NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 17 (2020)
Happy New Year everyone! We have one week of regular-season NFL action left to handicap as the 2020 season comes to a close. Week 17 always presents bettors with several interesting nuances. Some teams need to pick up one final win to secure a postseason berth. Others are battling for playoff seeding. Some are already locked into their playoff seed and resting a number of key contributors in the season finale.
As one might expect, all of these factors can lead to some very interesting shifts in the betting market. NFL bettors are advised to monitor injuries, inactive players, and all news updates right up until kickoff. When handicapping Week 17 games, my advice is to retain the same process you’ve used throughout the season and adjust accordingly for any quirks that arise. As always, line moves can help us to gauge how the market views teams and personnel adjustments. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest line shifts thus far as the weekend approaches.
Refer to the side-by-side comparison of consensus opening lines and current odds for all Week 17 games in the table below. For games that have experienced especially significant or interesting movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.
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Line Movement Analysis for Week 17
Odds courtesy of FOXBet.
Week 17 Point Spread Movement Analysis
Steelers at Browns
The Move: Browns (-7) up to Browns (-10)
This game is the classic example of how injuries and/or missing players can drastically swing a Week 17 betting line. With only the top seed in each conference getting a first-round bye this year, the Steelers really have nothing to play for after wrapping up the AFC North last week. Mike Tomlin has elected to sit quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, and likely several other starters this week as well.
While the game might be meaningless for Pittsburgh, the Browns are in must-win mode if they hope to make the playoffs at all. Put the two things together, and you have a surging line move in favor of Cleveland.
Falcons at Buccaneers
The Move: Buccaneers (-4) up to Buccaneers (-7)
At first glance, this game might appear to carry very little incentive for the Buccaneers as it relates to the NFC playoff picture. Tampa Bay has already clinched a postseason berth and cannot win the NFC South. They are locked into playing on Wild Card Weekend, but seeding does in fact matter here.
If the Bucs win this Week 17 game against the Falcons, that will ensure they will draw a matchup against the NFC East winner in the Wild Card Round as the No. 5 seed. It’s well-documented how bad the NFC East is, and the division winner is guaranteed to have a losing record. Tampa Bay would undoubtedly prefer an NFC East opponent to the Saints or Seahawks. Be careful though. The Falcons almost beat the Chiefs and this same Bucs team as sizable underdogs in each of the last two weeks.
Saints at Panthers
The Move: Saints (-4) up to Saints (-7)
The Saints still have an outside shot at the NFC’s top seed, but they’ll need Packers and Seahawks losses in addition to claiming a Week 17 victory of their own. Is the incentive to win worthy of a full three-point line move? Probably not. As it is though, the market has shot up from the opening number all the way to the point where New Orleans is laying a full touchdown. At this point, buying back on the underdog Panthers is far more appealing.
Washington at Eagles
The Move: Eagles (-1) to Washington (-2)
Washington is a win in Sunday night’s season finale away from reaching the postseason. The team waived Dwayne Haskins earlier this week, and all signs point to veteran Alex Smith being ready to go after missing the last two games with a calf injury. With the Eagles eliminated from the playoffs and having a lengthy injury report, it’s no surprise to see this line shift in favor of the Football Team. Having to clinch a division title on the road isn’t an ideal situation, but at least Washington won’t have to contend with any rabid Eagles fans.
Week 17 Totals Movement Analysis
Cowboys at Giants
The Move: Opening total of 47 down to 44.5
The total for the other Week 17 NFC East battle has plummeted, and for good reason given the recent state of the Giants’ offense. New York has only scored 26 points in its last three games combined. Nothing would signify a sudden change of form, even with a chance to win the division. The Cowboys are giving up 30 points per game on the season but have played better defensively down the stretch. Both defenses figure to show up in this one, making the Under the only possible play here.
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.