NFL Parlay Picks Week 11 (2020)
Never believe in the Chicago Bears. That was my lesson from Week 10. The Bears cost us our parlay with their pathetic offensive performance against the Minnesota Vikings. Nick Foles, Matt Nagy, do some serious soul searching over your bye week.
But unlike Nagy and the Bears offense, we’re actually trying to get better every week. Here are my parlay picks for Week 11:
View consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 11 of the NFL season >>
Leg 1: Atlanta Falcons +3.5 at New Orleans Saints
Earlier in the week, I gave out the Falcons at +5 when Jameis Winston was expected to start. Well, things have… changed.
Sean Payton’s fairy tales have come true. Drew Brees is hurt, which means Payton now has an excuse to start Taysom Hill. And I’m fading the heck out of it.
I’ll just be straightforward: Taysom Hill stinks. He was a nice college player who has become an annoying pest as a gadget player in New Orleans’ offense. Despite seeing the field pretty occasionally, Hill has proven nothing as a passer. In fact, he only has 18 pass attempts in three seasons.
I admit, there’s a high degree of uncertainty and a lack of film for the Falcons. But you’d have to think New Orleans’ passing game will take a significant hit Sunday with Hill under center instead of Winston. I’d expect a lot of designed runs for Hill and perhaps some college zone read concepts with Hill and Alvin Kamara.
While New Orleans boasts the league’s stingiest rush defense, that’s not really Atlanta’s forte. Matt Ryan should be in store for a big day against a Saints pass defense that’s been pretty shoddy, ranking 21st in yards allowed. The return of Calvin Ridley will only help, especially with Julio Jones likely matching up against Marshon Lattimore, who’s had an up and down season.
The Falcons have played the Saints tough as of late, and I like Atlanta’s chances of covering against Hill.
Leg 2: Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Cleveland Browns
It’s hard to back Philly after their awful loss to the Giants last weekend off its bye week. But the Eagles have come up with big road wins before when they seemed down and out. This is a good buy-low spot.
Philadelphia also is effective against the run, which is Cleveland’s greatest strength. Philadelphia’s front seven anchored by Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, and Malik Jackson allows just a 46% success rate on runs and are 10th in rushing efficiency defensively.
More importantly, Cleveland will be without its best defensive player, Myles Garrett. The NFL’s sack leader will miss the game after landing on the COVID-19/Reserve list. That’s a huge blow against an Eagles offensive line that’s allowed the most sacks in the league. No other Browns defender has more than 3.5 sacks.
With Garrett out, Carson Wentz should have plenty of time to pick apart Cleveland’s woeful secondary. The Browns have given up only 253 passing yards in their last two games, but we must remember that both those games were played in windy and rainy conditions. It’ll be another rainy day in Cleveland on Sunday, but the winds will only be around 10 miles per hour.
Aside from beating the Colts in another ugly win at home, the Browns have beaten Cincinnati twice, Washington, Dallas, and Houston. Expect an ugly cover, and maybe a straight-up win from Philadelphia.
Leg 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Tampa Bay is 1-2 in primetime this season, with their lone win coming in a tight contest against the New York Giants. Many believe Tom Brady’s early bedtime plays a role in Tampa’s struggles in primetime. I’m not buying that narrative.
What I am buying is Tampa Bay’s front seven against a Rams offensive line that’s without its anchor, left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Most quarterbacks struggle under pressure, but Jared Goff is particularly awful. I’m banking on Todd Bowles dialing up tons of exotic looks to throw off Goff, which will lead to a critical mistake or two.
Los Angeles’ defense is statistically better than Tampa’s. The Rams rank 2nd in yards per play (Tampa is 3rd) and second in points allowed (Tampa ranks 12th). But I’m more confident in Brady and his receiving group than I am in Goff and his pass catchers.
I’ll lay the points with the Bucs and hope they can overcome their primetime woes.
Parlay Odds: +564
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.