NFL Futures: Washington Football Team to Make the Playoffs? (2021)
The Washington Football Team is turning to first-year quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to improve its 2020 NFC East winning campaign. Fitzpatrick has weapons to work with, head coach Ron Rivera has reached a Super Bowl, and Washingtonâs defensive line is one of the most ferocious in the NFL.
So what could go wrong?
Check out our consensus odds for all teams to make or miss the playoffs >>
Washington Football Team to make the playoffs?
Even the second-year seven-team playoff rule can help Washington this season. First, because no NFC East team has won back-to-back division crowns since the Philadelphia Eagles won four straight from 2001-04. Second, several NFC teams should be better than the Football Team.
Donât take my word for it. Listen to the oddsmakers. DraftKings lists the Dallas Cowboys as the favorite to win the NFC East and five additional NFC teams to have a higher win total than Washingtonâs 8.5-win forecast. In fact, DraftKings and the rest of the oddsmakers are generous in projecting Washington to have roughly 8 to 9 wins because the Football Team is only favored in three of their 17 games.
Furthermore, DraftKings projects the Minnesota Vikings to win 8.5 games. But, their Over is âjuicedâ to (-170) while the Football Teamâs Over is even-money. This tells us DraftKings either prefers Minnesotaâs Over and is willing to offer the Under (+145) at a plus-money payout. Or DraftKings has liability on Minnesotaâs Over because of âsharpâ money.
Either way, the most profitable spots in sports betting are when you align with both the House and âwiseguys.â Not only that, but I made a pretty compelling case already as to why the Minnesota Vikings are going to make the playoffs this season on this very website last week.
Enough about the NFC field and market. Letâs further discuss the Washington Football Teamâs situation. Since the NFL is a âquarterback driving league,â how about we start with Fitzpatrick. Here are all the teams âFitzmagicâ has led to the postseason in his 17 previous seasons: None.
For his career, Fitzpatrick is 27 games below .500 while playing for eight different teams and has only won more than seven games once (his 2015 New York Jets were 10-6). Also, thereâs maybe one comparison of an NFL quarterback going from journeyman/fringe starter to franchise guy. Thatâd be Rich Gannon from the 1999-2002 Oakland Raiders. So, itâd be fairly unprecedented for Fitzpatrick to come to his ninth team and do something heâs never done before.
According to Warren Sharp, Washington has the second-most difficult schedule in the NFC, the third-worst net rest advantage, and the lowest prep time rank. Moreover, Washington has to play three games on the second week of back-to-back road games.
Another way the NFL schedule-makers punished Washington was pitting them in three games against opponents with extra prep who played Thursday Night Football the previous week (according to the Deep Dive Podcast). In addition, the Football Teamâs bye week is negated since their opponent the following week is also has a bye. Oh, and who is Washingtonâs opponent the week of their negated bye? Itâs none other than the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Finally, Iâm not an analytics guy or some football whiz. Iâm a handicapper, so Iâm studying the NFL previews from the Warren Sharps and Football Outsiders of the world. One of the most respected sources of football data on the internet is Football Outsiders, and they give the 2021 Washington Football Team a 39.4% chance to make the postseason.
Well, the implied win probability of the Football Teamâs âNo, to make the playoffsâ (-140) is 58.3%. So, one of the most respected football nerds on the internet says were are getting a good price on our bet that Washington misses the playoffs.
Pick: Washington to miss the playoffs (-140)
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether youâre new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section â including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â or head to more advanced sports betting strategy â like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â to learn more.
Geoff Clark is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Geoff, check out his archive and follow him @Geoffery_Clark.