NFL Futures: Favorite Player Props (2019)

With everybody armed with their hot take statistical projections ready for their fantasy drafts, the list of player props will have an overwhelming amount of enticing options. This money will be pending for quite some time, so to narrow the potential bets down, try to look at new players, situations, or roles.

I decided to shoot for the players who were projected at either the floor or the ceiling of a wide range of potential outcomes. For example, it’s hard for Vegas to be optimistic about a breakout rookie season straight out of the gate. As offenses have continuously swayed toward more college-style personnel and play-calling, players such as David Montgomery and Kyler Murray should have no problems putting up quality counting stats based off workload alone. The other players are also young and are in a different set of circumstances from 2018.

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David Montgomery: Over 765.5 rushing yards (-120)
Despite his inability to progress into a versatile three-down player, Jordan Howard averaged 259 attempts per year during his tenure in Chicago. Many project David Montgomery to step into the same role this season, but few are acknowledging the possibility that Montgomery exceeds Howard’s usage rate. Montgomery finished his collegiate career with 71 receptions compared to Howard’s 24 and is far more elusive in the open field.

The coaching staff was never convinced Tarik Cohen could carry a hefty workload, in terms of both snaps and carries. Cohen finished the 2019 season with more fumbles than any other non-QB and he failed to surpass ten touches in any of their final four games. Incomer Mike Davis is the reason why Montgomery’s total isn’t higher, but the Bears were sixth in the NFL in carries, as their league-best defense consistently created running based game scripts for their offense. If Montgomery averages at least a modest 4.3 YPC next season, he would require just 179 carries to pass his 765.5 total. Running backs don’t carry the value they used to, so teams don’t trade up in the third round to grab one unless they’re confident that their skillset can be utilized immediately.

Sony Michel: Under 1,120.5 rushing yards (-130)
Sony Michel justified the first-round selection that New England spent on him in 2018 by following up a strong rookie regular season with a dominant playoff run. Sony averaged 71.6 YPG in 2018, a 16-game pace of 1,146 yards. As a Sony owner in fantasy, I was consistently rooting for Michel to make a name for himself in the passing game, which is his only roadblock toward becoming an elite fantasy option. He has the size, agility, and footwork to succeed as a receiver, but for whatever reason, he just struggles as a route runner and drops easy passes. Bill Belichick is notoriously impatient when it comes to both running backs and lacking fundamentals. Belichick also felt it was necessary to use a third-rounder on Damien Harris, the player who started over the first RB taken in the draft, Josh Jacobs.

The Patriots’ other options should limit Michel’s upside. Rex Burkhead averaged 7 carries a game in 2018, James White averaged 6, and Damien Harris will at least spell Sony on some first and second downs. Sony will still be the Patriots lead back to start the season, and I’m not predicting a full-on RBBC, but there are simply too many mouths to feed to not expect minor volume regression. His shortcomings as a receiver limit his rushing total because there are some carries to be had on expected passing downs. Also, do you want to bet on Sony Michel’s knee making it through a full 16 games?

Mike Williams: Over 738.5 yards (-110)
The former seventh overall pick made the most of his 66 targets last year with 664 yards and 10 touchdowns. Every sign surrounding Mike Williams heading into 2019 points towards a breakout season. Williams started 2018 as the Chargers WR4 behind Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, and Travis Benjamin. Tyrell signed with Oakland, and Benjamin will now serve as an occasional deep threat target. Melvin Gordon is legitimately considering holding out, and Ekeler can’t carry the load that Gordon can.

Williams’ ascension as a reliable target was on display at the end of 2018. He saw just 3.5 targets over his first 12 games, but he earned a respectable 6.8 over his last six, counting the playoff run when he was targeted 12 times in their most important game of the year. Williams generated a 134.4 passer rating when targeted, good for fifth in the league, and he dropped just two passes on the year. We’re looking at one of the best WR2s in the league, and you should expect the 6’4” 220-pound behemoth to continue his red zone and deep ball dominance while proving himself between the 20s as an every-down playmaker. Vegas’ 738.5 yard total comes out to just 46 yards per game, and Williams could hit this over by Week 13.

Kyler Murray: Over 435.5 Rushing Yards (-140)
Betting on a rookie QBs rushing total feels like a shot in the dark, but Kyler Murray’s natural ability will be on full display with the volume provided by Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive system. Offensive production and pace of play have increased over the last few years, and much has been made of the skewing of the passing statistics, but the NFL community has yet to properly adjust for the insane rushing totals QBs are putting up. Young QBs also tend to scramble at a higher rate than veterans who would rather stay in the pocket to both preserve their health and make things happen within the structure of the play call. Josh Allen was athletic, but not known to be a running QB, and he still paced for 842 rushing yards in 2018. Lamar Jackson, with all of his designed rushes, had a mind-boggling 1,271-yard pace.

Russell Wilson is a better comparison to estimate Murray’s rushing potential, as many have acknowledged their similarities as players. Wilson never topped 435 rushing yards or 4.3 YPC in college, but he’s averaged 522 rushing yards through injuries and behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines over his seven-year career. For reference, Murray topped 1,000 yards and 7.2 YPC last season at Oklahoma, mostly on scrambles. In 2018, Kliff Kingsbury’s Texas Tech offense was third in snaps per game and fourth in pass percentage among all Power 5 schools. Additional passing plays, added to a team who figures to be trailing in most games, leaves plenty of opportunities for Murray to tuck and run, even with limited designed runs.

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James Esposito is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from James, check out his archive and follow him @PropZillaa.