NFL Futures Odds & Picks: Best Bet to Win the NFC North (2023)
We continue our division-by-division future betting preview with a deep dive into the NFC North, a division that appears to be flipped on its head entering the 2023 campaign. For the past decade, the North has primarily been dominated by the Green Bay Packers, who won the division crown eight times from 2011-2021.
But last year, the Packers fell off, which opened the door for the Minnesota Vikings. Now, Aaron Rodgers is gone, leaving the division more wide open than ever. In fact, the defending champions aren’t the favorites to win back-to-back division titles. The upstart Detroit Lions will enter the year as favorites to win their first division title since 1993 when they played in the NFC Central division.
Who’s the best bet to finish the season as kings of the NFC North? Here’s my full breakdown and best bet for the division. Also, be sure to check out my previews of the AFC divisions.
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Best Bet to Win the NFC North
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
NFC North Division Title Odds
Detroit Lions (+140)
There may not be a more intriguing division race than the NFC North. With Rodgers out of town, the division has more uncertainty than it’s had in at least a decade. This explains why the collective odds across the division are the shortest in the NFL, as you can make a viable case for each of the four teams.
Let’s start with Detroit, who comes into the year with the pressure of expectations. After a dismal 1-6 start, the Lions won eight of their next 10 games, barely missing the playoffs while spoiling Green Bay’s playoff hopes in a resilient win at Lambeau Field in Week 18.
Detroit finished ninth in overall DVOA in 2022, ranking fifth offensively and 28th defensively. Despite an explosive offense, Detroit was undermined by a miserable secondary, and that’s where the Lions’ front office went to work during the offseason.
Detroit overhauled its secondary, replacing DeShon Elliott, Mike Hughes and failed first-round pick Jeff Okudah with veteran cornerbacks Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley, as well as safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Those additions should help Detroit’s pass defense reach at least league average in 2023, which could help this team take the leap many are expecting. Aidan Hutchinson could be the league’s next great pass rusher, and he and James Houston combined for 17.5 sacks a season ago. However, this defense still lacks the depth to become an elite unit.
Offensively, Detroit replaced D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams with David Montgomery and first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs. Amon-Ra St. Brown could be an outstanding slot receiver, but the Lions need someone else to step up on the outside. Detroit’s still rather thin at wide receiver, as veterans Josh Reynolds and Marvin Jones headline the rest of the group until Jameson Williams returns from a six-game suspension.
The Lions have plenty of talent across key positions but will rely on improvement in the secondary and at skill positions, as well as another strong season from QB Jared Goff.
Minnesota Vikings (+275)
If there’s a team across the NFL poised for a letdown season, it’s the Minnesota Vikings. First-year head coach Kevin O’Connell did a tremendous job getting his team to the postseason right away. But O’Connell’s offense and some good fortune masked a defense that was among the league’s worst.
Minnesota finished 27th in defensive DVOA a season ago, ranking outside the top 20 in both run and pass defense. The unit ultimately was Minnesota’s downfall, as it served up 443 yards and 31 points to Daniel Jones and the New York Giants in their playoff loss.
Minnesota’s secondary was particularly susceptible, and their only free-agent addition in the back end was cornerback Byron Murphy, who’s a solid player but not a true CB1. The Vikings also drafted USC corner Mekhi Blackmon in the third round and LSU cornerback Jay Ward in the fourth round. Minnesota’s commitment to improving the secondary was smart, but these moves likely won’t result in a drastic improvement in 2023.
Minnesota also didn’t do much to improve a lackluster pass rush. The Vikings signed veteran defensive end Marcus Davenport, who posted nine sacks in 2021 but had just 0.5 in 2022. The hiring of Brian Flores as defensive coordinator gives me hope that this unit could improve based on schematics and coaching alone, but the personnel still remains too large of a liability.
Offensively, the biggest questions for the Vikings will be how Alexander Mattison and Jordan Addison replace mainstays Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen. Mattison has proven to be an effective back in relief of Cook, but he has rarely shouldered a full workload. Addison was one of the top receiver prospects in the draft and has the chance to make an instant impact alongside Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, who will command a bulk of their opponents’ attention.
Minnesota will likely need to win games via shootouts in 2023. Still, after winning 11 games by eight points or fewer in 2022, the Vikings seem poised to take a step back and aren’t worth a bet at these odds.
Chicago Bears (+400)
The Chicago Bears are a wild card to watch in this division. I’ve already advocated for taking Chicago to go over their win total, but do they have the upside to win the division?
It likely depends on how much Justin Fields develops as a passer. After intentionally fielding one of the league’s worst rosters, the Bears were one of the league’s most active teams this offseason. Much of their offseason activity was dedicated to helping their potential franchise QB.
Chicago’s addition of D.J. Moore was among my favorite moves of the offseason. Moore is as reliable as they come and will be by far the most complete receiver Fields has worked with. He can work the short, intermediate and deep levels and offers reliable hands. He should pair nicely with Darnell Mooney, who is more of the home run threat in the offense.
The Bears also spent some significant capital on upgrading the offensive line. They signed guard Nate Davis and drafted Tennessee tackle Darnell Wright 10th overall. If Wright can serve as a reliable tackle in his rookie season, this line should improve.
Chicago also spent heavily at linebacker, bringing in Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. Both players should help improve a dismal run defense while offering value as coverage linebackers.
The Bears still have plenty of flaws, however. After ranking dead-last in sacks last season, Chicago didn’t do much to address the defensive trenches. The Bears also have questions along the offensive line and key skill position players, as there isn’t much behind the Moore-Mooney combo. They’ll also rely on Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson to replace the departed Montgomery.
The Bears are absolutely an improved team, and they’ll benefit from a fourth-place schedule and a weak division. If there’s an upside team to take a shot on, the Bears might be that team.
Green Bay Packers (+400)
And finally, there are the Packers. The offseason was mainly about departures for Green Bay, who saw several players join Rodgers in New York. Now, Green Bay’s hopes in 2023 will hinge upon Jordan Love, who is practically an unknown commodity heading into the season.
Love, Green Bay’s first-round pick in 2020, threw 21 passes last season. There’s practically no sample size to work with, making any projections surrounding Green Bay a guessing game at best.
But here’s what we do know: Green Bay finished 12th in overall DVOA despite Rodgers being limited by an inexperienced group of receivers and a midseason thumb injury. Green Bay still has a good head coach in Matt LaFleur, as well as some enticing playmakers in Christian Watson and Aaron Jones.
Once again, the Packers went with a draft-and-develop approach this offseason, hardly spending in free agency and instead using 13 draft picks to help rebuild a roster in transition. Players such as Lukas Van Ness, Luke Musgrave and Jayden Reed all offer some intrigue and serious upside, but it may take some time for these rookies to become impact players.
Your opinion of the Packers pretty much aligns with your opinion of Love. And while the Packers have a solid roster with win-now veterans, there are still too many unproven assets - namely Love - to warrant a bet at only +400 odds.
Bottom Line
I’ll take a shot here in a division that feels ripe for a surprising outcome. Chicago has as much upside as any team in this division. If Fields develops into a dynamic dual-threat, the Bears could have the best QB in the division for years to come. The pass rush and young secondary worry me, but at +400, the Bears present plenty of value as a longer shot.
Best Bet: Chicago Bears to Win the NFC North (+400)
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