NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Predictions: Bears vs. Seahawks
To close out Week 8 of the NFL season, the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears meet after making major deals ahead of the NFL trade deadline. The Seahawks traded for former Indianapolis Colts guard Quenton Nelson to shore up their interior offensive line, and the Bears sent the Tennessee Titans two first-round picks and more for Jeffery Simmons. We could see these two players match up right away in Seattle. With that, here are our best NFL Monday Night Football picks for this matchup.
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NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Predictions: Bears vs. Seahawks
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Seahawks -3 (-115)
The Seahawks are 4-3 heading into Week 8, and while the record isn’t spectacular, they’re coming off a massive 20-3 home win over the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. The week before, they went to overtime with the Denver Broncos, another excellent defense, but fell 17-14.
Now, their defense will face a Bears offense led by Caleb Williams, who’s played well since returning from injury. Across two games, he’s thrown for 613 yards and three touchdowns. That said, he now has to take the road to Seattle for the first time in his career, which is a completely different animal than any other NFL stadium.
Williams will face a defense that plays more Cover 6 than anyone else, but also plenty of Cover 3. Williams hasn’t faced much Cover 6 this season (just 14 dropbacks). Since last season (73 total dropbacks), he has one touchdown and two interceptions versus Cover 6.
On top of the Seahawks’ secondary, Williams will face a pass rush that has pressured opposing quarterbacks 114 times this season, third in the NFL. As for sacks, they’ve posted 176, tying them for fifth in the NFL.
When pressured this season, Williams has completed 46.7% of his passes. Sure, the Bears will also want to run the ball plenty, but the Seahawks allow fewer than 90 rushing yards per game. With Williams on the road in Seattle for the first time against a ferocious pass rush, the Seahawks will win and cover.
Caleb Williams Under 228.5 Passing Yards (-113)
As mentioned, Caleb Williams has been on a roll since returning from injury, passing for 300+ yards in back-to-back games, but he’ll struggle in this game. The Seahawks are allowing just 158 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, the fewest in the NFL.
No quarterback has surpassed 189 yards against them this season, and they’ve faced Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy. Furthermore, against the coverages the Seahawks play most (Cover 3 and Cover 6), Williams has averaged 7.4 yards per attempt, which is on the lower end.
Expect a low passing day for Williams.
Caleb Williams Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Going back to Caleb Williams, I like his over for rushing yards. In the first two games of the season, he smashed this line, rushing for 65 yards in Week 1 and 42 yards in Week 2 before his injury.
This game will mark three weeks since his return, so we could see him run a bit more. After all, he had four carries for three yards in his first game back and five carries for 18 yards in the second. He has 24 carries this season, and half of them have come under pressure. On those pressured carries, he’s averaging eight yards per attempt.
With the Seahawks among the best teams at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, Williams will have enough chances to get out, scramble and hit the over.