NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 11
Weâve reached the point in the NFL season where the betting market has had ten weeks of play to formulate opinions and ratings of each team. With this increased knowledge, not only are oddsmakersâ lines often more defined than before, but sharp bettors often have much stronger opinions on their plays of choice. This sentiment is reflected in the line movement for Week 11. For the first time all season, four games on the same slate have shifted through zero and now see the team that opened as the underdog laying points.
Some lines have also been impacted by injuries, including the Lions-Panthers game, which is currently off the board with Detroit quarterback Matthew Staffordâs status in jeopardy. Read on for a full snapshot of the Week 11 NFL lines, both opening and current, along with further analysis of some of the biggest moves weâve seen thus far.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Line Movement Analysis for Week 11
Refer to the side-by-side comparison of consensus opening lines and current odds for all Week 11 games in the table below. For games that have experienced especially significant or interesting movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.
Game | Opening Lines | Current Odds |
Cardinals at Seahawks | Seahawks -5.5; O/U 56.5 | Seahawks -3; O/U 57 |
Bengals at Washington | Bengals -1; O/U 46 | Washington -1; O/U 46.5 |
Steelers at Jaguars | Steelers -9.5; O/U 46 | Steelers -10; O/U 46.5 |
Lions at Panthers | Panthers -2.5 | Panthers -3 |
Titans at Ravens | Ravens -6.5; O/U 47 | Ravens -6; O/U 48.5 |
Eagles at Browns | Browns -2; O/U 45.5 | Browns -3.5; O/U 47.5 |
Patriots at Texans | Texans -2.5; O/U 47 | Patriots -1; O/U 49 |
Falcons at Saints | Saints -7; O/U 51 | Saints -4.5; O/U 50.5 |
Dolphins at Broncos | Broncos -1; O/U 44.5 | Dolphins -3; O/U 45 |
Jets at Chargers | Chargers -9; O/U 47 | Chargers -9.5; O/U 46.5 |
Packers at Colts | Packers -2.5; O/U 49 | Colts -1; O/U 51 |
Cowboys at Vikings | Vikings -9.5; O/U 47 | Vikings -7; O/U 48.5 |
Chiefs at Raiders | Chiefs -7; O/U 55 | Chiefs -7.5; O/U 56.5 |
Rams at Buccaneers | Buccaneers -3; O/U 48.5 | Buccaneers -4; O/U 48.5 |
Week 11 Point Spread Movement Analysis
Odds courtesy of 888sport
Patriots at Texans
NE
|
-2
-110
|
o48
-110
|
-141
|
|
JOIN NOW |
HOU
|
+2
-110
|
u48
-110
|
+116
|
The Move: The opening spread of Texans (-2.5) shifting to Patriots (-2)
This game is a classic example of how recency bias can play a major role in dictating the movement of the NFL betting market. Everyone and their uncle were writing off the Patriots three weeks ago. While a narrow Monday night victory over the winless Jets may not have done much to change peopleâs minds, an impressive Sunday night triumph over the Ravens last week was proof that Bill Belichickâs team isnât dead just yet.
New Englandâs offense has found its identity in a heavy dose of run plays, something that the Texans havenât stopped all season. With Houston winless against teams not hailing from Jacksonville, it comes as no surprise that the market has adjusted to give the Patriots the nod as road favorites.
Falcons at Saints
ATL
|
+4.5
-110
|
o50
-110
|
+180
|
|
JOIN NOW |
NO
|
-4.5
-110
|
u50
-110
|
-230
|
The Move: The opening spread of Saints (-7) down to Saints (-4.5)
This weekâs big news out of New Orleans is the severe rib and lung injuries suffered by quarterback Drew Brees. Jameis Winston is expected to make his first start as a result, although the situation could lead to increased snaps for gadget quarterback Taysom Hill as well. Itâs reasonable for this line to move against the Saints, given the transfer of duties at the quarterback position alone, but bettors may forget that the Falcons have been playing much better of late. Their defense has generated a steady pass rush, and Atlanta will enter this divisional matchup fresh off a bye week. Thereâs a compelling argument in saying that the Falcons are better than their 3-6 record suggests.
Packers at Colts
GB
|
+2
-110
|
o51
-110
|
+107
|
|
JOIN NOW |
IND
|
-2
-110
|
u51
-110
|
-130
|
The Move: The opening spread from Packers (-2.5) to Colts (-2)
The Colts made a big statement last Thursday night with their road win over the Titans. Not only did it put Indianapolis in the driverâs seat of the AFC South race, but it also earned them a lot of overdue respect. As good as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have been this season, theyâll be in for a tough task as they try to work around Darius Leonard and his cohorts on the Indy defense. Green Bay also delivered a very lackluster performance against the lowly Jaguars last week. This could be added motivation behind the line move against them in this marquee matchup.
Week 11 Totals Movement Analysis
Odds courtesy of 888sport
Titans at Ravens
TEN
|
+6
-110
|
o48.5
-110
|
+215
|
|
---|---|---|---|---|
JOIN NOW |
BAL
|
-6
-110
|
u48.5
-110
|
-275
|
The Move: The opening total of 47 up to 48.5
The Ravens make this column for the second straight week thanks to the over/under line in their game ticking upward. Heavy rains in Foxborough prevented last weekâs game from going over, but the market is once again backing the offenses for this clash against the Titans. Tennessee has been shaky defensively all season and got carved up by Philip Rivers last Thursday. Meanwhile, the Ravens are contending with injuries to a pair of key stalwarts along their defensive front in Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams. If Baltimore couldnât contain New Englandâs rushing attack, imagine what Derrick Henry could do to them on Sunday.
Find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 9 of the NFL >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether youâre new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section â including How to Make an Online Sports Bet â or head to more advanced strategy â like How to Set and Maintain Your Sports Betting Budget â to learn more.
Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.