NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets & Picks (Bills vs. Jets)
Week 6 of the NFL season has just one Monday Night Football game, but we’ll return to two in Week 7. This week, it’s the Buffalo Bills on the road against the New York Jets. Below are my best bets for this game. All wagers are for one unit unless otherwise stated.
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Best Week 6 Monday Night Football Picks (Bills vs. Jets)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jets +1 (-108)
The Jets may have fired head coach Robert Saleh less than a week ago, but we have plenty of recent examples of coaches getting fired before a game and the team getting the “interim bump,” meaning that the team tends to go out and get a win in its first game under that coach.
Recent examples include the Indianapolis Colts firing Frank Reich in 2022 and hiring Jeff Saturday and the Las Vegas Raiders firing Josh McDaniels and giving Antonio Pierce the interim job last season.
As for the teams on the field, the Jets are a strong defensive team, allowing just two passing touchdowns. They’ve also only allowed two rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs.
The Bills defense allows 4.7 yards per carry, so this will be an excellent spot for the Jets to get a running game going that’s been in dire need of getting going. At home, coming off the firing, with the defensive coordinator as the interim coach, I think the Jets come out, get the win and go to first in this division on the back of the defense interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich has coached for several seasons now.
Breece Hall: Race to 40 Rushing Yards (+145)
Switching things up a bit here and instead of an over/under prop, I’ll take Breece Hall as the first player to reach 40 rushing yards in the game. He’s second in odds behind Bills running back James Cook. As mentioned, the Bills defense has struggled against the run, allowing 23 carries for nearly 109 yards and 4.72 yards per carry per game.
This defense has allowed five running backs to reach 40 rushing yards through five games. In Week 5, Dare Ogunbowale wasn’t far behind with 30.
It’s been a rough go of it for Hall recently. He has 19 carries over the last two games for 27 yards. The Jets need to establish the running game early. With new play-caller Todd Downing installed, it’ll happen. Downing was the offensive coordinator at Tennessee in 2021 and 2022. In 2021, the Titans ranked fifth in the league in rushing yards per game. Look for him to emphasize getting the running game going early.
Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 Receptions (-130)
While I think the Jets get the running game going here, there’s no denying how involved wide receiver Garrett Wilson is in this offense. In Week 5, in London, he had 23 targets.
Now, I don’t expect that to repeat, of course, but Downing has been the passing game coordinator since 2023, so he’s quite familiar with getting Wilson the ball. Jets tight end Tyler Conklin is questionable for this game, so if he’s out, that’ll mean even more chances for Wilson. Wilson has had six receptions or more in just two games this season, but he had five in Weeks 3 and 4.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: