NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Predictions: Commanders vs. 49ers
To cap off Week 6, the undefeated San Francisco 49ers host the 1-3-1 Washington Commanders. The 49ers are coming off a massive win over the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, while the Commanders come off the most baffling tie I’ve ever seen in an NFL game. Will the 49ers remain undefeated? Will the Commanders come back with a vengeance after that embarrassing finish against the New York Giants? We’ll find out. Here are the best NFL Monday Night Football picks for this matchup.
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NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Predictions: Commanders vs. 49ers
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-108)
Admittedly, the hook makes me a bit cautious, but the 49ers are playing extremely well right now. At 5-0, they’re third in the NFL in points (30.8 per game), eighth in rushing yards (128.6 per game) and 13th in passing yards (236.4 per game). On defense, they’re also in the top 11 in rushing yards allowed per game (97.6; 11th) and passing yards allowed per game (199.6; 8th).
They take on a Commanders squad that’ll likely be without starting running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt. On top of that, the 49ers generally play Cover 3. Against that coverage, and even dating back to last season, Daniels has struggled overall, completing 64% of his passes for 596 yards (6.7 yards per attempt), one touchdown and one interception. This season, that completion rate is down to 57.7%.
Meanwhile, the Commanders’ defense plays a mix of coverages, but they play Cover 2 more than anyone in the league, and 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has sliced and diced it this season, completing 76.5% of his passes. If you look at the other coverages the Commanders play, including Cover 3 and Cover 4, Purdy has completed 72.4% of his passes on 97 dropbacks, with six touchdown passes.
George Kittle Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)
Through five games, George Kittle has the second-highest target share on the 49ers at 20.4%, catching 21 passes for 268 yards and scoring four touchdowns. Deebo Samuel has also been placed on injured reserve (IR), and when Samuel hasn’t been on the field, Kittle leads the 49ers in target share at 34% with three touchdown receptions.
In this game, Kittle faces a Commanders defense that’s allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends, including at least one in all but one game this season. At +110 odds, I’ll back Kittle to score.
Brock Purdy Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+132)
At +132, I’m loving Brock Purdy to go over 2.5 passing touchdowns. This season, he’s thrown for two or more touchdowns only twice, but in the three games he fell short, he threw two touchdown passes.
Purdy faces a Commanders defense that, as mentioned, mixes coverages. Still, against their top three coverages, Purdy has completed 72.4% of his passes for 799 yards (9.2 yards per attempt), six touchdowns and just one interception.
Additionally, the Commanders have allowed three or more touchdown passes in all but one game this season. Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Sam Darnold and Jameis Winston all threw three or more touchdown passes against them.
Purdy is in for a fantastic game.