NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 3 (2023)

by Matt Barbato |
Sep 23, 2023

Sometimes, you just love the board. That’s been the case in Weeks 1 and 2, as this series has gotten off to a 5-1 start. However, the Cincinnati Bengals dampened the winning in Week 2 with their pitiful effort against Baltimore.

Turning our attention to Week 3, I must admit that this board has me feeling queasy. Many lines feel just right, while others I don’t feel comfortable with the popular sides. There were plenty of games I considered for our Week 3 Leave and much slimmer pickings for my Love, Like and Lean. But we’ll make due.

2023 record:

Loves: 1-1
Likes: 2-0
Leans: 2-0
Total: 5-1

NFL Week 3 Love, Like, Lean and Leave

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Week 3 Bet I Love: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings Over 54.0 (-110)

I pounced on the opening total of 50 when it came out Sunday evening, and I was delighted to see this total fly up to 53.5/54 at most books. Yet I still love this bet at this higher number.

This Chargers-Vikings game is a critical battle between two 0-2 teams and two offenses that love to sling the rock. The Chargers are playing faster under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, while Minnesota’s passing game ranks fourth in net yards per pass attempt.

But perhaps I buried the lead. Both of these defenses have been awfully generous. The Chargers rank dead-last in adjusted yards allowed per pass attempt, while Minnesota’s defense has given up 54 points on the year to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles.

While the spread for this game has ping-ponged back and forth, I feel much more confident in this game soaring over. This has the feel of a back-and-forth shootout between two desperate teams.

Week 3 Bet I Like: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 (-118)

I understand why this might come as a surprise. The Raiders were drubbed in Buffalo last week, while the Steelers defeated the Browns at home.

However, this game feels like a good matchup for Las Vegas. Offensively, I suspect Josh Jacobs will run wild against a Steelers defense that can’t stop the run without Cam Heyward. Jerome Ford ran for 106 yards on 16 carries after Nick Chubb got hurt. And Pittsburgh’s run defense is giving up 5.6 yards per rush so far this season. Yes, Pittsburgh has superstar pass rusher T.J. Watt, but the Raiders have yet to allow a sack this season. I suspect Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh McDaniels will leverage their running game and beat Pittsburgh with quick throws off play action to Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers.

Defensively, Vegas isn’t exactly trustworthy, but they have enough to contain a Pittsburgh offense that feels stuck in the mud. Kenny Pickett doesn’t look comfortable to begin his sophomore year. The passing game lacks a real threat outside of George Pickens and offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s play-calling is unimaginative.

The Steelers needed two defensive touchdowns just to beat Cleveland at home Monday night. Now, they’re traveling cross-country on a short week to face a Raiders team that can exploit their defensive weakness.

I like the Raiders, as well as the over on Jacobs’ rushing prop.

Week 3 Bet I Lean: Indianapolis Colts +8.0 vs. Baltimore Ravens (-112)

This is a yucky one, but the Colts haven’t been nearly as bad as expected coming into the season. Granted, their first two games have come against fellow AFC South foes Jacksonville and Houston. But the point is Indianapolis has been competitive.

The loss of rookie QB Anthony Richardson to a concussion definitely hurts this offense’s upside. However, Gardner Minshew looked just fine in relief of the dynamic rookie, throwing for 171 yards and a touchdown. Granted, that came against a beleaguered Texans defense. But Baltimore’s defense won’t be all that healthy either on Sunday.

That’s two of Baltimore’s most important defensive backs, two of their most important linemen and two offensive weapons all out for Sunday’s game.

We also have to factor in the situational spot. Baltimore is coming off a massive road victory in the division against Cincinnati and travels to Cleveland for an equally pivotal AFC North showdown next week. No NFL team takes any game for granted, but Baltimore could be looking ahead and to just get out with a win and good health.

Oh, and Tropical Storm Ophelia could be lingering during the game, with wind gusts up to 40 MPH possible. It stinks, but I’ll take the Colts getting over a touchdown in a game that could be really low-scoring.

Honorable mention: Packers -1 vs. Saints (-110)

Week 3 Game I’m Leaving Alone: Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions -3.0 (-118)

Part of the reason I’m staying away from this game is because I missed the best number when it was Detroit -5. But I’m also wondering if the market has overreacted to what Atlanta and Detroit have shown through two games. As someone who took Atlanta to beat Green Bay in Week 2, I recognize the Falcons were a little fortunate to get out with a win. Green Bay’s offense was humming most of the game, but fell apart in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, Detroit was just the toast of the NFL a week ago. And while we wisely gave out the Seahawks +5.5 last week, I suspect Detroit will be refocused and fired up after the home upset. Detroit’s also been pretty good against the run so far this season, and I’m not sure Desmond Ridder has the ability to take advantage of the weakened Lions secondary that no longer has C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

That said, it wouldn’t shock me if Atlanta walked in and beat the Lions on their home turf. When I can’t make a call one way or another, it’s best to just sit out.

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