NFL Futures: Washington Commanders to Win the NFC East (2024)

It's been a long since the Washington Commanders have been 'good.' You have to go back to 2016 to find their last winning record. Yes, they've won the division since then, but with a 7-9 record in a bad year for the NFC East. But it is starting to look like this could be a special season for the Commanders.

How good? Let's just say it has the potential to win bettors some money if things continue to improve.

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NFL Futures: Washington Commanders to Win the NFC East

(Odds via BetMGM)

Washington Commanders NFC East Odds Line Movement

When NFC East odds opened at BetMGM, the Commanders were tied with the Giants for longest odds at +1000. After briefly dipping down to +900, they settled in at +1200 to start the season. After dropping their season opener 37-20 to the Buccaneers, their division odds jumped to +1800, giving them a 5.26% chance of winning the NFC East.

But then they beat the Giants thanks to seven field goals in Week 2 and their odds dropped to +1200, giving them a 7.69% chance. Then came their big 38-33 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 3.

Their odds of winning the NFC East have since moved to +700 (12.5% chance of winning).

However, while it is nice to see their odds get shorter, which can only mean the team is playing better football, their odds are still pretty long compared to the Philadelphia Eagles (-200) and Dallas Cowboys (+260). If bettors are to buy the Commanders, that means there is reason to believe they can win the division.

NFC East is Ripe For a Takeover

Beating the Giants and a struggling Bengals team is one thing, but taking down the Eagles and Cowboys is something else entirely. But based on what we have seen from all three teams, Washington winning the NFC East is not such a farfetched idea. The competition within the division is not especially tough this year.

Like the Commanders, Philadelphia will go into Week 4 with a 2-1 record. But the Eagles are the only team in the division with a '+' scoring differential. They rank second to the Ravens in total offense (411.7 yards per game), have a top-five rushing and passing attack and rank 12th in scoring with 23.3 points per game.

Defensively, the Eagles have not been as good as they were in recent years, but they still have a solid defense. However, there is one major thing holding them back - turnovers.  They have the second-worst differential in the league at -4 (they've committed six turnovers while only forcing two).

As for the Cowboys, the defense can't stop the run and is giving up close to 400 yards and nearly 30 points per game. The offense has been stagnant except for the fourth quarter vs. the Ravens. They can't run the ball and settle for field goals too often. With the two big dogs falling on harder times and the Giants conducting business as usual, the door appears open for someone like the Commanders to take over.

Commanders’ Current Odds to Win the NFC East

The latest odds do not give the Commanders much chance, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. They had the longest odds in the division at the start of the 2020 season (+2200) - the last time the Commanders won the NFC East. Heading into Week 4 that season, they were still pretty long (+1400).

They didn't become the betting favorite until Week 15. So, why should bettors buy Washington at +700 to win the NFC East now?

Because the Commanders are the only team in the division on the rise. Jayden Daniels has improved every week, culminating in his masterful performance on MNF this week. As he is just three weeks into his rookie NFL season, there is a good chance he and the offense continue to improve.

They still need a lot of work on the defensive side of the ball. With a solid defensive mind like Dan Quinn as their head coach, it would not be shocking to see this unit improve exponentially each week as it continues to learn and perfect his system.

Bottom Line

Am I saying the Washington Commanders will win the NFC East? Of course not. Dallas and Philadelphia could turn things around, and the Commanders could experience a fall from grace. But, at the moment, with their odds at +700, they are worth taking a flier on.