NFL Futures: New England Patriots to Make the Playoffs? (2021)

The 2021 New England Patriots will mark the first true year of the post-“Patriot Way” era. New England spent $359,886,620 the past 10 years combined (according to Warren Sharp). Whereas the Patriots spent $227,500,000 in the first two days of free agency this offseason. The Patriots used former quarterback Tom Brady to cover all the holes on the roster. Head coach Bill Belichick acquired undervalued free agents and schemed up his defense to compensate for lack of talent.

However, Brady departed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season, and the Patriots signed Cam Newton on a team-friendly deal. But, it was a lost season for New England who couldn’t overcome all the COVID-related turmoil. As a result, the Patriots did what they haven’t since hiring Belichick: Spent in free agency and drafted a quarterback in the first round.

Let’s discuss if the 2021 “Patriot Way” can get New England back on track after missing the postseason for the first time since 2008.

Check out our consensus odds for all teams to make or miss the playoffs >>

New England Patriots to make the playoffs?

On Offense

The Patriots are running it back with Newton and signed several pass catchers to get the most out of him. New England inked two high-priced tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Also, two mediocre wide receivers in Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor. I’m skeptical the Patriots throwing money at offensive issues will lead to the improvement needed based on the following rationale.

Maybe these moves would help New England’s offense if the GOAT were still under center, but how about running it back with Newton? I doubt it. Newton’s injury problems have significantly reduced his dual-threat impact. And Newton has never excelled in the pocket, so it’d be foolhardy to expect something different this season.

Henry has dealt with a myriad of injury issues throughout his career and is an average starting tight end at this point. Smith’s previous season with the Tennessee Titans was his career-best. But, how much of that was due to quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s transformation and running back Derrick Henry’s dominance? New England overspent for their No. 1 and 2 wide receivers. Bourne has started just 13 of his 58 career games while averaging just 2.4 receptions and 30.5 yards per game.  Agholor is putting up 3.1 receptions and 39.2 yards per game in his six-year career, and his 59.6% catch rate would rank 167th last season.

On Defense

New England’s defense will most likely have to carry this team as it did in 2019. But there’s a lot to like about this defense. First of all, linebacker Dont’a Hightower returns after being a COVID opt-out last season, and New England’s secondary is still elite. Moreover, the Patriots brought back linebacker Kyle Van Noy via free agency and signed defensive end Matt Judon this offseason.

With Belichick at the helm, there’s an expectation that New England’s defense will be in the upper echelon. However, defense isn’t as predictive as offense, and the NFL is a quarterback-driven league. The Patriots’ will most likely need injury and turnover luck with a cushiony schedule to overcome offensive limitations.

Easy but tough schedule

Going from an easy to difficult strength of schedule, or vice versa, is one of the biggest year-over-year regression indicators. In fact, nine of the 11 teams with the easiest strength of schedule (according to Football Outsiders) made the playoffs last season, and six of them won their division. But, New England’s 2021 schedule is a double-edged sword for a couple of reasons.

First, the Patriots are going from Football Outsiders‘ 12th-toughest schedule last season to the 17th-toughest schedule (based on forecasted opponent win totals). Furthermore, according to Sharp, New England goes from the eighth-toughest schedule by total efficiency to the 18th-toughest schedule. So there’s a solid chance the Patriots will add a win or two this season based on scheduled opponents alone.

Conversely, the NFL schedule makers did New England no favors situationally this season. For instance, Sharp ranks New England with the worst net rest differential, and the Patriots play an NFL-most three teams off a bye week. Plus, New England’s bye week is negated because it visits the Indianapolis Colts, who are also coming off a bye.

This will ultimately be the reason why New England misses the playoffs this season. Brady makes up for whatever situational disadvantages and lack of roster talent, while the same cannot be said about the Patriots’ current quarterback room.

Pick: New England Patriots will miss the playoffs (-135)

Pick: Washington to miss the playoffs (-140)

• Indianapolis Colts to make the playoffs?
• Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs?
• Washington Football Team to make the playoffs?

Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Geoff Clark is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Geoff, check out his archive and follow him @Geoffery_Clark.