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Top NFL Futures Bets: NFC Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

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sing Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we’ve assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick ’em.

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Top NFL Futures Bets: NFC Odds, Picks & Predictions

NFC West

Team Expected Points For Expected Points Allowed Pythagorean Win Total Vegas Win Total
Los Angeles Rams 448 392 9.8 10.5
San Francisco 49ers 415 362 9.9 10.0
Arizona Cardinals 418.75 418.25 8.5 8.5
Seattle Seahawks 341.5 415.5 6.6 5.5

 

Los Angeles Rams

  • The reigning Super Bowl champs are likely still a top 5 team in the league. Their Pythagorean Win total puts them just outside the top 5, sitting behind the Bills, Buccaneers, Packers, Chiefs, and the 49ers. More on the 9ers in a second.
  • Los Angeles is still expected to be elite at scoring points. The team put up 460 points in 2021 and is now projected to score 448, which is top 5. As long as the Matthew Stafford/Cooper Kupp connection is alive and well in 2022, there’s no reason this unit can’t score among the top 5 in the league.
  • Projections have the Rams being average on defense in 2022, much like they were in 2021. The team allowed the 18th most points and is now expected to allow the 15th most.

Bet: I think it’s likely this team still wins the division, and I’d be inclined to take it at +125 if I didn’t think there was better value on the 49ers. Given that the Rams have the 2nd hardest strength of schedule and a Pythagorean win total just under their total win line, I’ll stay away from betting anything other than the Rams to win the division, but there’s very little value.

San Francisco 49ers

  • Right now, the 49ers are favored in 13 games, which doesn’t include the two pick ’ems against Kansas City and Tampa Bay at home in San Francisco. This is two more wins than the Rams, despite the 49ers being projected to score 30 fewer points. The 49ers’ Pythagorean win total is 9.86, which is not only the best in the entire NFC West but also the top 5 across the league.
  • It seems odd, given that Trey Lance hasn’t yet had a real opportunity to start.
  • Defensively, this unit is poised to be the best in football. The 49ers are projected to allow the fewest points in the league, 362, after allowing 365 last season, the 9th fewest.

Bet: Given the high expectations from Vegas in the form of being favorites and allowing such few points, I think there is good value on San Francisco to win the division at +200. If (like me) you think the Rams will win the division and don’t want to take the risk, the 49ers to win more than 9.5 games feels great too.

Arizona Cardinals

  • The Cardinals are one of two teams projected to score more than 400 points while still being favored in 8 or fewer games (the other is the Bengals). On paper, The Cardinals’ finish with o8.5 wins at plus money feels like a bargain. Murray looked like a legitimate MVP contender with the Cardinals starting last season 7-0.
  • Unfortunately, football is not played on paper. The Cardinals are playing four games against the AFC West, twice against the Rams, and a week 16 game against Tampa Bay.

Bet: 8.5 games is an entirely reasonable line and one that the Pythagorean Expectation leans over on. Given that it’s at plus odds, it feels like good value.

Seattle Seahawks

  • The Seahawks are expected to be a bottom-of-the-barrel team in 2021 and an absolute rebuild mode. Despite scoring 395 points last season (the 16th most, a very average number), Seattle is expected to score 341 points in 2022. This may not seem like a big difference, but the difference of -53.5 points is the 4th largest difference of any NFL team.
  • The team is expected to take a large step back on defense – allowing another 49.5 points. This difference is the 5th largest.

Bet: Despite a Pythagorean win total of 6.5 points, I don’t think there is a chance Seattle wins even seven games. I’ll take under six wins where available.

NFC East

Team Expected Points For Expected Points Allowed Pythagorean Win Total Vegas Win Total
Dallas Cowboys 437 391.5 9.6 10.5
Philadelphia Eagles 407.75 377.25 9.3 9.5
Washington Commanders 371.25 388.75 8.0 7.5
New York Giants 355.5 400.5 7.3 7.5

 

Dallas Cowboys

  • The highest-scoring team from 2021 comes into 2022 with high expectations. On paper, a top n PFF graded offensive line with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Zeke Elliot should be poised for another top 5 offensive season. 
  • Vegas expects this team to take a small step back, likely from the loss of Amari Cooper. Dallas is expected to finish with 437 points; this number is top 7 across the league and 4th highest in the NFC. 
  • The Cowboys’ defensive unit was a top 10 in 2021, allowing 358 points, the 7th fewest.  The loss of Randy Gregory is expected to have a significant impact, given that the Cowboys are projected to be a very average defense, allowing 391.5 points, the 17th most. 

Bet: Dallas’ Pythagorean win expectation is set at just around 9.5, a full win lower than 10.5. I, too, have high expectations for this team, but given their abysmal offseason, I’ll lean under this total.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Jalen Hurts was one of the most exciting quarterbacks to watch in 2021. The Eagles impressed on offense, scoring 444 points. Many expect Jalen Hurts to take a massive leap forward in his third year, yet Vegas projects this team to score just 407.75 points, 36 points fewer. This is on top of the addition of all-star AJ Brown.
  • This unit is expected to remain average on defense, allowing eight fewer points than last season. 
  • Fortunately, the Eagles have the 2nd easiest strength of schedule. Though it’s a bit concerning that the team is expected to score fewer points, hopefully, it’s indicative of less explosive 4th quarters; the Eagles scored 8.6 points per game in the 4th quarter in 2022, the 6th most.
  • The team’s Pythagorean win total of 9.3 has me feeling like their win total of 9.5 is accurately priced.

Bet: Given their easy schedule and my lack of faith in Dallas, +185 for Philly to win the division has exceptional value.

New York Giants

  • My only hope for New York this season is that this team stays healthy. I want to see if Saquon is as talented and NFL-ready as he was promised to be back in 2017. Season after season since 2012, the Giants have disappointed. This team has averaged 6.1 wins despite a single winning season.
  • Fortunately, there are some high hopes for the Giants this season they’re expected to score an astounding 97.5 points more this season. Only the Jaguars are expected to see a larger improvement vs. last season.
  • Still, New York’s win total line and Pythagorean line are both sitting around 7.5, which doesn’t offer much value.

Bet: Given the Giants are favored in just five games, I think under 7.5 wins is the smart play. 

 Washington Commanders

  • The Commanders; potential outcome in 2022 depend entirely on Carson Wentz. If Wentz ever returns to his 2017 form, he could truly be an elite quarterback in the NFL. We’ve seen that it’s not likely to happen, and Vegas projections would agree. The Commanders are expected to score 50 fewer points this season, despite an” “upgrade” from Taylor Heinicke to Carson Wentz. They haven’t seen too many other changes to their offense.
  • Washington allowed the 8th most points in 2021. With a healthy Chase Young, this unit is projected to be a top half unit, allowing nearly 50 points less in 2022. 
  • The Pythagorean win total for Washington sits at 8 – a solid half win more than their line of 7.5.

Bet: If you’re a believer in Carson Wentz, this is an easy pick on the over. If you’re not –it’s one of the easiest bets to avoid.

NFC South

Team Expected Points For Expected Points Allowed Pythagorean Win Total Vegas Win Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 463.25 376.75 10.5 11.5
New Orleans Saints 372.5 377.5 8.4 8.5
Carolina Panthers 346 402.5 7.0 6.5
Atlanta Falcons 340.75 438.25 6.0 5.0

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Tampa Tom is returning for one more, and Vegas expects this unit to score the most points of any NFL team (463.25) after scoring the second-most (511) in 2021. There is no doubt that this is a conservative number given that the team is favored in all but one game: a week 14 pick ’em’ against San Francisco.
  • On defense, this team is expected to resemble the same unit that allowed the 5th fewest points in 2021. The team is expected to allow 376.75 points, 23 more than their 2021 total, and the 7th fewest.

Bet: At the end of the day, there’s no betting against Tom Brady. Give me all the overs, championships, and maybe even a Super Bowl. Tom Brady is just that dude.

New Orleans Saints

  • Before losing Jameis Winston in week 8 of 2021, the Saints averaged 23.3 points per game. The remainder of the season was bleak with the Saints going 4-6, but fans have reason to be optimistic about 2022 with Michael Thomas returning and the addition of Ohio State stand-out Chris Olave.
  • That is until you consider Vegas projects this unit to score 20.4 points per game and just 8.5 more total (372.5) than they scored last season (364). Not much is expected to change on defense, and the Pythagorean win total sits right at their 8.5 vegas line.
  • Vegas totals don’t tell us much else other than this team will be nothing but average. They have a nearly non-existent chance to win the division and the 9th-hardest strength of schedule.

Bet: I’d stay away from all things New Orleans.

Carolina Panthers

  • Baker Mayfield is a Carolina Panther, and I’m not sure that changes anyone’s outlook. Vegas still has Carolina’s win total sitting at 6.5 – a number backed by their Pythagorean win total.
  • Carolina is projected to score 346 points and allow 402.5; both numbers project to be bottom ten in the league. The good news is the Panthers have a Pythagorean win total of 7.
  • It’s certainly possible that Baker Mayfield and a healthy Christian McCaffery will bring life back to this mediocre offense since 2017. After all, Baker Mayfield has a .500 record as a starter and is joining a team that’s seen several successful seasons in the past few decades (sorry, Browns fans).

Bet: I’ll lean over 6.5 wins at plus money but will personally stay away. 

Atlanta Falcons

  • Atlanta has not posted a winning season since their 2017 Super Bowl hangover. Last season was the first time Matt Ryan failed to finish in the top 10 quarterbacks by passing yardage since 2009. Sure, some of that is his age, but the Falcons roster has been underwhelming.
  • In 2022, the Falcons are expected to start Marcus Mariota and are projected to finish with 340.75 points, the second-fewest; and allow 438.25, the second most. In 2021, the Falcons allowed 459 points, the third most.

Bet: So much will have to go right for this Atlanta Falcons team to show life on offense. The Pythagorean expected win total for Atlanta is a solid 6.0 wins, which provides some room to bet over five wins, but the Falcons are only favored in 2 games this season (the second-fewest). I won’t find myself betting on this team.

NFC North

Team Expected Points For Expected Points Allowed Pythagorean Win Total Vegas Win Total
Green Bay Packers 446.25 368.75 10.4 11.0
Minnesota Vikings 411.5 390.5 9.0 9.0
Detroit Lions 360.5 421.5 6.9 6.5
Chicago Bears 343 407.5 6.8 6.5

 

Green Bay Packers

  • Back-to-Back MVP Aaron Rodgers helped his team finish the 2021 season top 10 in points for (450). Despite the loss of Davante Adams, early Vegas projections don’t have Green Bay falling behind all that much in 2022. Green Bay is expected to score 446.25 points, just 3.75 points fewer and top 5 in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers will find a new number one in this offense.
  • The Packers have one of the best defensive backfields in football and one of the best defensive units they’ve had in a long time. It’s why the Packers are projected to allow the 4th fewest points in 2022, 368.75.

Bet: There is no future here too bold for the Packers. This team should win the division easily so -165 is not too steep for the division, nor is +1200 to win the Super Bowl. This team will be a contender until the very end.

Minnesota Vikings

  • Often, we get fantasy, and real football confused. There’s no doubt that the duo of RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson could be the best in the league, but that doesn’t mean this team is poised for greatness.
  • Many suggest the addition of former LA Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell could envigorate this team. Still, the Vikings are projected for 411.5 points this season – 13.5 fewer than they scored last season.
  • The defense added former Packer Za’Darius Smith and is expected to take a step forward this season. The Vikings are projected to allow 390.5 points this season, 35.5 fewer than they allowed last season.
  • Ultimately, this puts Minnesota with a Pythagorean win total of 9 wins – right on target of their 9-win total line.
  • I’ll leave you with this: Since 2011, twelve first-year head coaches have joined a team who finished with eight or more wins in the previous season. These coaches have never finished the season with more wins than in the previous season.
  • It’s also true that Kirk Cousins has only had one season with more than nine wins.

Bet: It’s contrarian, but I’ll take the Vikings under nine wins.

Chicago Bears

  • Despite having a 6.5 win total, the Bears are favored in only two games next season: their home games against the Texans and the Lions. As if that isn’t bad enough, projections have the Bears scoring just 32 more points next season, less than two more points per game.
  • The Bears will need everything to go right to the top of that 6.5-game mark. During the off-season, the Bears lost three-time All-Pro Khalil Mack, Pro-Bowler Allen Robinson, Danny Trevathan, and Tarik Cohen — among others. Meanwhile, Justin Fields’ supporting cast consists of Equanimeous St. Brown and Byron Pringle – two receivers who failed to make an impact with their future HOF quarterbacks.

Bet: Even with a Pythagorean win total of 6.8, I lean under 6.5 wins.

Detroit Lions

  • De’Andre Swift is someone I’m very excited to watch in 2022. Like the Bears, the Lions aren’t expected to make any big steps forward on offense, as they’re expected to score 35.5 points more than they did last season.
  • Unfortunately, the Lions aren’t expected to get much better on defense either. After allowing the 2nd most points in 2021, the Lions are expected to allow 467 points, the 4th most.

Bet: The Lions have a Pythagorean win total of 6.9, which bodes well for over 6.5 wins, but there isn’t enough value to consider taking it. I’ll stay away.

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