NFL Futures Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tight Ends (2022)
As the NFL season draws nearer, here’s a look at four tight end futures worth considering.
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Mark Andrews under 84.5 Receptions (-140)
Mark Andrews exploded in 2021 and finished the year as Fantasy Football’s top tight end. There’s no denying his talent and importance to the Baltimore offense. Unfortunately, what we saw in 2021 was a blip. 2021 was basically Mark Andrews’ fantasy ceiling.
Mark Andrews had a career-high 107 receptions in 2021. He has averaged 66 receptions per year. Andrews saw a career-high target share too. Still, it came out of desperation; The 2021 Baltimore Ravens were banged up. With Lamar Jackson on the field, the Ravens threw the ball 10% more than they ran. But without Lamar, the Ravens passed the ball 42% more than they ran. Extrapolating Andrews’s target percentage from when Lamar Jackson was on the field last season, Andrews would’ve only had 82 receptions on the year.
When healthy, the Ravens prefer to run the ball. When the Ravens chose to pass the ball, Mark Andrews isn’t even the player targeted the most frequently. He’s not the number one option in a run-first team, and this number will be difficult to top given his usage with a healthy team.
Last season was Mark Andrews ceiling. Don’t expect repeat results.
Zach Ertz over 60.5 receptions (-115)
Zach Ertz finds himself in a similar position as Mark Andrews but with different results. The Cardinals were banged up on offense as DeAndre Hopkins, Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Chase Edmonds all missed time. The difference is that Ertz was involved in the offense no matter what.
Last season, Ertz had 86 targets and 56 receptions in 11 games with his brand new offense in Arizona. At 5 receptions per game, he’d shatter the 60.5 reception total with 85 receptions. Ertz saw five receptions a game, both with and without Kyler Murray. Zach Ertz also had the team’s highest target percentage without DeAndre Hopkins on the field.
Ertz will have a full off-season preparing with the team and will be a top 3 receiving option in the offense despite injuries and suspensions.
Dalton Schultz over 725.5 receiving yards (+100)
There are several reasons to love this play – one of which is that it’s at plus money. That is not fair value.
Schultz topped this number in 2021 when he finished with 808 receiving yards. The Cowboys were mostly healthy last year, which is encouraging given that Dalton Schultz had the second-most targets on the team, just behind CeeDee Lamb. The departures of Amari Cooper and Ced Wilson mean that there are 165 vacated targets up for grabs in the top-scoring offense of 2021. Schultz was fed the ball in 2021; there’s no reason that should change in 2022.
I’d also be happy taking Schultz to finish over 69.5 receptions, but the juice is better on the yardage. Not to mention, Dalton Schultz finished top 5 in YAC across all tight ends last season.
Kyle Pitts under 68.5 Receptions (-105)
Kyle Pitts was awesome in 2021. Absolutely spectacular. And he still finished with fewer than 68.5 receptions despite having the most targets of any player on the Falcons last season. I expect rookie Drake London to command a high target share without Calvin Ridley, but that shouldn’t impact Pitts.
The concern with Pitts is the quarterback downgrade. Matt Ryan had 560 pass attempts last season. New Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota has not thrown the ball more than 453 times in one season. Kyle Pitts should still be the first read in this offense – but how can we expect him to have more catches in the same role with a quarterback who passes less?
I expect Pitts to take a step forward in year 2, particularly in the RedZone, but for him to outproduce his rookie season receptions, he’ll need his quarterback to play like Matt Ryan. In Week 1 of the preseason, Mariota rushed twice and threw three times on five dropbacks. We know who Mariota is, and he has a tendency to run. Marcus Mariota’s most completions in one season are 281 (through 15 games). Pitts would need to command ~25% of Mariotas completions to break 68.5 receptions. For comparison, the most that Travis Kelce has ever commanded of Patrick Mahomes’ completions is 23%.
Matthew Freedman’s 2022 NFL Season-Long Player Projections & Prop Bets>>
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