Navigate

NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Player Props (Chargers vs. Cardinals)

by |

Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 7 from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 7's Monday Night Football Double-Header. In this special two-game MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchups as the seventh week of the NFL comes to a close. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to kick off your week.

Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football: Chargers vs. Cardinals.

For a limited time, you can save $30 off your first month of Fubo (Try for Free) >>

NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer: Chargers vs. Cardinals

Chargers vs. Cardinals

Sides:

  • The Chargers are 3-2 ATS this season.
  • The Chargers have scored first in each of their last five games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last seven road games.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last nine games against AFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Six of the Chargers' last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Chargers' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 4-1 toward the under this season.
  • Eight of the Chargers' last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Chargers’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Cardinals' last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line (2-1 O/U) this season, averaging 46.7 points per game.

Overall:

One of the most glaring trends regarding the Arizona Cardinals: They are 1-13 as home underdogs on the money line. ATS (6-8) is not nearly as glaring, but that's considering spreads fewer than two points like this matchup. Now, part of the Cardinals trend includes non-Kyler Murray-led Cardinals teams, but still, Arizona has shown almost zero signs of life as home underdogs, and that's considering Murray has been a great quarterback ATS as an underdog historically. His 62% ATS as an underdog ranks fourth among active QBs behind just Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson.

Part of this has been because it's been shootout after shootout in the desert. Arizona's defense continues to struggle - particularly against the run, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game.

This is problematic against the Chargers and their offense that ranks fifth lowest in pass rate over expectation (-7.7%).

The Cardinals also struggle to generate pressure – the fourth-lowest pressure rate (26.9%) after six weeks - creating more opportunities for the Chargers to pick up chunk gains through the air on Monday night. Per Next Gen Stats, Justin Herbert has completed 59 of his 78 attempts for 614 yards and four touchdowns when not pressured this season, recording a 115.0 passer rating (5th-highest in NFL). When facing pressure, Herbert's passer rating has dropped to 62.5 (8th-lowest).

Meanwhile, Arizona's offense struggled last week, scoring just 13 points in Green Bay. However, the Cardinals' offensive woes might be a tab bit overblown. They lost their No. 1 WR early in the game.

On the year, they are still 10th in yards per play, 14th in EPA/play, and 7th in rushing yards per game. It’s an average offense at worst, in my estimation.

Their strength has been with their run game, and it's possible they find success on the ground versus the Chargers. Per Next Gen Stats, The Chargers have utilized six or fewer defenders in the box on 82.2% of their defensive snaps this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

Despite this, the Chargers have allowed opponents to generate the 5th-fewest rushing yards over expected on designed runs against a light box (-36), and the fewest EPA per carry on such runs (-0.43). The Cardinals are one of only four teams in the NFL with multiple running backs that have generated at least +20 RYOE on runs against light boxes (Emari Demercado: +27 and James Conner: +24). Cardinals running backs have generated +0.14 per carry on such runs this season, 3rd-most in the NFL.

James Conner has at least 60.5 rushing yards in seven of his last ten home games. Three of the last four RBs the Chargers have faced have rushed for 64-plus yards.

The Chargers defense is SOLID, but Arizona's ground game might find success against some of these lighter boxes.

Still, L.A.'s defense ranks sixth overall in the fewest EPA/play allowed and top 8 in the fewest passing (8th) and rushing yards (6th) allowed.

It's no layup spot for Arizona's offense, although it does look like they will at least have wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. back after he left Week 6's game with a concussion.

I'm confident that the Chargers offense will score, but Arizona is a bit of a mystery box. We've seen the Chargers defense allow big yardage to some QBs (Bo Nix, 61 yards) and almost no yardage to others (Justin Fields, 6 yards). But in the aggregate, the Chargers have been bad against QB scrambles.

At their core, we know that Arizona wants to run the ball - seventh-lowest pass rate over expectation - and that's their clearest path to victory. They are 3-1 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season. I'm torn on the sides here, but I am leaning toward the over in this matchup at 43.5. There's no better cure for the Chargers' long streak of unders than a game played in Arizona.

Props:

J.K. Dobbins has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite.

The Chargers have scored first in each of their last five games.

Per Next Gen Stats, Trey McBride has caught 27 of his 31 targets against zone coverage this season, recording 265 yards (2nd-most among tight ends) and +16.3 receiving EPA (most).

McBride has also recorded a 31.6% target rate against zone coverage this season, up from his 21.9% target rate against man coverage. The Chargers defense has played zone coverage on 84.3% of opposing dropbacks this season (third-highest in the NFL) but has allowed just 5.9 yards per attempt to tight ends when doing so (sixth-fewest).

The Cardinals TE also leads the team in red-zone targets without a receiving touchdown this season.

Ladd McConkey was targeted eight times, catching four passes for 43 yards, accounting for a 26% target share and 97 air yards in Week 6. Fell just short of a TD with two targets inside the 10-yard line.

McConkey ran a route on 76% of the dropbacks despite suffering a head injury during the game. He does look to be okay, though, after returning to action. Assuming he is healthy, McConkey remains an anytime TD target. 27% target share on the season. Top 12 on the season. Great matchup on deck versus Arizona, who just roasted from the slot for multiple TDs against the Packers. Arizona is allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs (8th-highest percentage to slot WRs).

My Picks:

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App