NFL Futures: Best Bets to Win AFC Championship (2021)

The AFC features multiple teams that made offseason moves that can push them to be championship contenders. In the AFC South, the Tennessee Titans paired Derrick Henry with Julio Jones to go all-in. Indianapolis reunited Carson Wentz and Frank Reich. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a long way to go, but they added three winners with Trevor Lawerence, Travis Etienne Jr., and Urban Meyer. 

As for the AFC East, Bill Belichick will find out if Mac Jones is the answer for the Patriots. The Buffalo Bills used their draft picks to bolster their edge rush while grabbing some offensive lineman to protect Josh Allen. They also added Emmanuel Sanders to help Stefon Diggs. The Miami Dolphins reunited Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle while filling some gaps to help their pass rush and beefing up the offensive line during this off-season. 

And in the AFC North, the Pittsburgh Steelers beefed up their running game this offseason by adding Najee Harris — but they have only one offensive lineman returning from last year, Chuks Okorafor. The Cleveland Browns have Odell Beckham Jr. back along with signing Jadeveon Clowney. Lamar Jackson got some wide-receiver upgrades with Sammy Watkins and Rashad Bateman.

In the AFC West, Rumors have been going around all offseason about Aaron Rodgers heading to Denver. That said, it looks like they’ll be turning to Teddy Bridgewater instead. They will have to try and dethrone Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West. The Los Angeles Chargers ended last year on a four-game winning streak, but can Justin Herbert continue the streak?

(Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

Check out consensus odds for the AFC Championship here >>

The Contenders

Tennessee Titans (+1500)

The Tennessee Titans went all-in this year by trading for Julio Jones. They also beefed up their secondary by signing cornerback Janoris Jenkins and drafting cornerbacks Caleb Farley (first round) and Elijah Molden (third round).

They addressed one of their weaknesses from last year, too. They struggled to rush opposing passers, so they added edge rusher Bud Dupree in free agency and drafted Rashad Weaver. They are looking better already going into this season. 

This team made the AFC Championship just two years ago, where they lost 35-24 to the Kansas City Chiefs, a team they had beaten earlier that year. However, Marcus Mariota started under center for half of that season. Last year was Ryan Tannehill’s first full year as Tennessee’s quarterback. The Titans struggled at receiver last year, with only Pro Bowler  WR A.J. Brown surpassing 1,000 receiving yards. Corey Davis came close to quadruple digits with 984 receiving yards, but no other receiver or running back had more than 400 receiving yards.

Meanwhile, new addition Julio Jones had 771 receiving yards last year, but before that, he finished with 1,300-plus receiving yards in six straight seasons. Adding Jones next to A.J. Brown balances out the offense. They also have the league’s current back-to-back rushing leader in Derrick Henry.

Buffalo Bills (+500)

The Buffalo Bills have made huge strides in the last two years. Josh Allen and coach Sean McDermott have been huge contributors to that progression. The addition of Stefon Diggs last year gave Buffalo a whole new dimension on offense, too.

This year, the Bills have a new weapon in Emmanuel Sanders. Despite their lack of an effective ground game, Josh Allen can use his legs to extend plays while his arm can sling the ball deep downfield. Buffalo also drafted some offensive lineman that can help establish the run while protecting Josh Allen. Their offense should operate on all cylinders this year. 

Buffalo’s defense has always been strong, and that won’t be any different this year. They have a strong secondary and great linebackers. That said, they struggled to rush the passer last season. The Bills couldn’t effectively pressure opposing quarterbacks. However, they addressed this need in the draft, and second-year edge rusher AJ Epenesa should continue to develop. The pass rush will remain one of Buffalo’s weaker points, but they will be better than they were last year. That gives them a strong chance to win the AFC this year. 

The Winner

Kansas City Chiefs (+250)

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are hard to bet against. Since Mahomes took over the starting job, the Chiefs have gone 44-12. They have somehow improved statistically every year. Offensively, they are almost impossible to stop. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are all household names, and they will continue to produce in Andy Reid’s system. These names were big enough. Yet the Chiefs also beefed up the offensive line by adding Orlando Brown Jr, Creed Humphrey, and Joe Thuney. There aren’t many defenses in the league that can go toe to toe with this offense. They can score points at will. 

The defense should improve, too, especially in the trenches. Chris Jones and Frank Clark will cause problems for opposing offensive lines. Derrick Nnadi could also prove to be a young, effective, and reliable interior lineman this year. Linebacker Anthony Hitchens will also help the defense grind their opponents’ rushing game to a halt. Throw in Tyrann Mathieu, who has improved year after year, and this defense will cause problems for opposing offenses. They won’t shut anyone out, but they will disrupt the backfield and get some turnovers. 

The Chiefs have the best chance to win the AFC. They need to protect Patrick Mahomes, and that’s what their offseason moves will accomplish. Addressing all their needs has been a priority this year, and it will show late into the season. This team is only getting better every season, and we may see the best Chiefs team yet in 2021. 

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Cameron Lynch is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Cameron, check out his archive and follow him @captron26.