NFL Monday Night Football Player Props (Week 16)

The 10-4 Green Bay Packers host the 5-9 New Orleans Saints to wrap up Week 16 on Monday Night Football. The Saints are playing without several of their top offensive skilled players, including RB Alvin Kamara, QB Derek Carr, and WR Chris Olave. It’s why oddsmakers have set the point spread to a whopping -14.5 in favor of the Packers in cold conditions at Lambeau Field tonight.

Last week, my NFL Monday Night Football Player Props (Week 15) went 1-1 on a doubleheader slate. Sam Darnold completed 24 passes to go over 20.5 pass completions for the fifth consecutive game during Minnesota’s 30-12 win against Chicago, which was our winning bet. Kirk Cousins struggled mightily against Las Vegas, despite an early touchdown pass to Drake London and ultimately winning the game, Cousins only attempted 17 passes, never coming close to going over 31.5 attempts. As a result, he was benched in favor of rookie QB Michael Penix Jr., who just led the Falcons to a 34-7 win over the New York Giants in Week 16.

I’ve got a pair of NFL Monday Night Football player props to bet on ahead of tonight’s NFC interdivisional matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL free bets and weekly analysis.

NFL MNF Week 16 Player Props

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Jordan Love – Interception – No (-122)

Green Bay’s franchise quarterback, Jordan Love, has played four consecutive games without throwing an interception. Tonight, he’ll face a Saints pass defense that has recorded only one turnover in its last four games played.

Factor in how porous New Orleans’ run defense is and we should see a heavy dose of RB Josh Jacobs just like we did against Seattle last week. Love is accurate and has improved his decision-making after throwing an interception in the first eight games he played this season.

The Packers have to win this game to clinch an NFC Wild Card berth and they’ll be dialed in early to make sure that they build a comfortable lead. Don’t expect a lot of passing volume from Love, who will be a glorified game manager, relying on Jacobs to shoulder the majority of Green Bay’s offense to exploit a struggling Saints run defense playing in freezing temperatures and already eliminated  from playoff contention.

Jordan Love Under 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)

I thought about targeting Josh Jacobs again but he may get a rest if the Packers go up early. Oddsmakers have set his lines for rush attempts and total rushing yards at 20.5 and 91.5, which seems realistic, but I’d prefer to correlate our first prop with another Jordan Love passing prop.

Let’s bet a unit on Love to finish Monday’s game with under 233.5 passing yards. If the game script goes according to plan, head coach Matt LaFleur will grind the clock and continue to feed Jacobs carries to pick up first downs and end drives with touchdowns. It’s impacted Love’s passing numbers lately, as Green Bay’s QB1 has gone under 233.5 passing yards in three of the Packers last four games played.

In a home matchup against San Francisco’s backup quarterback a few weeks ago, just like Spencer Rattler set to play under center for the Saints tonight, Love finished with 163 total passing yards. Jacobs will have a massive role in the offense and keep Love from going over 233.5 passing yards. Yes, New Orleans has been bad defending the pass for the majority of the season, yet they’ve held opponents under 234 total passing yards in three straight games.

Love does like to take deep shots downfield off of play action, so there will be some chunk plays tonight, but I anticipate a more conservative game plan in a favorable matchup against a bad Saints run defense. I’ll stick with Love’s passing props and back him to go under 233.5 total passing yards on Monday Night Football.