NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 4
NFL bettors can learn a lot from the betting market. This education comes primarily through line movement on games. Changes to the odds, point spread, or total for a game indicate that one side has taken a significant amount of money from professional, or "sharp" bettors. In the name of both balancing their accounts and attempting to align with the "sharp side" of the game, sportsbooks react by adjusting their lines to try and attract money on the opposite side.
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Line Movement Analysis for Week 4
Week 3 saw three of the games with significant line movement featured in this article finish with results that supported the moves. NFL bettors continue to get a better insight into every team with each passing game played. Of course, it is important to remember that the NFL is a week-to-week league and that no single result for a given team guarantees a similar outcome the following Sunday. There has been line movement occurring all across the Week 4 slate. As always, it's up to you as the handicapper to determine how much of it has been warranted and how much is an overreaction.
Refer to the side by side comparison of the opening lines and current odds for all Week 2 games in the table below. For games that saw especially significant movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.
| Game | Opening Lines | Current Odds |
| Broncos at Jets | Broncos -2; O/U 40 | Jets -1; O/U 40.5 |
| Steelers at Titans | Titans -2.5; O/U 47.5 | N/A (Game Postponed) |
| Vikings at Texans | Texans -3; O/U 52 | Texans -5; O/U 54.5 |
| Saints at Lions | Saints -5.5; O/U 56 | Saints -4; O/U 54 |
| Browns at Cowboys | Cowboys -5.5; O/U 55 | Cowboys -5; O/U 56 |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Bengals -3; O/U 44.5 | Bengals -3; O/U 49 |
| Colts at Bears | Colts -1; O/U 45 | Colts -2.5; O/U 43 |
| Seahawks at Dolphins | Seahawks -7; O/U 55 | Seahawks -6; O/U 53 |
| Chargers at Buccaneers | Buccaneers -5; O/U 45.5 | Buccaneers -7; O/U 43.5 |
| Ravens at Washington | Ravens -13; O/U 47 | Ravens -13; O/U 45 |
| Cardinals at Panthers | Cardinals -4; O/U 51 | Cardinals -3; O/U 51 |
| Giants at Rams | Rams -10; O/U 48 | Rams -13; O/U 47.5 |
| Bills at Raiders | Bills -1.5; O/U 49.5 | Bills -3; O/U 53 |
| Patriots at Chiefs | Chiefs -7.5; O/U 54 | Chiefs -6.5; O/U 53 |
| Eagles at 49ers | 49ers -5.5; O/U 42.5 | 49ers -7; O/U 46 |
| Falcons at Packers | Packers -6; O/U 58 | Packers -7; O/U 57 |
Week 4 Point Spread Movement Analysis
Odds Courtesy of FOXBet Sportsbook
Vikings at Texans
Once again, we see significant line movement in favor of the winless Houston Texans. Despite dropping their third straight game to open the season last week and failing to cover the spread against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston has once again caught the eye of several sharp bettors. The Texans opened as 3-point favorites for their home game against the Minnesota Vikings. The line has moved a full two points, with Houston now favored by 5.
Both teams will be looking to get off the schneid and secure their first victory of the season on Sunday. After looking lifeless in their first two games, Minnesota put up a fight against the unbeaten Tennessee Titans in Week 3 and nearly pulled out a home win. Minnesota's defense has been very unstable and thanks to various injuries and young players, that doesn't look to be changing anytime soon. Kirk Cousins connected with Justin Jefferson throughout last week's game and the Vikings will need that tandem to do big things once again if they want any shot of covering.
The Texans have run the gauntlet to open the season with their first three opponents (Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh steelers) arguably being the three best teams in the AFC. Deshaun Watson and his arsenal of receiver targets have a tremendous opportunity this week facing an undermanned Minnesota secondary. If Houston's offensive line can hold up in pass protection and do enough in the ground game to get David Johnson going, the Texans should be in cruise control. They may be 0-3, but Houston's tough schedule over the first three weeks and their talent advantages in this matchup have once again led to line moves in their favor.
Chargers at Buccaneers
The Chargers are coming off of a disappointing home loss to the Carolina Panthers last week. They now have to travel east and take on the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The spread opened with the Bucs as 5-point favorites. Tampa Bay has taken significant sharp money and the line is now a full touchdown as the weekend approaches.
For as sound as the Buccaneers' QB situation is, the Chargers’ is just as much up in the air. Week 3 saw Tyrod Taylor miss his second straight game as a result of the punctured lung he sustained when receiving a pain injection prior to LA's game in Week 2. Rookie Justin Herbert wasn't awful last week, but The Chargers' inability to establish a run game (against one of the NFL's worst run defenses at that) and failure to finish off drives was concerning. The offensive line will need to be much better this week, no matter who is under center.
Tampa Bay handled the Denver Broncos with ease last week, another team battling injuries at the quarterback position. The Bucs have been lights out on defense through the first three games, ranking second in overall adjusted efficiency according to Football Outsiders. Los Angeles figures to be up against it in trying to establish any sort of consistent offensive attack. The biggest qualm with the line movement is that a low total of 43.5 makes a full touchdown spread a relatively tall task to cover. Either these two teams really are really light-years apart, or this spread may actually be over-inflated at this point.
Giants at Rams
A popular play by many sharp bettors in what appeared to be a great spot last week, the Giants have seen the betting market go completely against them just one week later. After losing by 27 as narrow 3-point home dogs in Week 3, New York now finds themselves sitting as double-digit underdogs in their matchup with the Rams. Los Angeles opened as 10-point favorites. That line has moved up to 12.5 at FOXBet and has already reached an even 13 at various other books.
Despite facing an injury-depleted 49ers team, the Giants were outplayed from the gun last week. The offense mustered very little movement and just 9 points, while the defense was no match against a backup quarterback. This after New York's second half rally fell just short against the Chicago Bears the week prior. There really isn't much to hang your hat on as a Giants bettor this week. The Rams have been very impressive offensively through three weeks, and Aaron Donald should have a field day against the New York offensive line.
It took a half to get going, but Jared Goff lit up a Buffalo Bills defense last week that was supposed to be among the NFL's best this season. With the vast array of targets he has at his disposal, the Giants secondary will be overmatched. The key for the Rams is the run game, and Darrell Henderson is emerging as the primary ball-carrier after back-to-back impressive performances. Los Angeles will score in bunches, and the Giants’ only real hope of covering even this large a spread is via the backdoor.
Week 3 Totals Movement Analysis
Jaguars at Bengals
After opening at 44.5, the over/under line for Sunday's Jaguars-Bengals contest has been bet up in a big way. While consensus lines have the total set at 49, it has already climbed as high as 50 points at FOXBet.
At this point, it is safe to say that the value in betting this game over is long gone. Cincinnati's defense might be one of the most underrated units in the league. They rank 9th in the NFL in adjusted efficiency through three games (Football Outsiders) and have been particularly strong against the pass. On the flip side, the Jaguars are a top-10 adjusted run defense through three weeks while posing very little resistance to opposing passing attacks.
The one commonality that stands out between these two teams is poor offensive line play. Both Gardner Minshew and Joe Burrow have struggled to find time to throw. When they have time, each has shown an ability to put up points. With James Robinson emerging as a workhorse back, it’s conceivable that the Jaguars will look to play through him in this game. This in turn will keep the clock running. It's just hard to see much more than 24 points per side here. I'd be expecting some buyback on the under before Sunday's kickoff.
Bills at Raiders
The second-ever game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada should be a good one with the undefeated Buffalo Bills coming to town. The Raiders are once again home underdogs and have seen the spread move against them a bit throughout the week. The biggest line movement for this game has been the total. After opening 49.5, the over/under has climbed 3.5 points and now sits at 53.
We knew coming into the season that the Raiders’ defense would not be particularly good. What has been surprising in the first three weeks us how the Bills have also played very poorly on the defensive side of the ball. The struggles have been particularly noticeable against the run, and that could spell trouble against a Las Vegas offense that features one of the best backs in the league in Josh Jacobs. The health of the Raiders pass-catchers is something to watch. Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards were both non-participants in mid-week practices.
The play of Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense might be the biggest reason behind the climb in this game's total line. Allen has been prolific through the first three weeks. Having Stefon Diggs as his new top threat has clearly paid dividends in the passing game. Diggs has a chance to torch the Raiders secondary all on his own this week. What we have seen from both teams this year supports the movement to the over, with the current line of 53 potentially being the peak.
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.