NFL Parlay and Best Bets for Ravens at Dolphins: Thursday Night Football (Week 10)
Parlay bets are a fun way to build your bankroll fast. However, the extra rewards come with extra risk — if you aren’t careful, parlays will burn through your bankroll faster than you can break even.
Fortunately, FanDuel Sportsbook offers users a $10 risk-free bet on NFL same-game parlays. So with nothing to lose (and bankroll to gain), how should you attack Thursday night’s action? For starters, expect to see me feature quite a few overs in this column. Since 2017, the over has hit in 60% of games played on Thursday; in 2020, it hit 57.1% of the time. I suspect that’s due to a lack of adequate rest and preparation, both of which make life hard for defensive players.
I advise that you approach this column as a strong parlay that features a handful of smart straight bets. I’ll include recommended unit sizes for each play, along with a recommended parlay size.
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Parlay YTD: 2-7-0 (-2.84u)
Straight Bets YTD: 7-8-0 (-0.97u)
Leg #1. Marquise Brown 60+ Receiving Yards
Related Straight Bet: Marquise Brown o60.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at FD Sportsbook)
Straight Bet Size: .5u
The last time these teams met, the Baltimore Ravens won by 49 points, and Lamar Jackson threw for 324 yards and five touchdowns. Marquise Brown caught four passes and turned them into a whopping 147 yards.
Brown is a big boom-or-bust guy, but it’s been mostly boom for him this year. He has gone over this total in all but two of his eight games. His volume hasn’t decreased since Rashod Bateman returned from injury in Week 6; Brown has averaged 77 yards per game since then.
Also, this Miami Dolphins team has been awful at defending against opposing wide receivers. They have surrendered the third-most yards per game to the position (192.8). More importantly, they have also allowed the most explosive passing plays (41) and the fourth-highest rate of explosive passing plays. Who better to capitalize on this weakness than Brown?
Leg #2. Marquise Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Straight Bet Odds: +105 at FD Sportsbook
Straight Bet Size: .5u
Let’s double-down on Brown to have a big game tonight. I’ve already talked about Miami’s struggles against wide receivers yardage-wise, but the Dolphins also struggle against the position touchdown-wise. They have given up the fourth-most touchdowns per game to the position (1.33). And if Brown breaks an explosive passing play, he would probably take it into the end zone. The speedy wide receiver has already scored six touchdowns this season, too.
Even if Brown doesn’t go for a long breakaway touchdown, he gets a surprising amount of red-zone work. He has just as many red-zone targets as Mark Andrews (7) and actually has one more than him (4 to 3) within the 10-yard line. Two of those four targets went for a touchdown. To say that differently, Brown has four touchdowns that required him to score from outside the red zone, and he trails only Andrews (2 to 3) in red-zone receiving scores.
Leg #3. Ravens -6.5
Related Straight Bet: Ravens -7 (-115 at FD Sportsbook)
Straight Bet Size: .5u
John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens have been very good against the spread when they play the Miami Dolphins. How good? Well, they’re undefeated.
Of course, it’s worth noting that the Dolphins have had multiple head coaches since Harbaugh took over the Ravens in 2008 — remember Tony Sparano? Brian Flores is a pretty solid head coach, but Miami doesn’t have the will to win right now. Their franchise quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, almost got replaced before the trade deadline by a man with multiple pending civil lawsuits. He is still dealing with a finger injury that will make accurate passing difficult. Sure, he is questionable for this matchup, which means Jacoby Brissett may start. However, Brissett’s last start against the Ravens (in 2018) also resulted in a seven-point loss.
Tease this spread down for your parlay. That way, you won’t get caught holding the bag because of the hook.
Total Odds: +412 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Parlay Bet Size: .75u
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.