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NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Predictions: Bills vs. Rams

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Week 5 of the NFL season will close with a marquee matchup, as the Los Angeles Rams host the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are coming off their first loss of the season, losing 29-26 to the New England Patriots, while the Rams took down the Philadelphia Eagles 24-20 on the road. The Bills are now 3-1, whereas the Rams are 2-2. With this in mind, here are the best NFL Monday Night Football picks for this matchup.

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      NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Predictions: Bills vs. Rams

      (Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

      Buffalo Bills +3.5 (-115)

      The Bills are road underdogs against an offense that’s been playing better recently, especially with Puka Nacua back in the lineup, but the Rams are still averaging 21.3 points per game, 19th in the NFL. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has completed 61.1% of his passes for 1,189 yards, six touchdowns and six interceptions. Since Nacua’s return, Stafford has completed 62.7% of his passes for 317 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions.

      The Bills’ defense has allowed 26.8 points per game, but I’m a bit worried that the Rams and Stafford won’t take advantage.

      This season, the Bills play Cover 3 more than any other coverage. Against said coverage, Stafford has completed 61.8% of his passes for 399 yards (7.9 yards per attempt), one touchdown and one interception.

      Also, while the Bills’ defense has allowed a lot of points, it has 71 pressures, tied for the third-most in the NFL.

      Stafford has struggled under pressure, completing just 37.3% of his passes for 251 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions. His completion rate has been even worse when pressured with Nacua on the field (30%).

      This will be a high-scoring game, but the Bills should cover and perhaps even win outright.

      Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Interceptions (-119)

      Matthew Stafford has thrown six interceptions this season - two in each of his last two games and one in each of his first two games. Thus, he’s thrown an interception in every game this season.

      The Bills’ defense has hauled in an interception in each of the last two games, and now they face a quarterback who has struggled against pressure.

      Stafford has completed only 37.3% of his passes with three interceptions under pressure. The Bills are tied for third in pressures with 71, so Stafford could be under duress most of the evening. He’ll throw at least one interception on Monday.

      Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-180)

      This wager doesn’t provide much value at -180, but the numbers and stats are too good to pass up. Through four games, Kyren Williams has recorded three rushing scores and one receiving touchdown.

      Williams is set to face a Bills defense that has allowed three rushing and three receiving touchdowns to running backs. As a result, they’ve allowed a touchdown to a running back in every game.

      As for Williams, he gets plenty of work. He’s second on the team in target share (16%), catching 21 of his 25 targets. Even with Nacua on the field, his target share is still high (16.9%).

      As a ball-carrier, Williams has handled 58.7% of the running back carries, so it’s roughly a 60/40 split with Blake Corum. Still, he’s averaging nearly 19 touches per game.

      Williams gets enough volume that I feel confident enough to go out on a limb to predict he will score, even if there isn’t much value.

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