NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 6 (2020)
Despite all of the obstacles and hurdles it has had to clear, the NFL continues to forge ahead with its 2020 season. Several scheduling changes have been made, but all 32 teams remain on pace to complete the 16-game regular-season schedule on time. Plus, who doesn’t love a little Tuesday Night Football along the way? As we turn the page on the NFL calendar to Week 6, it’s time to analyze the betting market line movement to find a few possible wagering ventures.
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Key Numbers and Line Movement
When it comes to betting on any sport, key numbers are very important. Each sport has its own set of numbers for both the point spread and totals that tend to crop up more commonly than others. In the NFL, the primary ATS key numbers are 3 (a field-goal margin), 7 (a touchdown-margin), and 10 (the sum of a field goal and touchdown). For over/under lines, the key numbers tend to be 37, 41, 44, 47, and 51, although it is much more fluid.
One interesting thing to note for the Week 6 card is that three games have been bet down to or all the way through an even pick’em from the opening line. While it certainly is notable for bettors to monitor a change in who’s favored in a game, remember that these moves often leave out the key number of 3. This can lead a large move around the number 0 to actually be somewhat insignificant for point spread betting. Examples of games on both sides of the spectrum are included in this week’s analysis.
Line Movement Analysis for Week 6
Refer to the side by side comparison of consensus opening lines and current odds for all Week 5 games in the table below. For games that saw especially significant movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.
| Game | Opening Lines | Current Odds |
| Browns at Steelers | Steelers -4; O/U 50.5 | Steelers -3; O/U 51 |
| Texans at Titans | Titans -3; O/U 55 | Titans -3; O/U 53 |
| Broncos at Patriots | Patriots -9.5; O/U 46.5 | Patriots -10; O/U 45.5 |
| Bears at Panthers | Panthers -2.5; O/U 43.5 | Panthers -2; O/U 45 |
| Ravens at Eagles | Ravens -7; O/U 47.5 | Ravens -7.5; O/U 47 |
| Washington at Giants | Giants -2.5; O/U 44.5 | Giants -3; O/U 43 |
| Falcons at Vikings | Vikings -3.5; O/U 57 | Vikings -4; O/U 54 |
| Lions at Jaguars | Lions -1.5; O/U 53 | Lions -3; O/U 55 |
| Bengals at Colts | Colts -7.5; O/U 45.5 | Colts -8; O/U 46.5 |
| Jets at Dolphins | Dolphins -9; O/U 50 | Dolphins -95.; O/U 47 |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Buccaneers -2.5; O/U 51.5 | Pick’em; O/U 55 |
| Rams at 49ers | 49ers -3; O/U 49 | Rams -3.5; O/U 51.5 |
| Chiefs at Bills | Chiefs -3.5; O/U 58 | Chiefs -3.5; O/U 57.5 |
| Cardinals at Cowboys | Cowboys -3; O/U 53 | Cardinals -2; O/U 55 |
Week 6 Point Spread Movement Analysis
Odds courtesy of FOXBet
Lions at Jaguars
Sunday’s battle between the Lions and Jaguars pits a pair of 1-win teams against each other. Both are in desperate need of a win to try and turn their 2020 fortunes around. After opening as 1.5-point favorites, the Lions have taken money to drive the line up to -3.5 at FOXBet.
The Lions come into this contest off of a bye week. Detroit is 1-3 on the season, but very easily could be 3-1. Matthew Stafford has been getting into a better groove since Kenny Golladay returned from injury. That tandem has the potential to feast against a porous Jacksonville secondary. The key for the Lions will be slowing down Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars’ offensive attack. A total of 55 projects points to be scored on both sides in this one.
The Jaguars have more than come back down to Earth after their season-opening upset win over the Indianapolis Colts. Their Week 5 showing against a previously winless Houston Texans team wasn’t pretty. With D.J. Chark continuing to battle injuries, Minshew could very well be without his most trusted weapon on Sunday. The Lions have been poor ATS (1-3) on the season, but the opening line of 1.5 was a poor indication of the talent disparity between these two teams.
Packers at Buccaneers
Sunday’s Packers-Buccaneers game will be nationally televised given that it is the only game in the 4:25 window. The line movement would suggest we are in for a good one. After the Buccaneers opened as 2.5-point favorites, the line was pushed through 0, climbing as high as the Packers being favored by 2 points. Tampa Bay has since taken more money and the game now sits as a pick’em at FOXBet.
The game is of course being billed as the battle of two all-time great quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Green Bay will be fresh off a bye and looking to remain unbeaten while the Bucs will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to the Chicago Bears last Thursday.
What’s striking about this game is that the line has never reached a full 3 points in either team’s favor. With 3 being such a critical number for betting on the NFL, one could argue that the back-and-forth nature of this line’s move might not loom as large as it appears. Ultimately, it points to this game being a pick’em according to the betting market. Depending on which side you like, the best approach may be to take the moneyline when plus-money is available.
Rams at 49ers
This week’s Sunday night game sees another point spread that has moved through 0, albeit in a much more significant fashion than the Packers-Buccaneers game. After opening as 3-point underdogs, the Rams are now 3.5-point favorites at FOXBet for their critical NFC West clash with the 49ers.
Sharp money drives the market, and in this case, the pros have been all over the Rams. Los Angeles continues to look impressive behind a rekindled running game, explosive passing attack, and star-studded defense. Ravaged by injuries in the early portion of the season, the 49ers limp into this contest off a blowout loss to the Miami Dolphins. That game could very well be creating some recency bias among bettors. Jimmy Garoppolo has to be better this week, and likely can’t be any worse.
Where this line move contrasts from the Packers-Bucs game is that the Rams have taken enough money to move the line all the way through 0 and over the key number of 3 in their direction. Given that the 49ers were laying a full 3 in their own right when the line opened, this movement is huge. San Francisco backers should pounce now as buyback is undoubtedly coming.
Week 6 Totals Movement Analysis
Falcons at Vikings
It’s interesting to see money come in on the under in a matchup between teams with superior offenses, but that’s just the case with Sunday’s Falcons-Vikings showdown. The over/under line opened at 57 and has taken enough money on the under to move it down to an even 54 at FOXBet.
If recent performance is any indication, the line movement is more than justified. After a frenetic pace to start the season, the Falcons’ offense has cooled considerably in each of their last two contests. Star wideout Julio Jones remains banged up and Matt Ryan hasn’t looked like himself. Of course, Atlanta’s defense is never doing under-bettors any favors it seems.
On the other side, the Vikings’ defense has actually played much better of late. They shut out Russell Wilson and the mighty Seattle Seahawks’ offense for a whole half in Week 5. This came a week after holding Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans in check. How Minnesota’s young cornerback tandem of Mike Hughes and Holton Hill handle the Falcons’ myriad of receiving weapons remains to be seen.
Jets at Dolphins
One of the uglier games of the Week 6 slate has perhaps unsurprisingly seen heavy sharp action on the under. Sunday’s contest between the Jets and Dolphins has seen an opening total of 50 move down to an even 47 at FOXBet.
An ugly offensive situation for New York just got uglier this week when the team released star running back Le’Veon Bell. Bell never meshed with coach Adam Gase, so the Jets opted to move on from the toxic relationship and contract situation. The move turns the reigns of the backfield over to Frank Gore just in time for his Miami homecoming game. Joe Flacco will again be the Jets’ starting quarterback. Look for Jamison Crowder to again be heavily involved.
The Dolphins got a heavy dose of FitzMagic in last week’s win over the 49ers. One would have to believe the bearded veteran is more than capable of repeating his heroics against a Jets defense that ranks 31st in adjusted efficiency against the pass (Football Outsiders). There is the added element of this being a division rivalry game, however, something that often lends itself to close games and low point totals. In accordance with those general rules, three of the last four in the Jets-Dolphins series have gone under.
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.