapon for Rodgers to put up huge TD numbers all season.
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.