NFL Futures: Best Tom Brady Prop Bets (2020)

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The 2020 NFL offseason will be remembered for decades to come. From a virtual draft to the uncertainty (of the planet) heading into the summer, the possibility of not having a 2020-2021 NFL season is certainly a real one.

Amidst all the shuffle, two of the biggest names in the league now call Tampa home as Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski signed with the Buccaneers in the weeks leading up to this weekend’s draft. While the verdict for what that means when paired with an offensive coach in Bruce Arians is still out, bookmakers have already drawn their lines in the sand.

While these props are available for most quarterbacks that will be sure-fire starters come the start of the season, there’s an added level of interest around those involving Brady and company. With the Buc’s adding some protection for the quarterback in first-round pick Tristan Wirfs, the win-now mode is completely engaged.

Let’s take a look at some Brady-related odds listed over at FanDuel.

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Regular Season Total Passing Yards Over/Under 4,224.5

Despite regularly playing from ahead and being in an offense that preferred to pound the ball, Brady still eclipsed 4,000 yards this season through the air for the eighth time in nine seasons. The two seasons prior, Brady threw for 4,577 and 4,355 yards following what was an injury shorted 2016.

With little running game to speak of, unlike the back-by-committee approach New England is known for, Brady will be asked to sling the ball more than he has in recent years. All of this on top of the fact that if Jameis Winston can eclipse 5,000 yards with this receiving core, Brady should be just fine in at a minimum coming close to that number if he can remain healthy.

While Brady and Gronk are certainly an upgrade, I still expect the Bucs to be playing from behind in their fair share of games, adding to the idea that this number could sail over as Brady scrambles to make up ground each game. Added in the fact I’m getting back a fully healthy Mike Evans and a rested Gronk being slotted into the lineup, and I’ll take the over.

Pick: OVER (-112)

Regular Season Total Passing Touchdowns 29.5

Looking back over his last five seasons in New England, Brady threw for 36, 28, 32, 29, and 24 touchdowns, seemingly putting this number right down the middle of the fairway. In none of those five years, however, has Brady had the type of weapons at his disposal as he will this season in Tampa Bay.

In former Buccaneers quarterback’s Jameis Winston only season working under head coach Bruce Arians schemes, Winston had career highs in yards(5,109), touchdowns (33), and average pass (8.2). Having studied Arians for years himself (and vice versa), I fully expect Brady to come in and produce right away, potentially eclipsing this number by week 13 or 14.

Pick: OVER (-112)

Receiver for First Touchdown Pass 2020-21

There’s admittedly some fun baked in here, but what be more of a hook line and sinker for Buc’s fans than a Brady-Gronk red zone touchdown pass to start this season in game one? With the most built-in familiarity in what will almost certainly be a shortened offseason, I like the more than 3 to 1 odds Gronk currently presents.

Pick: Rob Gronkowski (+340)