NFL Futures: Best Bet to Win Super Bowl LIV (2020)
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The end of the 2019-20 NFL season is now just weeks away as only four teams remain to compete for the most coveted trophy in American sports. After an exciting week of divisional-round football which saw one of the biggest upsets in recent postseason history, Super Bowl LIV will be set by late Sunday evening as fans across the country will scramble to get their early big game bets in. While the favorites are obvious with the Chiefs (+130) and 49ers (+155) leading the way, the Packers (+700) and Titans (+750) should certainly have something to say about that. With just one day of football remaining before two teams hit the field in Miami on February 2nd, let’s take a look at what I believe to be the best value bet still remaining.
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Favorite value bet to win Super Bowl LIV
If there’s a team in the NFL riding an LSU-confidence type wave, it’s these Tennessee Titans. Since finishing the regular season losing two of their final three games, needing a Week 17 win to even secure a place in the playoffs, the Titans have played the most confident brand of football in these NFL playoffs. Just one week removed from knocking off the dynasty that is the Brady-Belichick machine, the Titans went into Baltimore and punched the Ravens in the mouth before they even knew what hit them. After taking a 14-6 lead into the half, the Titans quickly put up two more touchdowns in the third and never looked back, allowing just one meaningless late touchdown.
The story of not only these Titans but maybe the entire NFL playoffs has been the dominance of running back Derrick Henry who has been a man among boys. Through two games, both on the road against previously thought superior defensive units, Henry has rushed for 377 yards while accounting for 5.9 yards per carry. Going into the second half on Saturday night in Baltimore, the Ravens made it a one-score game just before the first half expired, and the game still very much looked in reach. It was the Titans’ first drive of the second half, however, facing a 3rd-and-1 in their own territory, when Henry broke off a 66-yard run and two plays later threw the ball to Corey Davis on a brilliantly executed trick play. While the tide was certainly shifting in their direction in the first half, this drive really set the tone until the final whistle.
Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been far from excellent, throwing for an average of just 80 yards per game in the playoffs thus far, but he’s limited big mistakes and has given his team a chance to win on both occasions. With the best running back remaining in these playoffs paired with an adequate quarterback under center, the defense is the icing on the cake for me that makes the Titans a strong value play at over 7-to-1 odds. Through two games, the Titans’ defense has given up just two total touchdowns while intercepting the ball three times, one for a touchdown. Facing Lamar Jackson last week, who has a similar mobile style to this week’s opponent in Patrick Mahomes, the Titans were able to get to him four times and force the future NFL MVP to a QBR of just 31.8. I like the Titans to win Sunday straight up and finish the job two weeks from now in Miami.
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.