NFL Futures: Rookie Quarterback Markets Odds, Picks & Predictions
From a statistical perspective, this season's crop of rookie quarterbacks has performed at a similar level. But as the regular season winds down, someone will end up leading the pack in things like passing yards, touchdowns and interceptions.
Bettors can find odds on who will lead the rookie quarterback markets at bet365.
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Rookie Quarterback Markets
(Odds courtesy of bet365)
As we head down the stretch run of the regular season, it remains to be seen which rookie quarterback will record the most passing yards, passing touchdowns, and interceptions. Each category has a leader, of course, but no one has a lead that can't be overcome.
Most Regular Season Rookie Passing Yards
Bo Nix is the current leader among the three, with 2,842 yards, followed by Jayden Daniels with 2,819 yards and Caleb Williams with 2,746 yards. With less than 100 yards separating them, all three are an explosive game away from surging into the lead. But who is more likely to have such a game?
Of the three, Williams has had more 300+ yard games with three; Daniels and Nix have only had one each. His production, however, is unpredictable. During Chicago's seven-game losing streak, Williams has recorded three games with fewer than 200 yards passing, three between 200-299 yards and one 300+ yard day.
Daniels was a reliable source of 200-270 yards passing from Week 2-6 (all wins). Over his last six games, however, his numbers have ranged from 191-326, with four ranging from 191-209 yards. Nix, however, has seen his stats improve as the season progresses.
Over his last six games, he's had four games of 273+ passing yards.
Daniels has three favorable matchups against the Saints, Falcons and Cowboys coming up. Nix has two solid matchups against the Chiefs and Bengals but also faces two of the stingier pass defenses in the Colts and Chargers.
Williams will face two formidable defenses (Lions and Seahawks) and two easier ones (Vikings and Packers) but will also need to throw more if the Bears are going to try to win since they will likely be playing from behind often.
The explosive potential and likelihood he'll be playing from behind make Williams an enticing pick. But while his highs are high, his lows are extremely low. However, there is a chance Nix and/or Daniels may not play in Week 18 if their playoff seeding is locked up.
Daniels is playing better than the rest, but Williams may be more likely to play every remaining game. So, he may not need a big game to take the lead. But with all three AFC Wild Card teams (as of this week) holding onto 8-5 records, there is a good chance Nix will be playing to win in Week 18.
Pick: Bo Nix (+175)
Most Regular Season Rookie Passing Touchdowns
- Bo Nix (QB – DEN) | -120
- Caleb Williams (QB – CHI) | +250
- Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS) | +300
- Drake Maye (QB – NE) | +5000
Nix is the clubhouse leader at the moment with 17 touchdowns, followed by Williams (16), Daniels (15) and Maye (11).
With games against the Cardinals, Bills (twice) and Chargers, the road ahead looks too tough for Maye to have a chance. He would need quite a few garbage-time touchdowns in every remaining game to have a shot.
Nix and Williams have thrown seven touchdowns in their last three games, while Daniels has passed for six.
Nix is the more likely of the four to come out ahead, but I see a lot of value in Willams. Between garbage time and always playing from behind, he could eclipse Nix for the lead.
Pick: Caleb Wiliams (+250)
Most Regular Season Rookie Interceptions
- Drake Maye (QB – NE) | -135
- Bo Nix (QB – DEN) | +140
- Caleb Williams (QB – CHI) | +1600
- Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS) | +1600
Nix and Maye have both thrown eight interceptions this season. Williams has not thrown one in his last seven games (five total interceptions thrown this season). Daniels has thrown four over the last three weeks to bring his total to six. Maye has a tough road ahead and could certainly end the season with the most, but there is value in betting on Daniels.
Daniels did a great job of protecting the ball in the first two and a half months of the season but has struggled over the last few weeks. He could do so again for the remainder of the season, but he could just as easily press too hard to win and lock down a playoff spot.
Pick: Jayden Daniels (+1600)