NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Player Props: 49ers vs. Colts
Week 16 of the NFL season is here, and to close things out, we’ll see the Indianapolis Colts host the San Francisco 49ers. Here, you’ll find my top NFL Monday Night Football picks & player props.
The Colts are coming off a loss to the Seattle Seahawks on the road, but the final score was 18-16, which, considering that was Philip Rivers’ first NFL game in five years and they were two-touchdown underdogs, it wasn’t a bad showing.
As for the 49ers, they’ve won four straight, taking down the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans.
The 49ers are currently locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC, while the Colts aren’t currently in the playoffs. The Colts do have a path to the postseason, but they’ll require assistance to get there.
All that said, below are the three best bets for this game.
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Week 16’s Best NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Player Props: 49ers vs. Colts
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Colts +6.5 (-129)
The current spread is 5.5 points, but I’ve surrendered some line value to take the extra point.
As mentioned, the Colts were essentially underdogs by two touchdowns last week and only lost by two. If not for the final drive by the Seahawks, the Colts would’ve won the game.
The Seahawks didn’t score a single touchdown, but instead made six field goals.
The Colts, with Rivers under center (or, really, mostly out of shotgun), are at home, and he has another week under his belt to get a bit more acclimated. That said, we know what the offense will be. It’s going to be a collection of short passes and running the ball. Last week, Rivers averaged 4.4 yards per attempt. Rivers did complete 67% of his passes, but the Colts led the time of possession by about two minutes.
The 49ers primarily play zone, and regardless of Rivers’ current arm strength, he’ll be able to pick up some yardage. There’s going to be a lot of three-yard completions, five-yard runs, taking three plays to get first downs, etc.
The Colts will keep their offense out, and it’ll be low-scoring enough that the Colts cover this alt spread.
Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-300)
The odds on this prop bet aren’t fantastic at -300, but it makes a world of sense to take it.
While he didn’t score last week in Rivers’ debut, he received 25 carries and caught three passes. Those 28 touches were the most he’s had in a game since Week 10, when he had 32 carries and three catches.
The Seahawks do have one of the better run defenses, holding opposing running backs to 75.73 yards per game (28th), but the 49ers are squishier, allowing 20.21 carries for 90.29 yards (4.47 yards per carry) and 0.57 rushing scores per outing.
They allowed a rushing touchdown last week to Titans running back Tony Pollard, who added 14 carries for 104 yards.
Jonathan Taylor could receive 30 touches in this game, and any time a player could hit that mark, picking them to score a touchdown makes sense.
Philip Rivers Under 0.5 Interceptions (-103)
While Philip Rivers threw an interception last week, let’s be honest with ourselves: It was with under 20 seconds to go in the game, and the Colts were trying to push down the field quickly to kick a game-winning field goal. In the actual flow of the game, Rivers didn’t, however.
Given Rivers’ yards per attempt and that 33.3% of his attempts were behind the line of scrimmage and 29.6% of them were between 0-9 yards, I’m not sure there will be enough chances for the 49ers to pick off a pass. The 49ers’ defense hasn’t intercepted a pass over the last two weeks and have just five on the season.