NFL Futures: Best Bets to Win Conferences (2020)
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With the 2019-2020 season officially behind us, the NFL calendar moves forward to free agency and the 2020 NFL Draft in April, as future markets begin to take shape for what lies ahead. While the likely suspects are at the top of each conference with the Chiefs (+300) and Ravens (+420) leading the way in the AFC and the 49ers (+480) and Saints (+600)at the top of the odds in the NFC, I believe there to be some value elsewhere in each conference. With so much unknown between now and the start of the season in September, let’s take a look at where some potential value currently lies in both conferences.
Favorite value bet to win the AFC in 2020
Houston Texans +1500
While playing Monday morning quarterback is one of the easiest things to do in sports commentary, make no mistake about it, the Texans had the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs down for the count in the divisional round just a few weeks ago. This offseason, Texans head coach Bill O’Brien will add general manager to his title which puts him in a Belichick-like position of taking full ownership of the entire Texans’ roster from top to bottom. This could end terribly, but I think the upside is worth the risk, as Houston has a generational talent in quarterback Deshaun Watson who they will likely do everything in their power to make a Texan for life after another stellar season. Though they certainly struggled down the stretch, most notably in the (second half) divisional loss to the Chiefs, this Houston defense, when healthy, has some of the best talent in the league and can certainly be dangerous again come the postseason.
Favorite value bet to win the NFC in 2020
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1800
Admittedly, this pick relies almost entirely on Philip Rivers signing with the team in free agency, but all signs point toward that being more likely than not. For the first time in his career, which is incredible given that he’s 38, Rivers is officially available in free agency and has already taken the step of moving his entire family, which includes his wife and nine kids, to Florida to be closer to relatives and establish a home. Simultaneously, Rivers has very much indicated that he plans to continue to play football for the foreseeable future, and with the current quarterback landscape in Miami and Jacksonville, really only the Buccaneers make sense. Bucs head coach Bruce Arians has all but flat-out voiced his displeasure with current quarterback Jameis Winston, who despite throwing for 30 touchdowns this season, also threw 30 interceptions, the most by any quarterback since 1988. The addition of Rivers to an already formidable offense cuts these odds in half overnight, and while the defense certainly needs some work, a Wild Card spot is completely attainable with Rivers and Arians at the helm.
Wait, what?
The Cleveland Browns +1400 to win the AFC should likely be closer to +3000. Certainly not the sixth-most likely in the conference. Where’s the improvement coming from that they are slated as a playoff team?
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.