NFL Futures: Rookie Receiving Yards Leader Odds, Picks & Predictions
Nothing is certain until the regular season ends, but many of the statistical races appear decided. Joe Burrow will lead the league in passing yards, Saquon Barkley in rushing and Ja'Marr Chase in receiving, to name a few. But the race to be the rookie receiving yards leader remains up for grabs.
The three leaders are all within 40 yards of each other, with odds ranging from +100 to +275.
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NFL Futures: Rookie Receiving Yards Leader Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of bet365)
The three players in question are:
- Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX): +100
- 80 Receptions/1,179 Receiving Yards/10 Touchdowns
- Malik Nabers (WR – NYG): +210
- 104 Receptions/1,140 Receiving Yards/6 Touchdowns
- Brock Bowers (TE – LV): +275
- 108 Receptions/1,144 Receiving Yards/4 Touchdowns
All three are on teams that have long since been eliminated from the playoffs. The Raiders have the highest-ranked passing offense of the three (No. 13; Jacksonville: No. 23, New York: No. 27). They have all played with more than one starting quarterback this season.
The highest offensive line grade last week belonged to the Jaguars with a C-. Both the Giants and Raiders graded out with a D. No team can expect help from their run game. The Giants and Jaguars are averaging right around 100 yards a game on the ground, while the Jaguars are barely averaging just above 80.
None of these receivers were in situations this season that were conducive to success. Yet, they will go into Week 18 ranked inside the top eight wide receivers in the NFL as rookies. But with no one being on a pass-friendly team with a quality quarterback, how do you choose who to bet on?
Let's take a quick look at the candidates and their Week 18 opponents.
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX): +100
It was shaping up to be a lackluster rookie season for Brian Thomas Jr., but then Trevor Lawrence got hurt, and things took a turn for the better. With Mac Jones at quarterback, Thomas started getting targeted 10+ times per game. In the four games Jones started, Thomas was targeted 49 times, recording 34 receptions.
This week, his Jaguars will face an Indianapolis Colts team that just gave up 309 yards and four touchdown passes to Drew Lock and the New York Giants. Malik Nabers had seven catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns.
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG): +210
Except for last week's sensational 171-yard effort, Malik Nabers' production has been a bit more consistent. He has never been targeted fewer than seven times but often saw double-digit targets. Over the last four weeks, he's been one of the more productive receivers with 400 yards.
However, it is hard to say just how challenging his opponent will be in Week 18. The Philadelphia Eagles have already won the division and are locked into their spot. Will they play their stars or will the Giants face backups? If it's backups, Nabers may have a shot at another big day to end the season.
Brock Bowers (TE – LV): +275
The most significant issue Bowers has faced all season is the revolving door inside the quarterback room. He's played with three quarterbacks this season - none of them were too impressive. Twice this season he had a three-game stretch where he was targeted 10+ times in each game.
But he'll face a tough Chargers defense this week. Or will he? The Chargers are locked into their playoff spot and don't need to win. But that doesn't mean they'll sit people.
Best Rookie Receiving Yards Leader Bet
Brian Thomas Jr. at +100 is a solid pick. Mac Jones has looked good in recent weeks and the Colts’ defense has been generous to passing games of late. But Malik Nabers is not a bad bet, either. However, wait for news on how the Eagles plan on approaching this week.
If Philly is going with its starters, then pass on Nabers.