NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 4 (2023)

by Matt Barbato |
Sep 30, 2023

Well, I didn’t love the board heading into Week 3, and it resulted in the first losing week of the year. My lean on Indianapolis was our only winner (and a great call, nonetheless). Funny enough, the games on which I’ve been most confident have let us down in the early going.

If you won on last week’s over in Minnesota-Los Angeles, it depended upon the number you got. Let’s be honest, if Kirk Cousins and Kevin O’Connell had their heads screwed on straight, the Vikings are scoring at the end of that game to cash the over for everyone.

Clearly, I’m not bitter at all.

That being said, we’re still well above .500 on the year. We’ll try to get back to our winning ways with a Week 4 slate on which I’m once again feeling a bit murky. Below are my love, like, lean and leave picks for Week 4.

2023 record:

Loves: 1-2
Likes: 2-1
Leans: 3-0
Total: 6-3

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NFL Week 4 Love, Like, Lean and Leave

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Love: Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans OVER 41

This one might catch some of you off guard. The Bengals offense once again looked stuck in the mud at times even in a win on Monday night. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans offense has looked rough all year and put up just three points against an elite Cleveland defense on the road.

So why on earth am I taking the over? Because this matchup offers strong advantages for both offenses, despite what they’ve looked like.

Yes, I know Joe Burrow could still be limited by that calf injury. But there’s no news to suggest that Burrow’s calf is any worse than it was last Monday night. And while Tennessee’s league-leading run defense will likely force the Bengals to be one-dimensional, that actually might play into the hands of what Zac Taylor wants to do against this defense. The Titans rank just 26th in pressure rate and 29th in adjusted yards per pass attempt allowed. Their secondary is arguably one of the league’s worst and allowed Deshaun Watson to dominate after two shaky performances to begin the year.

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could both go off in this matchup so long as Burrow is stable.

On the flip side, while the Bengals defense played well against the Rams in primetime, it’s worth noting that Los Angeles went 1-for-4 in the red zone and still averaged 5.5 yards per carry. The problem was Sean McVay coached one of his worst games in L.A., and completely abandoned the ground game. Cincinnati’s run defense in particular ranks 28th in expected points added. You can bank on the fact that Tennessee’s offense won’t abandon the running game, as it’s the team’s only shot at real success.

This total’s low for obvious reasons, but this feels like a good matchup for both offenses to outperform expectations.

Like: Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

Going in front of this Dolphins freight train is obviously risky business. But I have a sense the Dolphins freight train stops in Buffalo.

We saw Miami’s defense get torched by the only reputable offense it’s faced in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers. But it wasn’t Justin Herbert doing the bulk of the torching. Instead, it was a Chargers running game that ran for 233 yards on 40 attempts. Since then, Miami has surrendered only 88 and 69 rushing yards in their past two games, primarily because they’ve forced teams to the air after jumping out to sizable leads.

But against an offense that can keep up, it’s clear Miami has a vulnerability against the ground. I’ll go ahead and trust Josh Allen and company to keep up with Tua Tagovailoa and the ‘Phins attack. And while this might come as a surprise, Buffalo actually ranks third in the NFL averaging five yards per rush attempt. While the offense still runs through Allen, I suspect we’ll see a more balanced attack from Buffalo in an attempt to stay ahead of schedule and keep Miami’s offense on the sideline.

On the other side, coach Sean McDermott has given Tagovailoa some struggles in previous meetings. McDermott is 4-1 in games Tua has started, while Tua has averaged only 200 yards and thrown just four touchdowns to four interceptions. A Buffalo pass defense that’s held opposing passing attacks to just 1.7 adjusted net yards per pass attempt could have success limiting Miami’s speedy duo at receiver.

While scheming for Miami’s high-profile offense isn’t easy, this feels like a statement game for a Buffalo defense looking to secure its first signature win and reclaim its place atop the AFC East. I’d take the Bills at -3 or better.

Lean: Los Angeles Rams (+1) at Indianapolis Colts

Emotional and situational spots aren’t as prevalent in the NFL as it is in college football. That being said, Indianapolis is coming off of a gritty overtime upset on the road over the Baltimore Ravens, while the Rams have a short week to bounce back after falling to the Bengals.

The big issue for Los Angeles a week ago was, as mentioned above, McVay giving up on the ground game in what was a pretty close affair the entire way. The other issue for the Rams was pressure, as Matthew Stafford was sacked six times in Monday night’s loss.

The good news for Los Angeles is Indy’s pass rush might not be quite as ferocious. The Colts rank 20th in QB hits on the year and are middle of the road in pressure rate. Stafford should be more upright in this game, and when he’s been protected he’s been pretty good.

McVay is 12-8-3 as a road underdog during his Rams tenure, and 21-13-4 after a loss ATS. While rest might be a concern, McVay’s Rams are just 7-8-1 ATS since 2017 with a rest disadvantage, which helps quell those concerns.

I just think there’s a reason this line isn’t closer to Indy -3, and it’s because the Colts are a bit overvalued after a monstrous win against a banged up Baltimore team in the rain.

Leave: Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Nope, I’m not going to do it. I don’t care if a team that got beat by 50 points the week prior is laying points on the road the following week. The Bears have given me nothing to believe they are worthy of a bet. And you sure as heck aren’t laying points with Russell Wilson and this defense.

It’s Bears or nothing here. And if you must place a wager on Chicago, you can take some solace in the fact that Denver ranks dead-last in pressure rate, which has been what’s plagued the Bears offense this year. The only problem is that Justin Fields might be worse with more time, as he’s clearly unsure how to read the field.

Yeah, just stay away. Or fade these pathetic defenses and take the over.

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