NFL Monday Night Football Player Props (Week 17)
NFL Week 17 concludes with an NFC Championship game rematch when the Detroit Lions travel to Santa Clara, California, to face the San Francisco 49ers. It’s been a great year for the Lions, entering tonight’s game 14-2. They will host the Minnesota Vikings in a high-stakes divisional matchup to determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.
The 49ers have struggled mightily in 2024, dealing with injuries to key players and failing to close out one-possession games. San Francisco has lost five of their last six games, only managing to beat the downtrodden Chicago Bears in Week 14. Three of these losses were by double-digit margins and a 12-6 loss at home to the Rams saw the 49ers fail to find the end zone.
Last week, my NFL Monday Night Football Player Props (Week 16) went 2-0, with Green Bay QB Jordan Love helping us cash both player props in a 34-0 rout against the New Orleans Saints. Green Bay leaned heavily on their rushing attack and built a quick multi-score lead. This resulted in Love extending his streak of no interceptions while he finished well under 233.5 passing yards, recording 182 passing yards for one touchdown to clinch an NFC playoff berth.
I’ve got two player props on tonight’s NFL Monday Night Football game between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL free bets and weekly analysis.
NFL MNF Week 17 Player Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Isaac Guerendo O 14.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
Detroit is a tough run defense to play against but San Francisco will remain run-centric within Kyle Shanahan’s West Coast offensive scheme on Monday night. The 49ers welcome back RB Isaac Guerendo, who missed Week 16 due to a hamstring injury.
Guerendo is a fourth-round rookie running back out of Louisville who has handled a big workload in back-to-back starts for San Francisco. Guerendo’s big frame and explosiveness make him an asset in this zone-run blocking scheme, which is why he’s recorded 15 or more carries against Chicago and the Los Angeles Rams.
The Lions winning tonight’s game has no impact on their upcoming high-stakes matchup against Minnesota in Week 18. Despite head coach Dan Campbell claiming that all starters will play, I believe Detroit let’s their foot off of the gas relatively early in this matchup.
Guerendo has 14 or more carries in three of his past seven games, primarily due to the brief return of star running back Christian McCaffrey. We need 15 carries from Guerendo tonight and he’ll likely shoulder the bulk of the workload out of the 49ers’ backfield. Last week, fourth-year RB Patrick Taylor logged eight carries for 24 rushing yards in a 29-17 loss to Miami. Taylor won’t steal many carries tonight and Guerendo should remain a focal point of the offense against a Detroit defense that may not be fully intact for four quarters.
Let’s bet a unit on Guerendo to go over 14.5 carries for his third straight game as the 49ers’ RB1 against the Lions on Monday Night Football.
Jared Goff U 250.5 Passing Yards (-110)
We’re sticking with the theme of Detroit resting its starters at some point in tonight’s game. Even if QB Jared Goff plays all 60 minutes, which is not guaranteed, he’ll face a 49ers defense that has only surrendered 251 or more passing yards in two of their 15 games played in 2024.
Goff has been on fire down the stretch, which is why oddsmakers have set this line at 250.5. He’s gone over this number in five of his last six games played, including three consecutive outings against Green Bay, Buffalo, and Chicago.
This streak will be snapped tonight, so let’s bet one more unit on Goff to finish with under 250.5 passing yards on the road against a tough 49ers pass defense and a soft run defense for RB Jahmyr Gibbs to exploit.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.