NFL Parlay Bet for Thanksgiving Day
The COVID-19 pandemic might have thrown off your Thanksgiving traditions, but it hasn’t thrown off the NFL’s. The league plans to go ahead with its three-game slate despite some health scares this week, and that gives us a wonderful opportunity to chase our holiday gluttony with another vice — gambling.
Without any further ado, I present to you my three-leg parlay for Turkey Day! All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
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#1. Football Team (+3.5) at Cowboys — Alternate Spread (-143)
I don’t think that the Cowboys should be favored over the Football Team this Thanksgiving, but they’re one of the league’s most popular teams, so I can understand if public money has swayed sportsbooks’ lines.
Although they’re 3-7, Washington hasn’t lost by more than a field goal in their last five games. They suffered three-point losses to both the Giants and Lions, and their other loss to the Giants came by just one point. The team won their other two games, as they beat the Bengals by 11 points and the Cowboys by 22.
To be fair, Dallas won’t field the same team that Washington stomped a few weeks ago. They were without all-star offensive lineman Zack Martin that game, and Andy Dalton got hurt in the third quarter.
But this bet doesn’t require Washington to blow them out again. It doesn’t even require them to win at all! They just have to keep the game close, which is something that their dink-and-dunk, run-first offense should be able to accomplish. Washington is even the favorite at FiveThirtyEight, so I’m very confident in this line.
#2. Deshaun Watson UNDER 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-200)
Watson has tossed three or more passing touchdowns in the same game just twice in his ten games this season. He did so against the Jaguars in Week 5 and the Titans in Week 6. In his 47 career starts, Watson has done it just 12 times (25.5%).
The Clemson product’s legs give him an alternative means of scoring in the red zone. He has 16 career rushing scores across 13 games, and he’s only twice thrown at least three touchdowns while also running for a score.
While I suspect that this game should be relatively high scoring, especially since the consensus point total sits at 51.5, I think that Detroit’s vulnerabilities on the ground ensure that Watson won’t toss three scores.
The Lions have given up the third-most rushing yards per game (139), and they have given up the most rushing touchdowns (17). They have only surrendered 83 rushing yards to quarterbacks on the year, the third-fewest, but they’ve still allowed a pair of rushing scores to the position.
The line isn’t very generous here, but I think this should be a safe play, and its implied odds (66.7%) are worse than the under’s win rate in Watson’s career (74.5%).
#3. Steelers ML (-225)
I’ll wrap up this parlay with a moneyline sweetener. The Steelers have implied odds of 69.23% to win this game, but honestly, it should be closer to around 80-85%. Not only will the Ravens not have either Mark Ingram or J.K. Dobbins, but they also won’t have nose tackle Brandon Williams or linebacker Pernell McPhee.
Baltimore already lost to the Steelers at home with three of those four players. I don’t think that they’ll be able to compensate for their absence, and Pittsburgh’s moneyline should be a safe bet.
UPDATE: This game has been pushed to Sunday. Leave it out of your Thanksgiving Day parlay if you want to get your payout before Black Friday!
Total Odds: +270
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.