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NFL: Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Sports Betting Guide

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For the second straight season, the Bears and Packers face off in Week 1. Last season, Aaron Rodgers was carted off the field before re-entering the game and leading an unbelievable comeback that saw the Packers emerge with the 24-23 victory. This year, the opening game is in Chicago, and the Bears find themselves the reigning kings of the NFC North.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The Bears opened at -4 and the over/under opened at 44.5. The numbers have moved very slightly in favor of the over and the Packers.
  • Current Line: Chicago -3
  • O/U: 46.5
  • Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
  • Start Time: 8:20 pm ET
  • Television: NBC
  • Last Meeting: December 16, 2018 – Chicago defeated Green Bay 24-17 at Soldier Field

Check out all of our consensus NFL odds for Week 1 >>

Overview

Anytime the Packers fail to make some noise in the playoffs, the season is considered a bust, but 2018 was an entirely different story. Green Bay finished 6-9-1 in an incredibly disappointing season that saw Aaron Rodgers fight through an early-season injury to start all 16 games. Mike McCarthy was fired at the end of the season, and Matt LaFleur has replaced him. The truth is it looked like the Packers gave up at the end of last season, playing to overtime against the New York Jets in Week 16 before falling 31-0 at home to the lowly Lions. There are many who believe the coaching change is just what the doctor ordered, and the Packers will find themselves atop the North this season.

For the Bears, 2018 was a completely different story. Projected to finish fourth in the NFC North, they were the shock of the NFL, managing to go 12-4 overall and an NFL best 12-5 ATS. They saw their Super Bowl hopes dashed when Cody Parkey missed a game-winning field goal in the NFC Wild Card Round. Their defense was astounding, giving up 20+ points only six times all year. The defense finished the season third in total yards allowed per game and first in rushing yards allowed per game at 80. This year, the Bears won’t be surprising anyone, as the entire league is on notice for them. Mitchell Trubisky is back at quarterback and the offense has added rookie David Montgomery and veteran Mike Davis to pair in the backfield with dynamo Tarik Cohen.

Trends

  • In their last 10 meetings, Green Bay is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS.
  • In their last 11 games, Chicago is 9-2 ATS and SU.
  • Green Bay is 1-9 SU in their last 10 road games, but 8-1 SU in their last nine road games in Chicago.
  • The total has gone under in Chicago’s last five games.
  • The total has gone over in four of the last five games between the teams.
  • Chicago is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against NFC North opponents.
  • Chicago was an NFL best 12-5 ATS in 2018.

Prop Bets

1st Half Packers +2.5
I love this bet. Aaron Rodgers is out to prove a point this season. It was well known that he and McCarthy didn’t see eye to eye, and now with McCarthy gone, Rodgers wants to show everyone this is his team. I expect him to throw all over the Bears early. While Chicago could certainly win this game, I believe they would have to make a comeback to do so.

Bottom Line

Chicago was the story of the season last year. They were great against the spread, won a very competitive division despite having the worst odds to do so at the beginning of the year, and field one of the best defenses in the NFL. Matt Nagy had his guys playing inspired football last year, but it’s a lot easier to surprise people than it is to play when there is a target on your back. Aaron Rodgers was beaten up for most of 2018 and it showed. But this season, he comes in healthy and with a new head coach. I expect the Packers to repeat last year’s Week 1 victory and start the revenge tour. But if last year wasn’t a fluke for the Bears, maybe you’ll be more comfortable taking the Packers +3. Either way, my money is on the Pack.

Pick: Packers +3

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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.