NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 2
NFL bettors can learn a lot from the betting market. This education comes primarily through line movement on games. Changes to the odds, point spread, or total for a game indicate that one side has taken a significant amount of money from professional, or “sharp†bettors. In the name of both balancing their accounts and attempting to align with the “sharp side†of the game, sportsbooks react by adjusting their lines to try and attract money on the opposite side.
View consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 2 of the NFL >>
Line Movement Analysis for Week 2
We have seen several of the lines for Week 2 of the NFL season move substantially over the course of the week. You might be thinking to yourself that some moves make no sense based on what we saw on the field from teams in Week 1. But proceed with caution when making these judgments.
The NFL is the definition of a week-to-week league, and there is no bigger overreaction Monday than the one immediately following the first Sunday of the season. But while the rest of the NFL world is busy overreacting, sharp bettors and bookmakers are probably some of the most level-headed analysts out there. With this in mind, line movement is perhaps one of the most accurate methods of assessing NFL matchups.
Refer to the side by side comparison of the opening lines and current odds for all Week 2 games in the table below. For games that saw especially significant movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
| Game | Opening Lines | Current Odds |
| Bengals at Browns | Browns -6.5; O/U 45.5 | Browns -6; O/U 43.5 |
| 49ers at Jets | 49ers -6.5; O/U 43.5 | 49ers -7; O/U 42.5 |
| Bills at Dolphins | Bills -4; O/U 42.5 | Bills -5.5; O/U 41 |
| Lions at Packers | Packers -5.5; O/U 46 | Packers -6; O/U 49.5 |
| Vikings at Colts | Colts -3; O/U 46 | Colts -3; O/U 48 |
| Panthers at Buccaneers | Buccaneers -8; O/U 48.5 | Buccaneers -9.5; O/U 48.5 |
| Rams at Eagles | Eagles -2.5; O/U 48.5 | Rams -1; O/U 45.5 |
| Jaguars at Titans | Titans -10.5; O/U 42.5 | Titans -9; O/U 42 |
| Falcons at Cowboys | Cowboys -7; O/U 50.5 | Cowboys -4.5; O/U 53 |
| Broncos at Steelers | Steelers -6.5; O/U 43 | Steelers -7.5; O/U 41.5 |
| Giants at Bears | Bears -5.5; O/U 43 | Bears -5.5; O/U 42.5 |
| Washington at Cardinals | Cardinals -6.5; O/U 46 | Cardinals -6.5; O/U 46.5 |
| Chiefs at Chargers | Chiefs -7; O/U 50.5 | Chiefs -8.5; O/U 47.5 |
| Ravens at Texans | Ravens -6.5; O/U 53.5 | Ravens -7; O/U 52 |
| Patriots at Seahawks | Seahawks -3.5; O/U 44.5 | Seahawks -4; O/U 45 |
| Saints at Raiders | Saints -5.5; O/U 50.5 | Saints -6; O/U 50.5 |
Week 2 Point Spread Movement Analysis
Rams at Eagles
Sunday’s matchup between the Rams and Eagles is significant from a line movement perspective in that it is the only contest on the Week 2 slate that has seen a shift in which team is favored. After opening as narrow 2-point underdogs, the Rams have attracted the favor of the betting market and are now 1-point favorites.
There are a few factors that can be considered when diagnosing why the Rams have drawn heavy action. For starters, the Eagles didn’t exactly have an inspiring Week 1 performance, blowing a 17-0 lead to the Washington Football Team and losing outright. Philadelphia is also dealing with a rash of injuries across the roster, particularly along the offensive and defensive lines.
Looking at the Rams side of the equation, the team is coming off a Week 1 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Los Angeles was a favorite play of many sharps in Week 1 as a slim underdog, so it makes sense that they are once again seeing the line move in their favor. While they are no longer catching points, a 1-point spread is essentially a pick’em. The Rams can still be backed if you like them to win the game outright.
Jaguars at Titans
The Titans opened as double-digit home favorites for this AFC South clash. Interestingly enough, the Jaguars have drawn enough action to move the line a full point and a half in their favor. While 10 is not the most significant number in NFL betting, it is pretty substantial given that it is the sum of a touchdown and field goal.
Minshew Mania was arguably the biggest surprise of Week 1, as Jacksonville not only covered against the heavily favored Indianapolis Colts but won outright. It makes sense that their spread against the Titans, a team that closed with slightly longer odds to win the AFC South than Indianapolis, would be bet down to more similarly resemble the 8 points the Jaguars were catching last week.
The big question, of course, is whether or not Jacksonville can sustain their surprising Week 1 success. While Gardner Minshew and the offense should be able to move the ball, the defense will be up against it in this matchup. The Colts averaged 4.0 yards per carry running the football last week but only did so 22 times. Running is obviously something the Titans love to do. Derrick Henry could be in for a monster game.
Falcons at Cowboys
Sharp bettors are heavily against the Cowboys for the second straight week. After opening as a full touchdown favorite, Dallas has seen the line move a full 2.5 points against them. The Falcons are now only getting 4.5 points in their first road matchup of the season.
It was really the same familiar story for Atlanta in Week 1. The offense moved the ball all afternoon, but the defense failed to step up. While the task of stopping the loaded Cowboys’ offensive attack will be another tall one for the Falcons’ D, the good news is that Matt Ryan and Co. should once again thrive. The Cowboys secondary is not great, and the run defense suffered a major loss when linebacker Leighton Vander Esch sustained a broken collarbone.
It’s worth noting that the betting market also smells a shootout, betting the opening total up a full 2.5 points. At 53, it is the highest total on the board for Week 2. For all the hype the Cowboys offense has garnered in the offseason, the Falcons are just as talented, if not more. The opening point spread was simply too high, and the sharps have responded accordingly by gobbling it up.
Week 2 Totals Movement Analysis
Lions at Packers
The Lions and Packers will each play their second straight NFC North divisional game to open the 2020 season when they meet Sunday at Lambeau Field. The over/under for the game opened at 46 and has been bet up 3.5 points to now sit at 49.5.
If Week 1 was any indication, this line move in favor of the over is fully justified. Aaron Rodgers was phenomenal in Green Bay’s season-opening win, torching the inexperienced secondary of the Minnesota Vikings all game long. The Packers defense did their part in promoting over bets for this week’s game as well, surrendering 34 points, 24 of which came in the fourth quarter.
For Detroit, Matthew Stafford looked terrific in Week 1, even without his top wideout Kenny Golladay. After only allowing a pair of field goals through the first three quarters, Matt Patricia’s defense faltered and gave up 21 fourth-quarter points. In a nutshell, Sunday’s matchup features two savvy quarterbacks with the opportunity to take advantage of, shall we say, “suspect†defenses. The action on the over is warranted, and it might even still be worth a look at the current line.
Chiefs at Chargers
Despite the high-powered Chiefs offense, the under has been the play of choice on the betting market for the defending Super Bowl champs’ Week 2 showdown against the Chargers. The over/under for the game opened at 50.5 and has been bet down a full 3 points to currently rest at 47.5.
The line move mirrors that of last week’s Chiefs-Texans season opener. That line was bet down, and while the game wound up going over the final total, it still finished under the opening total. Wise bettors have to anticipate the Chiefs getting theirs in this game. For me, this line move is predicated more on opinions of the Chargers.
While L.A.’s offense probably isn’t as bad as it looked last week in a game that saw just 29 total points, the Chiefs defense is also a step up in class from Cincinnati’s. Assuming the Chargers can remain competitive with the spread only Chiefs -7, a total of 47.5 would project a 27-21 game (or somewhere in that ballpark). Asking for much more from the Chargers offense certainly seems risky.
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.