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Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Sports Betting Guide

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In one of the marquee matchups in a week one filled with them, the Kansas City Chiefs will do battle with the Jacksonville Jaguars. These two teams faced off last season at Arrowhead with the Chiefs winning 30-14. Both Jacksonville and Kansas City have made some significant roster changes over the offseason. Both teams will have a much different look and feel than the teams we saw on the field during the 2018 meeting.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The Chiefs opened as 4.5 point favorites and now sit at -3. The over/under total opened at 52.5, a total the early bettors thought was too high for a game played in Jacksonville, and has dropped to 51.5.
  • Current Line: Chiefs -3
  • O/U: 51.5
  • Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, September 8th
  • Last Meeting: Kansas City defeated Jacksonville 30-14 – October 7th, 2018

Check out all of our consensus NFL odds for Week 1 >>

Overview

Fresh off a controversial loss to the New England Patriots in the 2018 AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs efforts to run the table during the 2019 season begins in Jacksonville. The Chiefs switched to a 4-3 defense this offseason, letting go of defensive cornerstones Dee Ford, Eric Berry and Justin Houston in the process. In to replace them are stars Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu, first-round pick Juan Thornhill, and veterans Emmanuel Ogbah and Alex Okafor. The Chiefs also brought in some fresh talent on offense. They replaced Chris Conley with Mecole Hardman and upgraded their backfield by adding LeSean McCoy and rookie Darwin Thompson. A team with Super Bowl aspirations, the Kansas City Chiefs went 12-4 in 2018 and claimed first seed in the AFC. They will be looking to match or better their record this season as they gear up for an inevitable postseason run. One of the very best teams in the league, the Chiefs scored an amazing 35.31 points per game last season. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars spent considerable resources in an effort to upgrade their offense this offseason. They made the controversial signing of Nick Foles and upgraded a quarterback situation that had held a talented team back for years. They added Chris Conley in free agency and added offensive lineman Jawaan Taylor, tight end Josh Oliver, running back Ryquell Armstead and quarterback Gardner Minshew in the 2019 NFL Draft. They recently signed UDFA Devine Ozigbo to the main roster and signed Hard Knocks star Keelan Doss to the practice squad. The Jaguars remain one the AFC’s best but were dealt a major blow when the surprising news that Telvin Smith would be temporarily retiring from football came down the pipe. They did add Josh Allen in the first round after he slipped to them at seventh overall but did nothing of note to address a secondary that lost safeties Barry Church and Tashaun Gipson this offseason. Rookie Quincy Williams will be replacing Telvin Smith at weakside linebacker. In house replacements, Ronnie Harrison and Jarrod Wilson will be manning the safety positions. Outside of the quarterback position, the Jaguars were one of the very best teams in the league in 2018. They went a disappointing 5-11 despite allowing just 19.6 points per game and a league-best 13.9 points per game at home. The Jaguars offense is expected to take a major step forward with Nick Foles under center.

Trends

  • Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against Jacksonville.
  • The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
  • Kansas City is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 contests against the AFC.
  • Kansas City is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road contests.
  • Kansas City is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine contests.
  • Jacksonville is 2-5-2 ATS in their last nine contests against the AFC.
  • Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home contests. 
  • Jacksonville is 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 contests overall. 
  • Over is 5-0 in Kansas City’s last five road contests. 
  • Over is 6-2 in Kansas City’s last eight contests. 
  • Under is 5-0 in Jacksonville’s last five home contests. 
  • Under is 4-1 in the Jaguars last five contests. 

Prop Bets
1st Half Kansas City -2.5 (-110)

Kansas City first half at -2.5 points appears to be a solid value. Based on the current full game line one would hope for a lower spread, but the Vegas oddsmakers know what they are doing. The key here is that the spread is still under a field goal. Kansas City will have a much easier time with a Jacksonville defense that they got to see first-hand last season. Expect the Chiefs to jump out to an early lead. 1st half may actually be the safer line as compared to the full game. 

Bottom Line 

Kansas City is the better team in this contest. They have the ATS trends on their side and are playing with a spread that has dropped from -4.5 to -3. A Jaguars outright win cannot be ruled out, but if Kansas City wins this contest as projected, they will likely do so by more than a field goal. Any time you get a spread of three points or less on the Chiefs it has to be considered a potential value. The Jaguars defense lost some pieces over the offseason and will not be the same dominant force they once were. They are still incredibly strong on the defensive line and at cornerback but will have a tough time defending all of the Chiefs explosive weapons. 

Pick: Chiefs -3 (-110)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.