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NFL Futures: NFC North Win Totals Betting Picks (2021)

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For now, the NFC North is one of the trickier divisions to project in the NFL this season.

The will-he, won’t-he Aaron Rodgers saga continues to dominate storylines around the division. A definitive answer on the future of the longtime Packers quarterback will create a seismic shift in the division’s power dynamic. What does that mean for bettors looking at win totals wagers? If you guess right regarding the eventual conclusion to the Rodgers drama, you might create value for yourself by placing your bet before all the dominos fall.

Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for NFL Win Totals >>

Let’s get into the nitty-gritty on the current odds for win totals across the NFC North, and decide where we think good value could exist based on the events that have yet to unfold.

Green Bay Packers

  • Over 9.5 wins: +125 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Under 9.5 wins: -150 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The situation surrounding Aaron Rodgers at present is so dire, so uncertain, that DraftKings Sportsbook doesn’t offer odds on the Packers win total for the upcoming season. Fortunately, FanDuel is braving these waters—for now, anyway. With a total set at 9.5 wins, the book has baked in the possibility of Rodgers not returning to Green Bay. The juice is heavy on the ‘Under’ side of this bet, which tells me FanDuel is strongly considering the possibility that A-Rod has played his last snap in the green and gold.

After all, the Packers won 13 games in a 16-game schedule with Rodgers under center last season. There’s just no way Green Bay wouldn’t smash the over on this total if Rodgers does return. Let’s discuss the possibilities, though, if Rodgers doesn’t play. In a 17-game season, could the Packers reach a double-digit win total with Jordan Love under center? Rendering bold claims about a quarterback who we’ve never seen perform at the professional level is a dangerous game. But am I crazy to think the Packers might be all right with Love as the starting signal-caller?

Again, the comparisons I’m about to draw are entirely unfair to the 22-year-old gunslinger, but the philosophy of taking time to learn the ropes as a backup to a veteran worked out pretty well for Patrick Mahomes. Even a young Aaron Rodgers, whether he appreciated those years or not, had the opportunity to become acclimated with the NFL game at a slower pace as he waited for his shot behind Brett Favre. Justin Herbert wasn’t viewed as a guaranteed star-in-the-making at QB until he showed it on the field a year ago. Could last year’s waiting game benefit Love in 2021?

Replacing the reigning MVP of the league with a total question mark is scary, but I think the odds reflect the possibility adequately here. Sure, if we get word that Rodgers is finished in Green Bay, this win total and odds will plummet even further. If that’s what you expect to happen, don’t worry about betting the ‘Over’ until a later date. Alternatively, if you’re like me—you think Jordan Love might be a solid football player but also believe there’s a better-than-equal shot that Rodgers plays for the Packers in the upcoming season—it might not be a bad idea to slam the ‘Over’ just as swiftly as your internet connection will allow.

I could end up with egg on my face for this one, but as it stands, getting plus-odds on 9.5 wins for the Packers feels like it could be the steal of the NFL betting season.

PICK: Over 9.5 wins (+125 at FanDuel SportsBook)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL: High

Minnesota Vikings

  • Over 9.0 wins: -110 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Under 9.0 wins: -110 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Over 8.5 wins: -170 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Under 8.5 wins: +145 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Klint Kubiak takes over the reins as offensive coordinator following the retirement of his father, Gary. Kubiak has spent the last couple of seasons as the Vikings quarterbacks coach and will make his first foray into NFL play-calling this season. It’s an intriguing storyline, the son replacing the father at the head of an offense that contains numerous weapons for Kirk Cousins to deploy. Though the Vikings typically run through Dalvin Cook, Cousins showed the ability to make plays when called upon last year. The Vikings will lean on Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen to move the chains in 2021.

Lapses on the defensive side of the ball were central to the Vikings’ 7-9 finish a season ago. Minnesota finished fourth from the bottom of the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 29.7 points per game. The Vikings also finished in the bottom 10 of the league in total yardage on defense. To address the problems, Minnesota spent aggressively on free agents. They signed corners Patrick Peterson and Mackensie Alexander, safety Xavier Woods, and interior defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson. 

With continuity on offense and a retooled defense, the Vikings have established a foundation for success in the upcoming season. I genuinely like the pieces in place for this roster to make some noise in 2021. But when I take a look at their schedule, I’m finding it more challenging to chalk up wins for them than I expected. Based on last year’s records of their 2021 opponents, the Vikings grade out with the fifth-toughest strength of schedule in the NFL this season. 

I’m moderately comfortable in Minnesota’s ability to finish around .500, but double-digit wins? To see a path, you’d need the version of Cousins you saw last year to carry over into 2021, as well as for the off-season additions on defense to land as intended. The books have the Vikings pegged pretty much perfectly, in my view. I’ll lean narrowly toward the ‘Over’ based on a belief in the foundation this organization has built. Still, this is not a win total I’m eager to bet in any direction—maybe someone will give me favorable odds to bet on an exact finish of 9-8 for the Vikings this season.

PICK: Over 9.0 wins (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Low

Chicago Bears

  • Over 7.5 wins: +100 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Under 7.5 wins: -110 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The 2020 Bears defense ranked in the top half of the league in scoring and total yardage. They had Allen Robinson being Allen Robinson. They watched David Montgomery evolve into the workhorse running back they hoped he would be when they selected him in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. There were several legitimate bright spots for the team, one of which was a playoff berth despite a mediocre 8-8 record.

Their problem was quarterback play. Whether it was Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles, the collective performance of Bears quarterbacks in 2020 was downright awful. The Bears wisely traded up to land Justin Fields, giving Chicago a chance to turn over a new leaf at a position that has haunted them since they chose Trubisky in the same draft class that featured Patrick Mahomes.

So now that Chicago has their man, will Matt Nagy do the right thing and play him? How far does he plan to take this Andy Dalton charade? Chicago fans love Fields already. Getting the Bears to put him on the field feels like a soap opera in the making. I’m not sure how anyone who watched Dalton attempt to guide the Cowboys’ offense last year could consider him a better option to start at quarterback, but here we are.

Whether Dalton or Fields at quarterback, the Bears have a chance at competence again this season. They either retained or adequately replaced their core players on defense, and they (hopefully) fixed the most notable hole on the roster with a new quarterback. The schedule, as is the case across the NFC North, is expected to be especially difficult. I’m inclined to believe that Nagy will hand Fields the keys to the car in time for him to drive the Bears to another season in the neighborhood of a .500 finish. Even a record of 8-9 would clear the ‘Over’ based on the current lines at DraftKings and FanDuel. I’m leaning toward that bet on this year’s Bears.

PICK: Over 7.5 wins (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Medium

Detroit Lions

  • Over 5.0 wins: +100 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Under 5.0 wins: -120 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Over 4.5 wins: -140 (DraftKings Sportbook)
  • Under 4.5 wins: +120 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you’re a Lions fan, this season is going to be tough to watch. If you don’t care about the Lions one way or another, this season has the potential to be pretty hilarious. 

My impression of Dan Campbell: he’s Michael Scott from The Office in the body of an NFL head coach. Remember the introductory press conference where he insisted his team would eat multiple hunks of flesh off of the bodies of their opponents during games? We got that glorious, cringe-worthy soundbite before the guy ever coached a game in Detroit! Imagine what he’ll say after a loss.

Don’t get me wrong, Matt Patricia was abysmal. Detroit needed a change. But this guy? I’m going on record now: this dude is going to be a disaster of epic proportions. As a neutral, outside observer, I am here for it. 

In fairness, the Lions aren’t exactly giving Campbell much to work with for his first year as head coach. They replaced Matthew Stafford with Jared Goff. Kenny Golladay is gone. Marvin Jones is gone. Do the Lions have a No. 1 wide receiver? The potential rise of Amon-Ra St. Brown might be the only reason to watch this offense in 2021. That is, aside from the GIF-worthy faces I expect to see from Goff as he walks off the field following interceptions or third-down incompletions.

If you haven’t noticed by now, I’m pretty low on the Lions. I don’t see Campbell’s throwback hard-nosed football guy act panning out without more quality players emerging from this roster than I anticipate. The Lions had the single-worst defense in the NFL last year in both yardage and point allowed. They traded their quarterback, their best player, to Los Angeles for a lesser player at the position, a player Sean McVay drafted and then decided he didn’t want anymore. 

I see absolutely no way this works out for the Lions. Frankly, I’m surprised DraftKings makes bettors pay so much juice to take the ‘Over’ 4.5. I’m not complaining, though, because I’m heavy on the ‘Under’ for that bet. I have no interest in the 5-win total at FanDuel because I’m not worried about a push. I don’t know that these Lions win three games, let alone four or five. They are going to be terrible.

PICK: Under 4.5 wins (+120 at DraftKings)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Infinite

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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.