NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Predictions: Broncos vs. Chiefs
To close out Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL season, we’ll see the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos. There’s one massive storyline heading into this game: Both quarterbacks are coming off season-ending injuries.
For the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL in Week 15, and for the Broncos, Bo Nix broke his ankle in a playoff win over the Buffalo Bills.
Below, I have the three best bets for this matchup. Let’s dive in.
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Best NFL Monday Night Football Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Denver Broncos +2.5 (+100)
The vibes inside Arrowhead Stadium will be high with Mahomes making his return, Travis Kelce in his first game post-wedding and likely his last season, and with Taylor Swift in attendance, but the Broncos are the better team right now.
This offseason, the Broncos added wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to serve as their pseudo-WR1, and he’ll play a massive role in this offense. On the other side, the Chiefs did add running back Kenneth Walker III, who will likewise play a massive role, and also have wide receiver Rashee Rice (hopefully for a full season). Still, they also lost their two starting cornerbacks, Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie. Yes, they drafted Mansoor Delane to help replace that, but he’s a rookie entering Week 1 against a Sean Payton-coached offense.
I’m also in wait-and-see mode on this Chiefs offensive line, especially with Josh Simmons on the left side attempting to block Nik Bonitto, who had 14 sacks last season.
I expect a lower-scoring game, but the Broncos defense will be excellent while the Chiefs secondary adjusts to life without McDuffie and Watson.
Patrick Mahomes Under 3.5 Rush Attempts (-121)
Last season, Mahomes ran three times or fewer in just four of 15 games, but there’s one clear thing to look toward: The guy is coming off a torn ACL and didn’t play in the preseason.
Coming off the torn ACL, I cannot fathom that they’ll have Mahomes run a bunch. Not only that, but last season when the Chiefs and Broncos played, Mahomes had just one rush attempt, which was the fewest he had in any single game.
Finally, the Chiefs added Kenneth Walker III. Mahomes ran a lot last year because the run game was so ineffective, and they’ll hope to get it on track with Walker.
So, Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL, had just one carry against the Broncos last year, and they have a new big-money running back.
Take the under.
Adam Trautman Under 7.5 Receiving Yards (-107)
With a receiving line of just 7.5, it’s clear Trautman won’t be a big part of the game plan, but let’s be honest: Eight receiving yards can come off just one catch.
Last season, Trautman had a 3.9% target share, catching 20 passes for 195 yards and one touchdown.
Trautman had nine games with fewer than eight receiving yards.
While he did have a combined three catches for 32 yards against the Chiefs and reached at least eight receiving yards in both instances, we now have to factor in the addition of Waddle.
He’ll finish without a catch.