NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets & Picks (Cardinals vs. Chargers)
We’re back with two games on Monday Night Football. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baltimore Ravens start things off, followed by the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers at 9 PM ET.
The Chargers are 3-2 and coming off a win over the Denver Broncos, while the Cardinals are 2-4 coming off a loss on the road to the Green Bay Packers. Check out my best bets for this game below.
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Best Week 7 Monday Night Football Picks (Cardinals vs. Chargers)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Chargers -1 (-112)
The Chargers are technically road favorites here, but at -1, this is essentially a pick ’em.
That being said, I’m going with the Chargers here because of how their defense has performed this season. This season, opposing quarterbacks are averaging just 209.4 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game against them. The Chargers defense has also had one interception in each game.
While Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray will throw, he’s also a known rushing threat. This season, the Chargers have allowed 90 total rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, with Broncos rookie Bo Nix accounting for 61. The Chargers have only faced two quarterbacks willing to run, including Nix and Steelers quarterback Justin Fields, the latter of whom had just six rushing yards on six tries.
The Chargers are allowing 4.22 yards per carry against opposing running backs, but have only allowed one rushing touchdown.
The Cardinals throw on 57.7% of their offensive snaps, and I think the Chargers do an excellent job of slowing down this passing attack. Take the Chargers on the road.
J.K. Dobbins 80+ Rushing Yards (-120)
The last few weeks have been a bit wishy-washy for Dobbins. He started the season red hot, but in the previous three weeks, he’s averaged fewer than four yards per carry in each game. He’s gone under three yards per carry in two of those. In Week 6, he had 25 carries for 96 yards and one touchdown. He was productive, but not as efficient, with 3.8 yards per carry.
The Cardinals allow 26.67 carries per game for 124.83 yards (4.68 yards per carry) to opposing running backs. This season, four running backs have reached 80 rushing yards.
There have been some other games where the opponent spread some carries out. For example, in Week 6, the Packers had a massive lead; running back Josh Jacobs had 18 carries, Emanuel Wilson had seven, and Christopher Brooks had four.
The Chargers run the ball on 50.2% of their offensive snaps, and I expect Dobbins to continue to lead the depth chart. Dobbins may not be terribly efficient, but his volume will allow for 80 rushing yards or more.
Justin Herbert Over 0.5 INTs (+125)
The Cardinals defense has managed at least one interception in each of their last four games, and I think that trend continues.
As mentioned, the Chargers run the ball more than they pass (only by 0.4%, but still), and quarterback Justin Herbert has just one interception this season. Herbert is averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt. While these all seem to be positives for him, there have been some close calls this season.
According to Pro Football Focus, Herbert has seven turnover-worthy plays this season. So, while he has just one interception, there have been some plays that indicate it could be more.
The Cardinals defense has been hot with the turnovers; I think Herbert’s good luck runs out and he has an interception here.