NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 11

We’ve reached the point in the NFL season where the betting market has had ten weeks of play to formulate opinions and ratings of each team. With this increased knowledge, not only are oddsmakers’ lines often more defined than before, but sharp bettors often have much stronger opinions on their plays of choice. This sentiment is reflected in the line movement for Week 11. For the first time all season, four games on the same slate have shifted through zero and now see the team that opened as the underdog laying points.

Some lines have also been impacted by injuries, including the Lions-Panthers game, which is currently off the board with Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford’s status in jeopardy. Read on for a full snapshot of the Week 11 NFL lines, both opening and current, along with further analysis of some of the biggest moves we’ve seen thus far.

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Line Movement Analysis for Week 11

Refer to the side-by-side comparison of consensus opening lines and current odds for all Week 11 games in the table below. For games that have experienced especially significant or interesting movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.

Game Opening Lines Current Odds
Cardinals at Seahawks Seahawks -5.5; O/U 56.5 Seahawks -3; O/U 57
Bengals at Washington Bengals -1; O/U 46 Washington -1; O/U 46.5
Steelers at Jaguars Steelers -9.5; O/U 46 Steelers -10; O/U 46.5
Lions at Panthers Panthers -2.5 Panthers -3
Titans at Ravens Ravens -6.5; O/U 47 Ravens -6; O/U 48.5
Eagles at Browns Browns -2; O/U 45.5 Browns -3.5; O/U 47.5
Patriots at Texans Texans -2.5; O/U 47 Patriots -1; O/U 49
Falcons at Saints Saints -7; O/U 51 Saints -4.5; O/U 50.5
Dolphins at Broncos Broncos -1; O/U 44.5 Dolphins -3; O/U 45
Jets at Chargers Chargers -9; O/U 47 Chargers -9.5; O/U 46.5
Packers at Colts Packers -2.5; O/U 49 Colts -1; O/U 51
Cowboys at Vikings Vikings -9.5; O/U 47 Vikings -7; O/U 48.5
Chiefs at Raiders Chiefs -7; O/U 55 Chiefs -7.5; O/U 56.5
Rams at Buccaneers Buccaneers -3; O/U 48.5 Buccaneers -4; O/U 48.5

Week 11 Point Spread Movement Analysis

Odds courtesy of 888sport

Patriots at Texans

-2
-110
o48
-110
-141
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+2
-110
u48
-110
+116

The Move: The opening spread of Texans (-2.5) shifting to Patriots (-2)

This game is a classic example of how recency bias can play a major role in dictating the movement of the NFL betting market. Everyone and their uncle were writing off the Patriots three weeks ago. While a narrow Monday night victory over the winless Jets may not have done much to change people’s minds, an impressive Sunday night triumph over the Ravens last week was proof that Bill Belichick’s team isn’t dead just yet.

New England’s offense has found its identity in a heavy dose of run plays, something that the Texans haven’t stopped all season. With Houston winless against teams not hailing from Jacksonville, it comes as no surprise that the market has adjusted to give the Patriots the nod as road favorites.

Falcons at Saints

+4.5
-110
o50
-110
+180
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-4.5
-110
u50
-110
-230

The Move: The opening spread of Saints (-7) down to Saints (-4.5)

This week’s big news out of New Orleans is the severe rib and lung injuries suffered by quarterback Drew Brees. Jameis Winston is expected to make his first start as a result, although the situation could lead to increased snaps for gadget quarterback Taysom Hill as well. It’s reasonable for this line to move against the Saints, given the transfer of duties at the quarterback position alone, but bettors may forget that the Falcons have been playing much better of late. Their defense has generated a steady pass rush, and Atlanta will enter this divisional matchup fresh off a bye week. There’s a compelling argument in saying that the Falcons are better than their 3-6 record suggests.

Packers at Colts

+2
-110
o51
-110
+107
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-2
-110
u51
-110
-130

The Move: The opening spread from Packers (-2.5) to Colts (-2)

The Colts made a big statement last Thursday night with their road win over the Titans. Not only did it put Indianapolis in the driver’s seat of the AFC South race, but it also earned them a lot of overdue respect. As good as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have been this season, they’ll be in for a tough task as they try to work around Darius Leonard and his cohorts on the Indy defense. Green Bay also delivered a very lackluster performance against the lowly Jaguars last week. This could be added motivation behind the line move against them in this marquee matchup.

Week 11 Totals Movement Analysis

Odds courtesy of 888sport

Titans at Ravens

+6
-110
o48.5
-110
+215
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-6
-110
u48.5
-110
-275

The Move: The opening total of 47 up to 48.5

The Ravens make this column for the second straight week thanks to the over/under line in their game ticking upward. Heavy rains in Foxborough prevented last week’s game from going over, but the market is once again backing the offenses for this clash against the Titans. Tennessee has been shaky defensively all season and got carved up by Philip Rivers last Thursday. Meanwhile, the Ravens are contending with injuries to a pair of key stalwarts along their defensive front in Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams. If Baltimore couldn’t contain New England’s rushing attack, imagine what Derrick Henry could do to them on Sunday.

Find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 9 of the NFL >>


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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.