NFL Parlay Picks: Week 4 (2020)

Yikes. At least Bill Belichick did his job covering the spread in Week 3. Unfortunately, the Saints lost straight up to Green Bay and the Cowboys couldn’t stop a nosebleed when it mattered most.

With the Steelers-Titans game currently in flux, I’m going to submit a two-leg parlay this week. However, if we get word of a rescheduled date for this matchup, I’d add the Steelers at -3 or better.

Here’s my parlay card for Week 4.

View consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 4 of the NFL >>

Leg 1: Buccaneers-Chargers under 43

This number first opened at 45.5 and has since dropped to 43. It may seem like taboo to fade Tom Brady and the Buccaneers offense, but we also have to consider the opponent. The Chargers are built to make games ugly, especially now that rookie quarterback Justin Herbert is under center.

The under has hit in all three Chargers games, as the offense has failed to score more than 20 points in a game this season. After catching the Chiefs by surprise in Week 2, Herbert was sloppy against a poor Carolina defense. The Oregon product threw an interception and fumbled twice, losing one of them.

Tampa Bay will be the best defense Herbert has seen thus far in his young career. The Bucs have a ferocious front seven that has a pass rush win rate of 56% (2nd in the league). Tampa Bay’s pass rushers also get home, as they rank 3rd in the NFL with 12 sacks. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will surely devise some blitz packages that could confuse the rookie.

L.A. doesn’t have star safety Derwin James, but is still ranked 8th in total defense and 4th in points allowed through three weeks. The Chargers are also led by a strong front seven that ranks 5th in the league in pressures. Tampa Bay’s offensive line has allowed 14 pressures and 5 sacks.

Brady is averaging only 2.5 seconds in the pocket, and I expect him to continue to get the ball out quickly to neutralize Bosa and the Chargers pass rush. The Bucs will try to sustain long drives, but that’ll be much harder without star receiver Chris Godwin, who is currently in concussion protocol.

Tampa has an elite run defense and should do more than enough to fluster Herbert. I’ll take the under in what I expect to be a 24-10 game.

Leg 2: New Orleans Saints -4 at Detroit Lions 

I feel a little queasy laying points on the road with Sean Payton’s Saints after they let me down last week. But I think the Saints are a bit undervalued heading into Detroit off two losses. If Payton didn’t get cute and Taysom Hill didn’t fumble early in the fourth quarter with the game tied, the Saints maybe would’ve beaten the Packers and would instead sit at 2-1.

Against Detroit, I expect the Saints to stick with what works best: feeding Alvin Kamara. The tailback has gotten off to a remarkable start to the season, racking up 438 total yards and 6 touchdowns. He gets a great matchup against a Detroit defense that’s allowed the third-most rushing yards in the league to this point. Just two weeks ago the Lions allowed Aaron Jones to go off for 234 yards and three touchdowns. Kamara could enjoy similar success against Detroit’s lousy defense Sunday.

Even more exciting is that star receiver Michael Thomas could return from a hamstring injury that’s sidelined him the last couple of weeks. His presence would only help Drew Brees.

Defensively, I expect Marshon Lattimore to have success against Kenny Golladay. New Orleans also has the 6th best rushing defense in the league, while Detroit ranks 22nd in rushing offense. The Saints haven’t had an elite pass rush so far this season, but they could find more success against the Lions offensive line, which has allowed 9 sacks.

The Saints will be plenty motivated after two straight losses. And while Detroit could keep it within a score, I’m confident in the Saints to win by a touchdown.

Full 3-team parlay +265 at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.