NFL Parlay Picks: Week 3 (2020)
The New York Jets screwed us.
For the second straight week, I lost an under bet on a garbage time Jets touchdown. And last week, Sam Darnold’s ridiculous cross-body touchdown pass cost us our three-leg parlay. The Jets are officially dead to me. And that’s coming from a fan of the team.
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But enough venting about the worst team in the NFL. We’ve come close each of the first two weeks, and now it’s time to bring home a W. My Week 3 parlay features two of the best head coaches in the league who are both coming off a loss, plus my favorite road underdog of the week.
Leg 1: New England Patriots -5.5 vs. Las Vegas
I’m not much of a trend player, but I take them into account when the trend involves Bill Belichick.
Belichick and the Pats fell one yard short of beating the Seattle Seahawks on the road last week. Since 2003, Belichick is 42-18 ATS after a straight up loss, according to TeamRankings.com. He’s also 88-63-5 as a home favorite during that time span. That’s nothing short of ridiculous.
Meanwhile, the Raiders will have to travel to Foxborough on a short week after christening their new Vegas home with an upset over the New Orleans Saints. The Saints were uncharacteristically sloppy in that game, especially on defense. New Orleans committed 10 penalties that cost them 129 yards and allowed Vegas to go 10-of-17 on third down and 2-for-2 on fourth down.
Plus, the Saints were too stubborn to give Malcolm Jenkins help covering Darren Waller. The tight end went bananas Monday night, catching 12 of 16 targets for 105 yards and one touchdown.
Waller’s really good, but he’s also the only proven weapon Vegas has in the passing game. Look no further than the team’s target distribution. Waller has 24 targets in two games. The next closest is Josh Jacobs with nine targets, then Henry Ruggs III with eight targets.
If there’s anyone I trust to phase Waller out of a game, it’s Belichick. Expect the Pats to have safety help on Waller all day while Stephon Gilmore blankets some combination of Nelson Agholor, Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and rookie Bryan Edwards on the outside. That’ll make life really difficult for Derek Carr, especially if Jacobs can’t go because of a hip injury.
Offensively, Cam Newton shouldn’t face much resistance from a Vegas secondary that’s given up 7.8 net yards per pass attempt. The Raiders rank 26th in total defense and 20th in scoring defense. I love New England to stifle the Raiders and win in convincing fashion.
Leg 2: New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Green Bay
Sean Payton is the second elite coach who’s coming off of a loss that I’m backing. As I mentioned above, the Saints were just a mess Monday night. Drew Brees looked rusty or, dare I say, washed up. And the defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. Plus, Payton got fined $100,000 for not wearing his mask on the sidelines Monday night!
Okay, the last sentence doesn’t really mean much. But it helps fuel my narrative that Payton and the Saints will be pretty motivated coming home to face the 2-0 Green Bay Packers. And Payton’s another great coach to back off a loss. Since 2006 (Payton’s first season in New Orleans), the Saints are 50-32 against the spread after a loss.
As someone who hyped up Aaron Rodgers for a bounce-back in fantasy football, his outburst the last two weeks hasn’t surprised me. The Packers have put up 85 points and 1,010 total yards in two games against the Vikings and Lions, two teams who are a mess defensively. The Saints will be a step up in class for Green Bay, who might be without receiver Davante Adams.
If Adams can’t go or is limited by a hamstring injury suffered in Week 2, the Packers passing game will be in big trouble. I bet they’ll be wishing they drafted a receiver this offseason if they’re forced to go with Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their starters. Green Bay may throw more to running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, but New Orleans has the linebackers to keep up in coverage.
While I admit I’m concerned about Brees, I think New Orleans will be able to run the ball at will against Green Bay. The Packers have only given up 223 rushing yards in two games this season, but they’re allowing 5.2 rushing yards per attempt, the third-worst mark in the league.
Expect another big day from Alvin Kamara that sets up plenty of high-percentage, play-action opportunities for Brees. The Saints should get back on track against the Packers. This is a great spot to buy low on New Orleans and sell high on Green Bay.
Leg 3: Dallas Cowboys +5 at Seattle
Betting against Seattle as a home favorite might feel like risky business. The Seahawks are 33-26-2 ATS as a home favorite with Russell Wilson at the helm. But the Seahawks seem to almost always play close games, and this is too many points to lay against the Cowboys.
The Cowboys pulled off a miraculous comeback against Atlanta last week, rallying from a 15-point deficit in the game’s final eight minutes. But believe it or not, the Cowboys should’ve beaten the Falcons handily last week. The Cowboys out-gained Atlanta 570-390, but three lost fumbles on the team’s first five drives put them in an early hole. With better late-game execution against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1, Dallas could easily be 2-0.
Dak Prescott and the talented Cowboys passing game should have plenty of success against a Seattle secondary that’s still working in new pieces Quinton Dunbar and Jamal Adams. The Seahawks have given up the most passing yards in the league (831) through two games and might be without Dunbar, who’s dealing with a knee injury. Seattle also has struggled to get to the passer and just lost linebacker Bruce Irvin for the season.
I fully acknowledge Dallas hasn’t been much better defensively and won’t have cornerback Chidobe Awuzie Sunday. But I’m betting on Dak and the Cowboys keeping up with Russ and the Seahawks in what should be an explosive matchup. This will be another close contest at CenturyLink Field.
Full 3-team parlay (+608): New England -5.5, New Orleans -3, Dallas +5
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.