NFL Futures: First Coach Fired Betting Odds & Picks (2019)
Coaching an NFL team comes with big expectations from both owners and fans. This year, we will see one-quarter of the teams with new head coaches, and a few second-year coaches returning for another chance. As is the case every season, some teams will struggle tremendously to win football games and their coach will be on the hot seat. Last year, we saw Hue Jackson of the Cleveland Browns being the first coach fired after Week 8. Ownership was not pleased with the Browns’ 2-5-1 start and had little patience for a potential turnaround. We will take a look at the 2019 odds and try to analyze which coaches could be on their way out due to bad situations or possible underachievement.
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| COACH | ODDS |
| Jay Gruden (Redskins) | 3-1 |
| Pat Shurmur (Giants) | 7-1 |
| Matt Patricia (Lions) | 10-1 |
| Dan Quinn (Falcons) | 12-1 |
| Bill O’Brien (Texans) | 12-1 |
| No coach fired | 15-1 |
| Doug Marrone (Jaguars) | 16-1 |
| Mike Zimmer (Vikings) | 16-1 |
| Adam Gase (Jets) | 20-1 |
| Brian Flores (Dolphins) | 20-1 |
| Jason Garrett (Cowboys) | 20-1 |
| Ron Rivera (Panthers) | 20-1 |
| Mike Tomlin (Steelers) | 25-1 |
| Anthony Lynn (Chargers) | 30-1 |
| Freddie Kitchens (Browns) | 30-1 |
| Mike Vrabel (Titans) | 30-1 |
| Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals) | 35-1 |
| Matt LaFleur (Packers) | 35-1 |
| Sean McDermott (Bills) | 35-1 |
| Kyle Shanahan (49ers) | 35-1 |
| Vic Fangio (Broncos) | 40-1 |
| Pete Carroll (Seahawks) | 40-1 |
| Zac Taylor (Bengals) | 50-1 |
| Bruce Arians (Buccaneers) | 50-1 |
| John Harbaugh (Ravens) | 50-1 |
| Jon Gruden (Raiders) | 50-1 |
| Frank Reich (Colts) | 75-1 |
| Matt Nagy (Bears) | 75-1 |
| Sean Payton (Saints) | 75-1 |
| Sean McVay (Rams) | 100-1 |
| Doug Pederson (Eagles) | 100-1 |
| Andy Reid (Chiefs) | 100-1 |
| Bill Belichick (Patriots) | 150-1 |
At the top of the board, we see Washington Redskins coach Jay Gruden the betting favorite at 3-1 odds (+300). With just one playoff appearance in five years, Gruden will have to show owner Daniel Snyder that he is capable of turning this franchise around in 2019. Pat Shurmur (Giants) is second on the board at 7-1 odds (+700). After coaching his team to a 5-11 record last year and a last-place finish in the NFC East, Shurmur will also have his work cut out for him. The next three favorites on the board are the Lions’ Matt Patricia (+1000), Falcons’ Dan Quinn (+1200), and Texans’ Bill O’Brien (+1200). It is interesting to note that no first-year coaches are in the top five of the betting board.
Best Bets
Patt Shurmur (NYG): 7-1
After losing one of the game’s most talented receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. and still having Eli Manning under center, the Giants will simply struggle all year to win football games. Shurmur coached the Giants to a 5-11 record in 2018, and things could be even worse this year. With the front office wanting to develop rookie quarterback Daniel Jones, they may look for new leadership to guide the team over the next couple years.
The Giants have only been in the playoffs once since their Super Bowl victory in 2012. They need a new identity and will have to build around their young superstar running back Saquon Barkley and stud tight end Evan Engram for years to come. I do not expect Eli Manning to have his starting job by the end of the year as the Giants’ ownership will most definitely shake things up and try to get out of this mess they are in.
Matt Patricia (DET): 10-1
This is the best value for bettors to jump on near the top of the board. Patricia will head into his second season with the Lions in efforts to improve upon a 6-10 record and a last-place finish in the NFC North. This year will come with increased expectations for Patricia, as the Lions went out and added some key pieces to their team this offseason, including defensive end Justin Flowers, cornerback Justin Coleman, and tight-end Jesse James. The front office expects the Lions to be competitive and will want results from Patricia.
The Lions have one of the worst schedules in the league in the first half of the season. This is very worrisome for Patricia as he tries to get off to a good start. They have a winnable opening game on the road versus the Cardinals, but after that, they are big underdogs against the Chargers, Eagles, Chiefs, Packers, and Vikings. It will be difficult for Patricia to steal one or two of these games, and he could be on the hot seat early on. Players on the Lions were also vocal about their distaste for Patricia’s coaching tactics, and he lost the trust of veterans early on last year.
Doug Marrone (JAX): 16/1
Things are not shaping up for a good season for Marrone and the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have had a plethora of injuries to open training camp this summer. Big names such as wide receiver Marquise Lee, offensive lineman Cam Robinson, guard Andrew Norwell, and cornerback A.J. Bouye may not be ready to start the season. This is very troublesome as the Jags have a difficult schedule to start their season. The Jaguars are an underdog or pick ’em in six of the team’s first seven games. If they cannot squeak out a couple wins, Marrone could be on the hot seat early.
The Jaguars surprisingly finished last in the AFC South last year with a 5-11 record. Not long ago they were many expert’s pick to go to the Super Bowl, due to their rock-solid defense and smart coaching. If Marrone cannot right the ship this season the Jaguars’ front office will most surely shake things up and look elsewhere to get back into the playoff picture.
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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.